Was Ichiro Suzuki a great leadoff man during the 2001-3 seasons?

by Cyril Morong

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No. From 2001-3, Ichiro Suzuki had an OBP of .374. He averaged 41.44 stolen bases (SBs) per 162 games with 12.67 caught stealing (CS). Using the linear weights run values (invented by Pete Palmer) from the new Baseball Encyclopedia of .22 for a SB and -.38 for a CS, that works out to 4.3 BSR (base stealing runs). This would account for less than half a win per season. In my opinion, the data does not warrant calling him a great leadoff man over this time period. Others may call him great based on this evidence. But I think it is reasonable to say he was not great.

As of Sept. 11, 2004, his OBP was .414 with 34 SB and just 10 CS. Three or four years of this would make him a great leadoff hitter. Now he has probably been the best leadoff man these past 4 years, but when we look at the last 20 years or so later, he will not look so great. And being a leadoff man is not specialized in the way catching or playing SS is. Many players could leadoff without being a big detriment to their team. This is not true for catching or SS.

I show that his base stealing is only good compared to other players. I show that his OBP is good, but not great compared to other players. I created a "leadoff index" that ranks him high but not nearly as high as others. His extra bases per plate appearance and adjusted OPS are also not extraordinary. Five different leadoff men, from 1980-2002 had seasons with an Offensive winning percentage of 50 or more points greater than the one that Suzuki had in 2001. In total, 37 higher. There were 15 cases in the same time period of leadoff men having more BSR, a higher adjusted OPS and a higher OBP relative to the league average in a season than Suzuki did in 2001 ((3 non-leadoff men also accomplished this). Most of this I show in tables at the end of this paper. The 2001 Mariners would have scored just 5 fewer runs if Olerud had been their leadoff man (based on a simulation).

In the course of analyzing Suzuki, I compare him to some other leadoff men. If you think I left any important leadoff men out, please let me know.

Was he a great leadoff man from 2001-3?

He ranked 10^th, 14^th and 30^th in OBP in the AL, respectively, over the past three seasons. In 2002, with a .388 OBP (his highest of the three seasons), he was about 17% above the league average. Since 1960, this would rank him 349^th for batting title qualifiers (in non-DH years or leagues, each player got compared to non-pitchers). I used the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia.

He would rank 127^th all-time in OBP relative to the league average, if compared to all players with 5000 or more plate appearances. How does he compare to some well-known leadoff men? (again, many leadoff men are left out)

Player	Ratio
Henderson	1.207
Bishop	1.782
Huggins	1.168
Ashburn	1.168
Hack	1.162
Raines	1.156
Rose	1.143
Butler	1.142
Yost	1.142
Dykstra	1.133
Suzuki	1.123

Henderson was 20.7% above the league average. I did not check all leadoff men in history. Just some that I knew batted leadoff fairly often. Some players here did sometimes bat in other positions. Again, this is relative to non-pitchers. In the case of Suzuki and Henderson, their league average gets raised because the DH is a little better than the average hitter in OBP. But I think this effect will be slight after checking a few years on Retrosheet (where I was able to check if some guys actually did leadoff).

In BSR, I ranked every player with at least 50 SBs from 1980-2002. Vince Coleman had the best, in 1986, with 18.22 (107 SBs, 14 CS). There were seven seasons of 14 or more, twice what Suzuki had in 2001, which was 7 (56 SBs, 14 CS). In this group, Suzuki’s 7 BSR were the 71^st highest total.

I also looked at some select leadoff men in selected seasons from 1980 on and how they did in individual season. These included Boggs, Henderson, Raines, Butler, Molitor, and Dykstra. In most years for these players, at least 75% of their at-bats (ABs) were leading off. None were less than 33% (I did a rough estimate while going through Retrosheet). A season where Boggs, for example, had less than 33% of his ABs leading off was not included. Total of 42 seasons, so many leadoff hitters are not included in the ranking or comparisons.

I found at 28 seasons (with 300+ ABs) that had an OBP of .400 or higher, something Suzuki did not do before 2004. Just from these players, there were 40 seasons better than Suzuki’s .381 of 2001. I also counted 9 seasons of .420 or more by players who had at least 75% of their ABs leading off.

I also looked at adjusted OPS. OPS is OBP + slugging percentage (SLG). Adjusted OPS is relative to the league average and takes park effects into account. Suzuki had 128 in 2001. It is 31^st among these 42 seasons. There were 9 seasons of 150 or more, with the highest being Henderson at 190 in 1990. He was almost exclusively a leadoff man. He had 5 seasons better than 150.

The three seasons where Raines had over 90% of his ABs leading off he had adjusted OPS of 155, 134, and 129. All better than what Suzuki had in 2001.

Dykstra had 3 seasons with an OBP over .400. His two best adjusted OPS years were 144 and 137, both better than Suzuki in 2001 (128).

Molitor in 1987 had an OBP of .438 and an adjusted OPS of 159, both well above Suzuki’s 2001 numbers. Molitor also had 6.1 BSR, close to Suzuki’s 7 of 2001.

Boggs in 1989 had 80% of his ABs leading off. His OBP was .430. His adjusted OPS was 141. In 1991, he had 77.7% of his ABs leading off. He a .421 OBP and a 138 adjusted OPS. In both years his OBP and adjusted OPS were well above Suzuki’s .381 and 128 of 2001. It is true that Suzuki scored a greater percentage of the time he reached base (due to his speed and stealing). But that partly depends on the hitters who follow you. The 1989 Red Sox batted .277 and slugged .403. In 1991, they had .269 and .401. The Mariners in 2001 batted .288 and slugged .445. So Suzuki had some help there.

Brett Butler went over .400 in OBP 3 times. He even had two seasons above 128 in adjusted OPS, what Suzuki had in 2001. Butler had seasons of 133 and 131.

In 2001, Suzuki had an OBP of .381 and 7 BSR. His OBP was 14% above the league average. Henderson had 9 seasons where he had both an OBP that was at least 20% better than the league average and more BSR than Suzuki had in 2001. In fact, Henderson had 2 seasons that more than doubled 7 BSR. In 1983 he had 16.54 while having an OBP 26.2% above the league average. In 1988 he had 15.52 BSR while his OBP was 21.6% above the league average.

In those three seasons where Raines had over 90% of his ABs leading off, he had the following BSR and relative OBP combinations: 11.98/23.4%, 14.48/18.4%, and 11.44/19.2%. Again, all much better than Suzuki had in 2001.

When it comes to great leadoff men, Henderson and Raines raised the bar very high. Only in 2004 is Ichiro Suzuki even approaching their achievements. During the 2001-3 seasons he did not achieve greatness in stealing or in getting on base. This is especially true when you look at some of the seasons by the others as well (Boggs, Dykstra, Molitor, Butler)

I almost forgot Craig Biggio. From 1996-2000, 72.3% of his ABs were leading off. His OBP was .389 over the whole period (Suzuki had .374 from 2001-3). Biggio averaged about 4 BSR per season, close to what Suzuki did over 2001-3. He had two seasons with an adjusted OPS in the 140s. His adjusted OPS over the 5 years was 123.4, close to Suzuki’s best season of 128 in 2001. In 1998, he had an OPB of .403 with 7.96 BSR and an adjusted OPS of 141. All better than Suzuki in 2001.

Kenny Lofton: In 1993, he had 10.1 BSR and his OBP (.408) was 21% above the league average. In 1994, he had 8.64 BSR and his OBP (.412) was 19.4% above the league average and his adjusted OPS was 143.

Chuck Knoblauch: In 1995, his OBP (.424) was 23.3% above the league average and his adjusted OPS was 137. In 1996, his OBP (.448) was 28% above the league average and his adjusted OPS was 142. In 1997, he had 9.84 BSR and his OBP (.390) was 15% above the league.(Again, Suzuki in 2001 had 7 BSR, and adjusted OPS of 128 and his OBP was 14.1% above the league average).

Has Suzuki been hurt by Safeco Field in OBP? Here are his OBPs for the three seasons:

home/road OBP

379/384

372/403

366/338

The simple average for home games is .372 and for road games it is .375. In 2002, the OBP in games at Safeco by all hitters was .328 (just a simple average of what the Mariner hitters got and the pitchers allowed). So his home OBP of .372 was 13.4% above that. In Mariner road games, the OBP was .335. His .403 is 20.3% above that. The average of those two is 16.85% better than average. Earlier I said his .388 in 2002 was 17% better than the league average and that this would be the 349^th best year since 1960 for qualifiers.

In fact, here are the top 40 hitters in OBP from 2000-2002 with 1000 or more plate appearances. Suzuki would rank 38^th if we gave him a .382 OBP (I would have used 2001-03, but my Sabermetric encyclopedia only goes up through 2002). Suzuki’s rank of 34 shown below only includes his 2001-2 seasons.

1 Barry Bonds .512

2 Jason Giambi .462

3 Todd Helton .441

4 Manny Ramirez .435

5 Larry Walker .429

6 Carlos Delgado .429

7 Brian Giles .428

8 Chipper Jones .422

9 Gary Sheffield .420

10 Jim Thome .419

11 Edgar Martinez .418

12 Sammy Sosa .415

13 Jim Edmonds .414

14 Lance Berkman .411

15 Jeff Bagwell .408

16 Bobby Abreu .407

17 Luis Gonzalez .407

18 Alex Rodriguez .403

19 Vladimir Guerrero .402

20 Bernie Williams .401

21 Mike Sweeney .399

22 John Olerud .399

23 Albert Pujols .399

24 Frank Thomas .396

25 Rafael Palmeiro .389

26 David Segui .389

27 Ryan Klesko .388

28 Derek Jeter .388

29 Nomar Garciaparra .388

30 Jeff Kent .387

31 J.D. Drew .387

32 Cliff Floyd .386

33 Jeremy Giambi .385

34 Ichiro Suzuki .385

35 Tim Salmon .384

36 Jorge Posada .384

37 Edgardo Alfonzo .383

38 Moises Alou .383

39 Ellis Burks .381

40 Mark Grace .381

What about comparing Suzuki to all those “select” leadoff men I mentioned? I do so in the table below.

Rank	Player	Freq	YEAR	PA	SB	CS	OBP	BSR	ADD BB	OBP INC	ADJ OBP	LG AVG	Index
1	Boggs	33	1988	719	2	3	0.476	-0.7	-1.21	-0.002	0.474	0.324	1.464
2	Henderson	75	1990	592	65	10	0.439	10.5	18.10	0.031	0.470	0.327	1.436
3	Henderson	75	1983	621	108	19	0.414	16.5	28.52	0.046	0.460	0.328	1.402
4	Henderson	75	1985	654	80	10	0.419	13.8	23.79	0.036	0.455	0.327	1.393
5	Molitor	75	1987	537	45	10	0.438	6.1	10.52	0.020	0.458	0.333	1.374
6	Henderson	75	1992	500	48	11	0.426	6.38	11.00	0.022	0.448	0.328	1.366
7	Boggs	33	1986	689	0	4	0.453	-1.52	-2.62	-0.004	0.449	0.330	1.361
8	Raines	75	1981	363	71	11	0.391	11.4	19.72	0.054	0.445	0.328	1.358
9	Henderson	75	1980	716	100	26	0.420	12.1	20.90	0.029	0.449	0.331	1.357
10	Henderson	75	1993	609	53	8	0.432	8.62	14.86	0.024	0.456	0.337	1.354
11	Henderson	75	1989	674	77	14	0.411	11.6	20.03	0.030	0.441	0.326	1.352
12	Henderson	75	1988	644	93	13	0.394	15.5	26.76	0.042	0.436	0.324	1.344
13	Henderson	75	1987	440	41	8	0.423	5.98	10.31	0.023	0.446	0.333	1.341
14	Raines	33	1987	627	50	5	0.429	9.1	15.69	0.025	0.454	0.339	1.339
15	Raines	33	1986	663	70	9	0.413	12	20.66	0.031	0.444	0.332	1.338
16	Raines	75	1985	662	70	9	0.405	12	20.66	0.031	0.436	0.328	1.330
17	Henderson	75	1982	656	130	42	0.398	12.6	21.79	0.033	0.431	0.328	1.315
18	Henderson	75	1981	493	56	22	0.408	3.96	6.83	0.014	0.422	0.321	1.314
19	Boggs	75	1989	742	2	6	0.430	-1.84	-3.17	-0.004	0.426	0.326	1.306
20	Dykstra	75	1990	689	33	5	0.418	5.36	9.24	0.013	0.431	0.331	1.303
21	Henderson	75	1984	596	66	18	0.399	7.68	13.24	0.022	0.421	0.326	1.292
22	Raines	33	1984	715	75	10	0.393	12.7	21.90	0.031	0.424	0.328	1.292
23	Raines	75	1983	718	90	14	0.393	14.5	24.97	0.035	0.428	0.332	1.288
24	Butler	33	1992	652	41	21	0.413	1.04	1.79	0.003	0.416	0.325	1.279
25	Raines	75	1989	618	41	9	0.395	5.6	9.66	0.016	0.411	0.321	1.279
26	Boggs	75	1991	641	1	2	0.421	-0.54	-0.93	-0.001	0.420	0.329	1.275
27	Dykstra	75	1993	773	37	12	0.420	3.58	6.17	0.008	0.428	0.336	1.274
28	Henderson	75	1991	578	58	18	0.400	5.92	10.21	0.018	0.418	0.329	1.269
29	Boggs	75	1984	718	3	2	0.407	-0.1	-0.17	0.000	0.407	0.326	1.248
30	Butler	75	1988	671	43	20	0.393	1.86	3.21	0.005	0.398	0.320	1.243
31	Butler	75	1994	489	27	8	0.411	2.9	5.00	0.010	0.421	0.342	1.232
32	Henderson	75	1996	602	37	15	0.410	2.44	4.21	0.007	0.417	0.339	1.230
33	Butler	75	1990	725	51	19	0.397	4	6.90	0.010	0.407	0.331	1.228
34	Molitor	75	1991	749	19	8	0.399	1.14	1.97	0.003	0.402	0.329	1.221
35	Suzuki	75	2001	734	56	14	0.391	7	12.07	0.016	0.407	0.334	1.218
36	Butler	75	1991	726	38	28	0.401	-2.28	-3.93	-0.005	0.396	0.325	1.217
37	Henderson	75	1995	486	32	10	0.407	3.24	5.59	0.011	0.418	0.344	1.217
38	Butler	75	1987	616	33	16	0.399	1.18	2.03	0.003	0.402	0.333	1.208
39	Dykstra	75	1994	386	15	4	0.404	1.78	3.07	0.008	0.412	0.342	1.205
40	Boggs	33	1995	541	1	1	0.412	-0.16	-0.28	-0.001	0.411	0.344	1.196
41	Boggs	33	1990	713	0	0	0.386	0	0.00	0.000	0.386	0.327	1.180
42	Boggs	33	1992	598	1	3	0.353	-0.92	-1.59	-0.003	0.350	0.328	1.068

Freq means how frequently the guy batted leadoff. 33 means at least 33% of the time and 75 means at least 75% of the time. I calculated how many additional walks a guy would have to get to equal the run value of his SB and CS (the BSR). I assumed that he could change outs into walks, so that an added walk has a value of .33 and one less out means you don’t get a -.25, so you add another .25 (using the linear weights values from Pete Palmer). So you add .58 for each additional walk. I added enough walks so that the increased run value from those walks would equal each guy’s BSR (see the ADD BB column). Then I figured how much those walks would increase his OBP (see OBP INC). The new OBP is the ADJ OBP column.

For Suzuki, you will notice that he has a .391 OBP for 2001, higher than what he really had. I adjusted it upwards to reflect his lower OBP at home in Safeco Field.

Then I divided each guy’s adjusted OBP by the league OBP (for National League hitters, I used non-pitchers only to get the average, thanks again to the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia). That number is called the INDEX. Then I ranked them. Suzuki is 35^th among these 42 leadoff men, which of course does not include all leadoff men from 1980-2003. The average index was 1.29, so he was well below that in 2001. Now most of these guys did not get much help from their home parks (Boggs is the exception). If they did, please let me know.

I also looked at how many extra-bases these guys got on 2Bs, 3Bs, and HRs per PA. I did this because a leadoff man does not just have to get himself on, but get into scoring position.

Rank	Player	YEAR	XB per PA
1	Henderson	1990	0.208
2	Molitor	1987	0.184
3	Henderson	1985	0.168
4	Henderson	1987	0.168
5	Raines	1987	0.166
6	Dykstra	1993	0.146
7	Henderson	1993	0.146
8	Molitor	1991	0.146
9	Henderson	1984	0.139
10	Henderson	1992	0.138
11	Raines	1985	0.134
12	Dykstra	1994	0.132
13	Henderson	1991	0.126
14	Raines	1986	0.124
15	Henderson	1995	0.123
16	Raines	1981	0.116
17	Raines	1983	0.113
18	Butler	1994	0.112
19	Raines	1984	0.112
20	Butler	1987	0.110
21	Raines	1989	0.110
22	Boggs	1991	0.109
23	Boggs	1986	0.109
24	Henderson	1983	0.106
25	Henderson	1981	0.101
26	Boggs	1990	0.101
27	Henderson	1989	0.101
28	Suzuki	2001	0.101
29	Boggs	1988	0.100
30	Boggs	1989	0.100
31	Dykstra	1990	0.099
32	Henderson	1982	0.095
33	Butler	1988	0.094
34	Boggs	1992	0.085
35	Boggs	1995	0.083
36	Henderson	1988	0.081
37	Henderson	1996	0.080
38	Henderson	1980	0.080
39	Boggs	1984	0.079
40	Butler	1992	0.069
41	Butler	1990	0.065
42	Butler	1991	0.040

Notice again that Suzuki ranks in the bottom half. The average was .114 for these guys, so Suzuki was below average. A surprise, considering how fast he is and all the room in the outfield at Safeco.

Here is a ranking of adjusted OPS. Suzuki ranks 31.

Rank	Player	YEAR	ADJ OPS
1	Henderson	1990	190
2	Boggs	1988	165
3	Molitor	1987	159
4	Henderson	1985	159
5	Boggs	1986	156
6	Henderson	1992	156
7	Raines	1985	155
8	Henderson	1981	152
9	Henderson	1993	150
10	Raines	1987	148
11	Molitor	1991	148
12	Henderson	1984	147
13	Raines	1986	146
14	Henderson	1987	144
15	Dykstra	1993	144
16	Boggs	1989	141
17	Raines	1984	140
18	Henderson	1983	139
19	Boggs	1991	138
20	Dykstra	1990	137
21	Henderson	1980	136
22	Henderson	1991	136
23	Butler	1988	134
24	Raines	1981	134
25	Butler	1994	133
26	Henderson	1989	133
27	Raines	1989	132
28	Butler	1992	131
29	Henderson	1995	130
30	Raines	1983	129
31	Suzuki	2001	128
32	Henderson	1988	125
33	Boggs	1984	123
34	Butler	1990	122
35	Henderson	1982	121
36	Boggs	1995	120
37	Boggs	1990	120
38	Butler	1987	119
39	Dykstra	1994	116
40	Butler	1991	114
41	Henderson	1996	108
42	Boggs	1992	94

The table below shows all leadoff men from 1980-2002 who had a higher Offensive Winning Percentage (OWP) than Suzuki had in 2001 (.687). Offensive winning percentage tells us what winning percentage a team would have if all 9 batters were just like the one in question and the team gave up an average number of runs. It is a stat invented by Bill James. It takes stealing into account. The OWPs here come from the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia, so they are park adjusted. LO AB is the number of leadoff at-bats a guy gets. Leadoff % was the percent of their at-bats that were leadoff. I could not find what percentage of at-bats were leadoff for Henderson, Dykstra and Lofton in 1993. But it is likely that they batted leadoff most of the time. The number with a star is how many at-bats they had actually leading off an inning (from the 1994 Great American Baseball Stat Book). Leadoff at-bats from some players came from Retrosheet. Others came from various version of the STATS, INC Player Profiles books.

There were 33 cases of a higher OWP than .687 for guys who had at least 50% of their at-bats leading off. There were 15 seasons with an OWP 50 or more points above Suzuki’s 2001 OWP of .687. Five different players achieved this.

Rank	Player	YEAR	OWP	LO AB	Other AB	Leadoff %
1	Rickey Henderson	1990	0.859	485	4	99.18
2	Rickey Henderson	1985	0.807	546	1	99.82
3	Paul Molitor	1987	0.790	425	40	91.40
4	Tim Raines	1985	0.777	567	8	98.61
5	Tim Raines	1986	0.773	288	292	49.66
6	Wade Boggs	1986	0.770	214	366	36.90
7	Wade Boggs	1988	0.767	349	235	59.76
8	Rickey Henderson	1993	0.760	185*
9	Tim Raines	1984	0.757	362	260	58.20
10	Craig Biggio	1997	0.753	614	5	99.19
11	Tim Raines	1987	0.744	219	311	41.32
12	Rickey Henderson	1981	0.742	422	1	99.76
13	Rickey Henderson	1984	0.737	500	2	99.60
14	Rickey Henderson	1983	0.732	505	9	98.25
15	Brady Anderson	1996	0.731	402	177	69.43
16	Tim Raines	1981	0.731	313	0	100.00
17	Craig Biggio	1994	0.727	150	287	34.32
18	Lenny Dykstra	1990	0.726	588	2	99.66
19	Rickey Henderson	1980	0.725	591	0	100.00
20	Kal Daniels	1990	0.723	156	339	31.52
21	Rickey Henderson	1988	0.720	553	1	99.82
22	Chuck Knoblauch	1996	0.716	577	1	99.83
23	Kenny Lofton	1994	0.716	458	1	99.78
24	Lenny Dykstra	1993	0.714	260*
25	Willie Randolph	1980	0.714	513	0	100.00
26	Brett Butler	1994	0.712	354	63	84.89
27	Craig Biggio	1998	0.709	644	2	99.69
28	Darin Erstad	2000	0.704	675	1	99.85
29	Kenny Lofton	1993	0.704	227*
30	Paul Molitor	1991	0.700	652	13	98.05
31	Rickey Henderson	1989	0.699	539	2	99.63
32	Wade Boggs	1989	0.699	497	124	80.03
33	Rickey Henderson	1991	0.698	464	6	98.72
34	Tim Raines	1983	0.692	604	11	98.21
35	Tim Raines	1992	0.692	345	206	62.61
36	Wade Boggs	1991	0.691	353	266	57.03
37	Brett Butler	1988	0.690	566	2	99.65
38	Ichiro Suzuki	2001	0.687	685	7	98.99

In the table below are the cased of seasons in which leadoff men bested all three of the following by Suzuki in 2001: His BSR of 7, his adjusted OPS of 128 and his OBP relative to the league average of 1.14.

Player	YEAR	SB	CS	BSR	ADJ OPS	OBP	LG OBP	Rel OBP
Rickey Henderson	1983	108	19	16.54	139	0.414	0.326	1.27
Tim Raines	1983	90	14	14.48	129	0.393	0.332	1.18
Rickey Henderson	1985	80	10	13.80	159	0.419	0.324	1.29
Tim Raines	1984	75	10	12.70	140	0.393	0.328	1.20
Rickey Henderson	1980	100	26	12.12	136	0.42	0.328	1.28
Tim Raines	1985	70	9	11.98	155	0.405	0.328	1.23
Tim Raines	1986	70	9	11.98	146	0.413	0.332	1.24
Rickey Henderson	1989	77	14	11.62	133	0.411	0.326	1.26
Tim Raines	1981	71	11	11.44	134	0.391	0.328	1.19
Rickey Henderson	1990	65	10	10.50	190	0.439	0.327	1.34
Tim Raines	1987	50	5	9.10	148	0.429	0.339	1.27
Kenny Lofton	1994	60	12	8.64	143	0.412	0.331	1.24
Rickey Henderson	1993	53	8	8.62	150	0.432	0.337	1.28
Craig Biggio	1998	50	8	7.96	141	0.403	0.339	1.19
Rickey Henderson	1984	66	18	7.68	147	0.399	0.327	1.22
Ichiro Suzuki	2001	56	14	7.00	128	0.381	0.334	1.14

There were also three non-leadoff men since 1980 who topped Suzuki in all three of BSR, ADJ OPS and Rel OBP. Eric Davis (1987) had 8.72, 1.177 and 152. Tony Gwynn (1987) had 7.76, 1.32 and 160. Barry Larkin (1995) had 9.32, 1.159 and 133. Again, the league average OBP was for non-pitchers.

Finally, I also ran a simulation of the 2001 Mariners Lineup with Suzuki batting first and then again with John Olerud batting first instead of Suzuki (I used the Star Simulator).

The Mariners with Suzuki batting first scored 921 runs per 162 games (162,000 games played). Suzuki hit .350 with a .378 OBP and a .457 SLG, very close to his real numbers. He stole 61 bases and was caught 15 times. He scored 134 runs, 7 more than in real life, but only 3 more per 162 games. The Mariners in real life scored 927 runs, so the simulation worked well for them. The simulated Mariners hit .292 with a.362 OBP and a .458 SLG. The real numbers were .288-.360-.445. Their lineup was

Ichiro Suzuki

Mark McLemore

Bret Boone

Edgar Martinez

John Olerud

Mike Cameron

Dan Wilson

Carlos Guillen

David Bell

When Olerud replaced Suzuki as leadoff man (and batted 5^th as well), the Mariners scored 916 runs, just a little less than with Suzuki. Olerud batted .302 with a .401 OBP and a .470 SLG. 4 SB and 1 CS. The Mariners still batted .287 with a .460 SLG. But their OBP went up to .365. The 5^th place Olerud had similar numbers to the leadoff Olerud.

So why would Suzuki be a great leadoff man if he could only add 5 runs above what you could get with John Olerud?

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