Do pitchers win the expected number of games?
by Cyril Morong
Click here to see my sabermetric blog called Cybermetrics
(Bill Deane pointed out to me that Pete Palmer wrote an article that appeared in the Spring 1985 NATIONAL PASTIME called "Do Clutch Pitchers Exist" which shows that deviations from expected wins are probably due to chance. A link to that site is given at the end of this paper.)
For the most part, yes (I looked at data from 2001-4, 1920-2000, and 1991-2000). Given the number of runs they allow and their run support, most pitchers win about the number of games that we would expect, given the relationships between runs and wins.
I looked at all AL pitchers who had at least 50 decisions combined during the 2000-3 seasons. Then I ran a linear regression in which their winning percentage was a function of their runs allowed per nine innings and their run support per nine innings. There were 47 pitchers. The linear relationship is
PCT = .517 + .0899*RS - .0958*RA
Where RS is run support and RA is runs allowed. The r-squared is .816, meaning that 81.6% of the variation in pitcher’s winning pct is explained by the equation. If pitcher A wins 1 more game than pitcher B, then 81.6% of that difference is explained by the equation.
Then I used the equation to predict how many games each pitcher was expected to win and compared that to his actual total and found the difference. The table below shows the results.
|
Player |
Wins |
Losses |
DEC |
PCT |
RS per 9 |
RA per 9 |
EXP Pct |
Diff |
EXP W |
W Diff |
|
E. Milton |
41 |
26 |
67 |
0.612 |
5.22 |
4.99 |
0.508 |
0.104 |
34.03 |
6.97 |
|
R. Clemens |
63 |
26 |
89 |
0.708 |
5.76 |
4.23 |
0.630 |
0.078 |
56.03 |
6.97 |
|
M. Mulder |
64 |
34 |
98 |
0.653 |
5.26 |
4.08 |
0.599 |
0.054 |
58.69 |
5.31 |
|
J. Moyer |
67 |
31 |
98 |
0.684 |
5.57 |
4.00 |
0.635 |
0.049 |
62.22 |
4.78 |
|
R. Halladay |
50 |
24 |
74 |
0.676 |
5.75 |
4.41 |
0.611 |
0.065 |
45.23 |
4.77 |
|
C. Sabathia |
43 |
25 |
68 |
0.632 |
5.22 |
4.40 |
0.565 |
0.067 |
38.44 |
4.56 |
|
J. Halama |
33 |
26 |
59 |
0.559 |
5.58 |
5.38 |
0.504 |
0.055 |
29.74 |
3.26 |
|
D. Burba |
31 |
21 |
52 |
0.596 |
6.20 |
5.59 |
0.540 |
0.057 |
28.06 |
2.94 |
|
K. Rogers |
44 |
36 |
80 |
0.550 |
5.38 |
5.06 |
0.517 |
0.033 |
41.32 |
2.68 |
|
K. Escobar |
34 |
39 |
73 |
0.466 |
4.18 |
4.82 |
0.431 |
0.035 |
31.46 |
2.54 |
|
J. Washburn |
46 |
33 |
79 |
0.582 |
4.69 |
4.02 |
0.554 |
0.028 |
43.76 |
2.24 |
|
S. Schoeneweis |
29 |
31 |
60 |
0.483 |
5.18 |
5.44 |
0.461 |
0.022 |
27.66 |
1.34 |
|
B. Radke |
50 |
42 |
92 |
0.543 |
5.04 |
4.59 |
0.531 |
0.013 |
48.84 |
1.16 |
|
J. Baldwin |
28 |
22 |
50 |
0.560 |
5.82 |
5.25 |
0.537 |
0.023 |
26.86 |
1.14 |
|
T. Hudson |
69 |
31 |
100 |
0.690 |
5.70 |
3.65 |
0.680 |
0.010 |
68.02 |
0.98 |
|
P. Martinez |
59 |
17 |
76 |
0.776 |
5.38 |
2.39 |
0.771 |
0.005 |
58.63 |
0.37 |
|
D. Wells |
59 |
29 |
88 |
0.670 |
6.42 |
4.46 |
0.667 |
0.003 |
58.72 |
0.28 |
|
K. Lohse |
31 |
26 |
57 |
0.544 |
5.53 |
4.95 |
0.540 |
0.004 |
30.80 |
0.20 |
|
I. Valdez |
25 |
33 |
58 |
0.431 |
4.25 |
4.92 |
0.428 |
0.003 |
24.82 |
0.18 |
|
F. Garcia |
55 |
35 |
90 |
0.611 |
5.53 |
4.22 |
0.610 |
0.001 |
54.87 |
0.13 |
|
A. Pettitte |
68 |
32 |
100 |
0.680 |
6.71 |
4.59 |
0.681 |
-0.001 |
68.05 |
-0.05 |
|
S. Sparks |
29 |
30 |
59 |
0.492 |
5.23 |
5.13 |
0.496 |
-0.005 |
29.27 |
-0.27 |
|
C. Carpenter |
25 |
28 |
53 |
0.472 |
5.53 |
5.57 |
0.480 |
-0.008 |
25.43 |
-0.43 |
|
M. Mussina |
63 |
44 |
107 |
0.589 |
4.93 |
3.83 |
0.593 |
-0.004 |
63.44 |
-0.44 |
|
R. Reed |
25 |
25 |
50 |
0.500 |
5.21 |
4.94 |
0.512 |
-0.012 |
25.62 |
-0.62 |
|
R. Ortiz |
52 |
39 |
91 |
0.571 |
6.06 |
5.04 |
0.579 |
-0.008 |
52.71 |
-0.71 |
|
J. Mays |
36 |
44 |
80 |
0.450 |
4.75 |
5.01 |
0.465 |
-0.015 |
37.17 |
-1.17 |
|
A. Sele |
47 |
35 |
82 |
0.573 |
5.91 |
4.80 |
0.589 |
-0.015 |
48.26 |
-1.26 |
|
E. Loaiza |
51 |
43 |
94 |
0.543 |
5.47 |
4.72 |
0.556 |
-0.014 |
52.31 |
-1.31 |
|
J. Johnson |
25 |
36 |
61 |
0.410 |
4.20 |
4.83 |
0.432 |
-0.022 |
26.35 |
-1.35 |
|
K. Appier |
37 |
32 |
69 |
0.536 |
5.64 |
4.86 |
0.558 |
-0.022 |
38.52 |
-1.52 |
|
M. Buehrle |
53 |
35 |
88 |
0.602 |
5.57 |
4.15 |
0.620 |
-0.017 |
54.53 |
-1.53 |
|
J. Pineiro |
36 |
20 |
56 |
0.643 |
5.59 |
3.62 |
0.673 |
-0.030 |
37.71 |
-1.71 |
|
J. Suppan |
29 |
39 |
68 |
0.426 |
4.87 |
5.25 |
0.452 |
-0.026 |
30.74 |
-1.74 |
|
F. Castillo |
26 |
29 |
55 |
0.473 |
4.95 |
4.75 |
0.507 |
-0.034 |
27.89 |
-1.89 |
|
T. Sturtze |
27 |
38 |
65 |
0.415 |
4.94 |
5.39 |
0.445 |
-0.030 |
28.96 |
-1.96 |
|
R. Helling |
35 |
32 |
67 |
0.522 |
6.22 |
5.46 |
0.553 |
-0.031 |
37.07 |
-2.07 |
|
T. Wakefield |
37 |
34 |
71 |
0.521 |
5.28 |
4.60 |
0.551 |
-0.030 |
39.14 |
-2.14 |
|
C. Lidle |
37 |
37 |
74 |
0.500 |
5.44 |
4.96 |
0.531 |
-0.031 |
39.30 |
-2.30 |
|
S. Ponson |
35 |
38 |
73 |
0.479 |
4.95 |
4.70 |
0.512 |
-0.032 |
37.36 |
-2.36 |
|
C. Finley |
28 |
29 |
57 |
0.491 |
5.56 |
4.99 |
0.539 |
-0.048 |
30.73 |
-2.73 |
|
J. Weaver |
42 |
51 |
93 |
0.452 |
4.70 |
4.79 |
0.481 |
-0.030 |
44.76 |
-2.76 |
|
D. Davis |
25 |
27 |
52 |
0.481 |
5.92 |
5.33 |
0.539 |
-0.058 |
28.04 |
-3.04 |
|
J. Garland |
34 |
40 |
74 |
0.459 |
5.39 |
5.15 |
0.508 |
-0.049 |
37.61 |
-3.61 |
|
B. Colon |
54 |
37 |
91 |
0.593 |
5.49 |
3.94 |
0.634 |
-0.040 |
57.66 |
-3.66 |
|
B. Zito |
61 |
29 |
90 |
0.678 |
6.03 |
3.51 |
0.723 |
-0.045 |
65.09 |
-4.09 |
|
D. Lowe |
47 |
29 |
76 |
0.618 |
5.62 |
3.63 |
0.674 |
-0.056 |
51.22 |
-4.22 |
Wins and losses are each pitcher’s total for the two seasons. DEC is total decisions over the two seasons. RS per 9 is his run support over the two seasons. RA per 9 is how many runs he allowed per 9 innings over the two seasons. EXP Pct is each pitcher’s expected winning percentage based on the equation above. The “Diff” column is the difference between a pitcher’s actual pct and EXP Pct. EXP W is how many wins each pitcher should win according to the formula and the “W Diff” column shows the difference between his expected wins and his actual total. A positive difference means the pitcher won more games than expected.
No pitcher won even as many as eight more games than expected, which is less than two wins per season. 39 of the 47 pitchers were predicted to within 4 wins of their actual total (which is less than 1 win per season!). One of the two highest, Clemens and, probably benefited from the good Yankee bullpen, especially Mariano Rivera. So again, pitchers win about the number of games that we expect based on runs allowed and run support. Probably if I looked at more years worth of data, with randomness or luck playing less of a role, the relationship would get even closer.
The graph below shows the relationship between a pitcher’s expected winning percentage and his actual percentage.
So the higher the winning percentage that we expect, the higher we actually get.
Using the Pythagorean Approach of Bill James
Bill James came up with what he called the Pythagorean formula for predicting a team’s winning percentage. It is runs score squared divided by the sum of runs scored squared and runs allowed or
(Runs Scored)2/( Runs Scored2 + Runs Allowed2) = Pct
I also used this formula to predict each pitcher’s winning pct. The correlation between the actual and Pythagorean pct was .901 (a perfect correlation is 1.00). This is just a little lower than the correlation I got between the predicted percentage based on the regression analysis mentioned above and the actual (.903).
The graph below shows the actual percentage vs. Pythagorean percentage.
Data from 1920-2000
I used the Pythagorean formula to predict wins for the 70 pitchers who had at least 3000 IP between 1920-2000. For run support, I assumed that it equaled the weighted average of runs scored per game for the teams each pitcher played with (weighted by each season’s IP).
The correlation between actual winning percentage and the predicted percentage was .879. This is a little low compared to the results above. But still very high considering that I don’t have the actual run support. The correlation for the top 70 in IP is .928. So the more innings, the closer the relationship and the less that luck matters.
The table below describes the results.
|
Pitcher |
W |
L |
R/G |
RS |
PCT |
PYTH |
Pred W |
Diff |
Per 30G |
|
Mike
Torrez |
185 |
160 |
4.44 |
4.38 |
0.536 |
0.493 |
170.17 |
14.831 |
1.316 |
|
Lew
Burdette |
203 |
144 |
4.11 |
4.49 |
0.585 |
0.545 |
189.01 |
13.989 |
1.231 |
|
Joe
Niekro |
221 |
204 |
4.07 |
3.97 |
0.520 |
0.488 |
207.58 |
13.421 |
1.011 |
|
Bob Welch |
211 |
146 |
3.81 |
4.29 |
0.591 |
0.559 |
199.56 |
11.436 |
0.999 |
|
Burleigh
Grimes |
236 |
173 |
4.48 |
4.94 |
0.577 |
0.549 |
224.55 |
11.447 |
0.886 |
|
Rick Wise |
188 |
181 |
4.19 |
4.05 |
0.509 |
0.483 |
178.28 |
9.719 |
0.839 |
|
Earl
Whitehill |
218 |
185 |
5.10 |
5.26 |
0.541 |
0.516 |
207.75 |
10.247 |
0.776 |
|
Milt
Pappas |
209 |
164 |
3.76 |
4.04 |
0.560 |
0.536 |
199.98 |
9.018 |
0.764 |
|
Jack
Morris |
254 |
186 |
4.27 |
4.78 |
0.577 |
0.556 |
244.69 |
9.314 |
0.658 |
|
Orel
Hershiser |
204 |
150 |
3.93 |
4.40 |
0.576 |
0.556 |
196.92 |
7.076 |
0.610 |
|
Jerry
Reuss |
220 |
191 |
4.17 |
4.31 |
0.535 |
0.517 |
212.46 |
7.541 |
0.555 |
|
Bucky
Walters |
198 |
160 |
3.89 |
4.19 |
0.553 |
0.537 |
192.11 |
5.889 |
0.512 |
|
Freddie
Fitzsimmons |
217 |
146 |
4.20 |
4.95 |
0.598 |
0.581 |
211.06 |
5.935 |
0.497 |
|
Sad Sam
Jones |
197 |
181 |
4.74 |
4.81 |
0.521 |
0.507 |
191.67 |
5.333 |
0.441 |
|
Dennis
Martinez |
245 |
193 |
4.13 |
4.54 |
0.559 |
0.547 |
239.54 |
5.456 |
0.368 |
|
Tommy
John |
288 |
231 |
3.85 |
4.21 |
0.555 |
0.544 |
282.14 |
5.857 |
0.336 |
|
Ted Lyons |
260 |
230 |
4.45 |
4.64 |
0.531 |
0.521 |
255.37 |
4.630 |
0.300 |
|
Juan
Marichal |
243 |
142 |
3.41 |
4.40 |
0.631 |
0.625 |
240.48 |
2.518 |
0.194 |
|
Eppa
Rixey |
190 |
170 |
4.09 |
4.28 |
0.528 |
0.524 |
188.52 |
1.484 |
0.126 |
|
Early
Wynn |
300 |
244 |
4.02 |
4.42 |
0.551 |
0.548 |
297.97 |
2.031 |
0.120 |
|
Charlie
Hough |
216 |
216 |
4.28 |
4.25 |
0.500 |
0.497 |
214.75 |
1.248 |
0.089 |
|
Jim Kaat |
283 |
237 |
4.05 |
4.40 |
0.544 |
0.542 |
281.72 |
1.276 |
0.076 |
|
Mel
Harder |
223 |
186 |
4.50 |
4.92 |
0.545 |
0.544 |
222.48 |
0.525 |
0.041 |
|
Catfish
Hunter |
224 |
166 |
3.60 |
4.17 |
0.574 |
0.573 |
223.62 |
0.383 |
0.030 |
|
Mickey
Lolich |
217 |
191 |
3.80 |
4.05 |
0.532 |
0.532 |
217.04 |
-0.045 |
-0.003 |
|
Steve
Carlton |
329 |
244 |
3.67 |
4.27 |
0.574 |
0.574 |
329.12 |
-0.119 |
-0.006 |
|
Vida Blue |
209 |
161 |
3.65 |
4.17 |
0.565 |
0.566 |
209.32 |
-0.321 |
-0.026 |
|
Phil
Niekro |
318 |
274 |
3.89 |
4.20 |
0.537 |
0.538 |
318.58 |
-0.578 |
-0.029 |
|
Bob
Feller |
266 |
162 |
3.66 |
4.71 |
0.621 |
0.623 |
266.64 |
-0.640 |
-0.045 |
|
Doyle
Alexander |
194 |
174 |
4.12 |
4.37 |
0.527 |
0.530 |
194.97 |
-0.966 |
-0.077 |
|
Jim Perry |
215 |
174 |
3.85 |
4.31 |
0.553 |
0.556 |
216.10 |
-1.098 |
-0.090 |
|
Tom
Seaver |
311 |
205 |
3.15 |
3.91 |
0.603 |
0.606 |
312.72 |
-1.717 |
-0.097 |
|
Curt
Simmons |
193 |
183 |
4.17 |
4.33 |
0.513 |
0.519 |
195.21 |
-2.215 |
-0.179 |
|
Jerry
Koosman |
222 |
209 |
3.77 |
3.95 |
0.515 |
0.523 |
225.33 |
-3.331 |
-0.234 |
|
Claude
Osteen |
196 |
195 |
3.73 |
3.80 |
0.501 |
0.509 |
199.09 |
-3.091 |
-0.241 |
|
Jesse
Haines |
210 |
158 |
4.37 |
5.13 |
0.571 |
0.579 |
213.09 |
-3.087 |
-0.260 |
|
Whitey
Ford |
236 |
106 |
3.14 |
4.81 |
0.690 |
0.701 |
239.60 |
-3.604 |
-0.307 |
|
Danny
Darwin |
171 |
182 |
4.27 |
4.23 |
0.484 |
0.495 |
174.87 |
-3.873 |
-0.347 |
|
Robin
Roberts |
286 |
245 |
3.77 |
4.17 |
0.539 |
0.550 |
292.21 |
-6.213 |
-0.358 |
|
Luis
Tiant |
229 |
172 |
3.61 |
4.28 |
0.571 |
0.584 |
234.04 |
-5.044 |
-0.391 |
|
Rick
Reuschel |
214 |
191 |
3.79 |
4.12 |
0.528 |
0.541 |
219.18 |
-5.179 |
-0.394 |
|
Larry
Jackson |
194 |
183 |
3.88 |
4.10 |
0.515 |
0.528 |
198.87 |
-4.869 |
-0.403 |
|
Don
Sutton |
324 |
256 |
3.58 |
4.16 |
0.559 |
0.574 |
332.93 |
-8.935 |
-0.457 |
|
Lefty
Grove |
300 |
141 |
3.64 |
5.54 |
0.680 |
0.698 |
307.86 |
-7.859 |
-0.539 |
|
Jim
Palmer |
268 |
152 |
3.18 |
4.41 |
0.638 |
0.657 |
276.12 |
-8.119 |
-0.555 |
|
Tom
Zachary |
183 |
186 |
4.47 |
4.59 |
0.496 |
0.513 |
189.40 |
-6.398 |
-0.565 |
|
Frank
Tanana |
240 |
236 |
4.10 |
4.29 |
0.504 |
0.523 |
248.80 |
-8.801 |
-0.567 |
|
Paul
Derringer |
223 |
212 |
4.08 |
4.34 |
0.513 |
0.531 |
230.86 |
-7.863 |
-0.582 |
|
Nolan
Ryan |
324 |
292 |
3.64 |
3.99 |
0.526 |
0.545 |
335.98 |
-11.978 |
-0.600 |
|
Bobo
Newsom |
211 |
222 |
4.57 |
4.63 |
0.487 |
0.507 |
219.51 |
-8.512 |
-0.611 |
|
Dutch
Leonard |
191 |
181 |
4.00 |
4.28 |
0.513 |
0.534 |
198.66 |
-7.659 |
-0.642 |
|
Roger
Clemens |
260 |
142 |
3.40 |
4.83 |
0.647 |
0.669 |
268.81 |
-8.809 |
-0.649 |
|
Ferguson
Jenkins |
284 |
226 |
3.71 |
4.34 |
0.557 |
0.578 |
294.88 |
-10.879 |
-0.653 |
|
Jim
Bunning |
224 |
184 |
3.66 |
4.24 |
0.549 |
0.574 |
234.23 |
-10.233 |
-0.735 |
|
Greg
Maddux |
240 |
135 |
3.24 |
4.56 |
0.640 |
0.664 |
249.13 |
-9.132 |
-0.743 |
|
Bob
Gibson |
251 |
174 |
3.29 |
4.17 |
0.591 |
0.616 |
261.81 |
-10.810 |
-0.751 |
|
Gaylord
Perry |
314 |
265 |
3.58 |
4.12 |
0.542 |
0.570 |
329.79 |
-15.790 |
-0.797 |
|
Bob
Friend |
197 |
230 |
4.12 |
4.03 |
0.461 |
0.489 |
208.89 |
-11.888 |
-0.889 |
|
Waite
Hoyt |
233 |
176 |
4.28 |
5.24 |
0.570 |
0.600 |
245.36 |
-12.359 |
-0.912 |
|
Murry
Dickson |
172 |
181 |
4.22 |
4.38 |
0.487 |
0.519 |
183.09 |
-11.090 |
-0.981 |
|
Don
Drysdale |
209 |
166 |
3.39 |
4.08 |
0.557 |
0.591 |
221.76 |
-12.755 |
-1.003 |
|
Warren Spahn |
363 |
245 |
3.46 |
4.52 |
0.597 |
0.630 |
383.26 |
-20.257 |
-1.043 |
|
Charlie
Root |
201 |
160 |
4.13 |
5.00 |
0.557 |
0.594 |
214.59 |
-13.594 |
-1.148 |
|
Carl
Hubbell |
253 |
154 |
3.46 |
4.88 |
0.622 |
0.665 |
270.81 |
-17.812 |
-1.339 |
|
Larry
French |
197 |
171 |
4.11 |
4.83 |
0.535 |
0.580 |
213.37 |
-16.370 |
-1.402 |
|
Bert
Blyleven |
287 |
250 |
3.67 |
4.34 |
0.534 |
0.583 |
313.07 |
-26.071 |
-1.416 |
|
Billy
Pierce |
211 |
169 |
3.61 |
4.50 |
0.555 |
0.609 |
231.46 |
-20.463 |
-1.672 |
|
Red
Ruffing |
273 |
225 |
4.39 |
5.44 |
0.548 |
0.605 |
301.50 |
-28.503 |
-1.772 |
|
Dolf
Luque |
178 |
172 |
3.95 |
4.51 |
0.509 |
0.566 |
198.20 |
-20.200 |
-1.807 |
|
Dennis
Eckersley |
197 |
171 |
3.79 |
4.60 |
0.535 |
0.596 |
219.38 |
-22.379 |
-1.839 |
RS is run support or the runs per game scored by each pitcher’s teams. PYTH is their Pythagorean percentage. Pred W is how many games that the Pythagorean formula predicts they would win. Diff is the difference between the actual number of games a pitcher won and Pred W, with positive meaning that they won more than expected. Per 30G is how many more games they won or lost per 30 complete games (270 IP) or about a full season.
57 of the 70 were predicted to within 1 win per season. So again, pitchers are winning about the expected number of games. If I had the actual run support, the prediction would probably be more accurate.
It seems like many of the pitchers at the bottom of the list (who did not win as many games as expected) may have been the ace or number one starter on their staffs. They may have often faced the ace of other teams, so their run support may have been a little lower than what I have assumed since those other aces would hold teams to fewer runs than normal. The reverse may be true for the pitchers at the top of the list.
Data from 1991-2000
In the table below, I looked at pitchers from 1991-2000.
I took all of the pitchers who had at least 1000 IP from 1991-2000. Then I looked for their data in my STATS, INC Player Profiles books from 1996 and 2001, to cover the years 1991-2000. Those books gave 5 year totals. If a pitcher did not appear in both editions, he was left out. Also left out were pitchers who pitched so much in relief that they had no column for run support. That left 59 pitchers (for Gooden, I used the years 1990-94 and 1996-2000). Those books gave the run support data. The runs allowed data came from the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia.
The EXP Pct comes from the regression I ran on these pitchers which gave the following equation
Pct = .605 + .074*RS - .097*RA
The Diff Per Season column is how many more games they won or lost per
season, with a season being 225 IP. So I divided their IP in this period by 225
to get the number of seasons. All but five pitchers are within 1 win per
season.
|
Pitcher |
Wins |
Losses |
DEC |
PCT |
RS per 9 |
RA per 9 |
EXP Pct |
Exp W |
Diff Per Season |
|
Joey Hamilton |
64 |
53 |
117 |
0.547 |
4.37 |
4.46 |
0.495 |
57.89 |
1.29 |
|
Bobby Jones |
74 |
56 |
130 |
0.569 |
4.85 |
4.60 |
0.516 |
67.08 |
1.28 |
|
Kenny Rogers |
114 |
81 |
195 |
0.585 |
5.35 |
4.71 |
0.543 |
105.83 |
1.05 |
|
Ramon Martinez |
108 |
73 |
181 |
0.597 |
5.04 |
4.29 |
0.561 |
101.59 |
0.95 |
|
Randy Johnson |
155 |
71 |
226 |
0.686 |
5.06 |
3.40 |
0.648 |
146.54 |
0.91 |
|
David Wells |
136 |
89 |
225 |
0.604 |
5.55 |
4.56 |
0.573 |
128.89 |
0.83 |
|
Jaime Navarro |
101 |
111 |
212 |
0.476 |
4.93 |
5.39 |
0.446 |
94.50 |
0.81 |
|
Jamie Moyer |
97 |
62 |
159 |
0.610 |
5.62 |
4.54 |
0.579 |
92.11 |
0.78 |
|
Armando Reynoso |
67 |
56 |
123 |
0.545 |
5.48 |
5.07 |
0.517 |
63.65 |
0.73 |
|
Scott Karl |
54 |
56 |
110 |
0.491 |
5.10 |
5.34 |
0.464 |
50.99 |
0.68 |
|
John Burkett |
115 |
100 |
215 |
0.535 |
5.01 |
4.80 |
0.509 |
109.49 |
0.66 |
|
Tom Glavine |
175 |
84 |
259 |
0.676 |
5.22 |
3.46 |
0.655 |
169.57 |
0.54 |
|
Pedro Martinez |
125 |
56 |
181 |
0.691 |
4.80 |
2.97 |
0.671 |
121.49 |
0.50 |
|
Pete Schourek |
65 |
72 |
137 |
0.474 |
4.60 |
5.01 |
0.458 |
62.79 |
0.45 |
|
Orel Hershiser |
105 |
85 |
190 |
0.553 |
5.14 |
4.62 |
0.536 |
101.82 |
0.43 |
|
Kevin Brown |
144 |
94 |
238 |
0.605 |
4.52 |
3.62 |
0.588 |
139.84 |
0.41 |
|
Greg Maddux |
180 |
82 |
262 |
0.687 |
4.63 |
2.85 |
0.670 |
175.65 |
0.41 |
|
Denny Neagle |
105 |
69 |
174 |
0.603 |
5.33 |
4.20 |
0.591 |
102.91 |
0.31 |
|
Dave Burba |
95 |
70 |
165 |
0.576 |
5.51 |
4.61 |
0.565 |
93.18 |
0.30 |
|
Mark Clark |
74 |
71 |
145 |
0.510 |
5.10 |
4.96 |
0.501 |
72.57 |
0.26 |
|
Roger Clemens |
144 |
91 |
235 |
0.613 |
4.65 |
3.55 |
0.603 |
141.81 |
0.23 |
|
Todd Stottlemyre |
114 |
87 |
201 |
0.567 |
5.39 |
4.58 |
0.559 |
112.36 |
0.21 |
|
Aaron Sele |
92 |
63 |
155 |
0.594 |
6.28 |
4.96 |
0.587 |
91.03 |
0.17 |
|
Pat Hentgen |
120 |
88 |
208 |
0.577 |
5.55 |
4.58 |
0.571 |
118.69 |
0.17 |
|
Pedro Astacio |
95 |
82 |
177 |
0.537 |
5.30 |
4.78 |
0.532 |
94.19 |
0.12 |
|
Mike Mussina |
147 |
81 |
228 |
0.645 |
5.40 |
3.74 |
0.640 |
146.02 |
0.11 |
|
Kevin Tapani |
120 |
101 |
221 |
0.543 |
5.24 |
4.66 |
0.540 |
119.38 |
0.07 |
|
Scott Erickson |
127 |
112 |
239 |
0.531 |
5.37 |
4.86 |
0.530 |
126.68 |
0.04 |
|
Charles Nagy |
121 |
89 |
210 |
0.576 |
5.71 |
4.65 |
0.575 |
120.83 |
0.02 |
|
Cal Eldred |
74 |
67 |
141 |
0.525 |
5.21 |
4.80 |
0.524 |
73.89 |
0.02 |
|
Andy Pettitte |
100 |
55 |
155 |
0.645 |
6.27 |
4.35 |
0.647 |
100.25 |
-0.04 |
|
Mark Gardner |
87 |
76 |
163 |
0.534 |
5.61 |
4.97 |
0.537 |
87.52 |
-0.08 |
|
Al Leiter |
99 |
71 |
170 |
0.582 |
4.90 |
3.93 |
0.585 |
99.48 |
-0.08 |
|
Chuck Finley |
133 |
110 |
243 |
0.547 |
5.02 |
4.38 |
0.551 |
133.83 |
-0.09 |
|
Darryl Kile |
112 |
104 |
216 |
0.519 |
5.14 |
4.76 |
0.523 |
112.89 |
-0.11 |
|
Tim Belcher |
106 |
111 |
217 |
0.488 |
5.03 |
4.97 |
0.494 |
107.11 |
-0.14 |
|
Mike Hampton |
85 |
53 |
138 |
0.616 |
5.55 |
4.02 |
0.625 |
86.19 |
-0.21 |
|
Andy Ashby |
84 |
87 |
171 |
0.491 |
4.64 |
4.61 |
0.500 |
85.51 |
-0.22 |
|
Curt Schilling |
109 |
89 |
198 |
0.551 |
4.19 |
3.63 |
0.562 |
111.18 |
-0.27 |
|
Ken Hill |
105 |
86 |
191 |
0.550 |
5.16 |
4.38 |
0.561 |
107.10 |
-0.28 |
|
Kirk Rueter |
81 |
48 |
129 |
0.628 |
6.55 |
4.63 |
0.639 |
82.43 |
-0.30 |
|
Juan Guzman |
91 |
79 |
170 |
0.535 |
5.20 |
4.55 |
0.547 |
93.02 |
-0.31 |
|
Jon Lieber |
60 |
69 |
129 |
0.465 |
4.74 |
4.91 |
0.478 |
61.72 |
-0.34 |
|
David Cone |
131 |
89 |
220 |
0.595 |
5.11 |
3.82 |
0.612 |
134.53 |
-0.41 |
|
Sterling Hitchcock |
61 |
62 |
123 |
0.496 |
5.37 |
5.04 |
0.512 |
62.98 |
-0.42 |
|
Andy Benes |
127 |
114 |
241 |
0.527 |
4.80 |
4.23 |
0.549 |
132.19 |
-0.57 |
|
Alex Fernandez |
102 |
82 |
184 |
0.554 |
5.04 |
4.11 |
0.578 |
106.34 |
-0.58 |
|
Pete Harnisch |
94 |
78 |
172 |
0.547 |
4.95 |
4.10 |
0.572 |
98.38 |
-0.61 |
|
Shane Reynolds |
86 |
69 |
155 |
0.555 |
5.27 |
4.26 |
0.580 |
89.93 |
-0.65 |
|
Kevin Appier |
123 |
93 |
216 |
0.569 |
5.08 |
3.95 |
0.597 |
128.92 |
-0.71 |
|
Hideo Nomo |
69 |
61 |
130 |
0.531 |
5.01 |
4.27 |
0.560 |
72.85 |
-0.75 |
|
Frank Castillo |
66 |
79 |
145 |
0.455 |
4.81 |
4.88 |
0.486 |
70.50 |
-0.78 |
|
Jeff Fassero |
100 |
91 |
191 |
0.524 |
5.10 |
4.42 |
0.553 |
105.59 |
-0.79 |
|
Ismael Valdes |
63 |
61 |
124 |
0.508 |
4.38 |
3.94 |
0.546 |
67.66 |
-0.93 |
|
Brad Radke |
78 |
84 |
162 |
0.481 |
4.88 |
4.64 |
0.515 |
83.49 |
-0.94 |
|
Steve Trachsel |
68 |
84 |
152 |
0.447 |
4.69 |
4.80 |
0.485 |
73.72 |
-0.96 |
|
Omar Olivares |
70 |
76 |
146 |
0.479 |
5.36 |
4.93 |
0.522 |
76.24 |
-0.98 |
|
Pat Rapp |
65 |
79 |
144 |
0.451 |
5.34 |
5.13 |
0.501 |
72.18 |
-1.33 |
|
Dwight Gooden |
75 |
66 |
141 |
0.532 |
5.35 |
3.99 |
0.613 |
86.43 |
-2.01 |
Back to Cyril Morong's Sabermetric Research
Do Clutch Pitchers Exist? by PETE PALMER
Additional Source: ESPN website