Cyril Morong's Sabermetric Research


About Me

Sabermetrics? What is "Sabermetrics?" The statistical analysis of baseball. Sabermetrics comes from combining SABR (for the Society for American Baseball Research) with metric. It was coined by Bill James (also see link below). I have a Ph.D. in economics and analyzing baseball is my hobby. This sites has links to my articles, some of which are from "The Chicago Sports Review" and "Beyond the Boxscore." Click here to email me

Morong is actually a Polish name. There is a city in Poland called Morag (Morąg). There is a little hook on the a ( ą ) to give the end of the name the "ong" sound. What may have happened is that my grandfather told an immigration official his name and it may have been entered on some form or document as Morong. It is not Filipino, even though there is a town in the Philippines called Morong. (see

Three of the papers listed below by me were published in The Baseball Research Journal (published by SABR) and three others were published in "By The Numbers," the newsletter of SABR's Statistical Analysis Committee.

"Cybermetrics" (my sabermetric blog)
Click here to see my blog called "The Dangerous Economist"
Click here to see my featured contribution to the "Freakonomics" website.


Clutch Studies


Clutch Hitting Links
Clutch Hitting Leaders, 1987-2001
Does Team Clutch Matter?
The Problem With "Total Clutch" Hitting Statistics
Please, no more clutch hitting statistics!
Clutch Hitting Statistics Are Poor Predictors
General Clutch Data
Do Power Hitters Choke in the Clutch?
Clutch Hitting and Experience


Pitching Studies


How Hitting and Pitching Contribute to the Success of Division Winners, 1969-1989
Do pitchers win the expected number of games?
The Accuracy of Component ERA
Do Pitchers Give Up Their Expected Number of Runs Based on OPS?
League Leader's ERA relative to the Average of the Next Five
Best DIPS ERAs in history


All-Time Rankings


Win Shares Per Plate Appearance
Comparing Win Shares and Total Player Rating
Win Shares per Inning Pitched
Players Ranked by Their Average Rank in Total Win Shares and Win Shares per Plate Appearance
Ranking Hitters by Their Performance Above a .600 Offensive Winning Percentage
Total Player Rating per Plate Appearance


"Small-Ball" Studies


Productive Outs Are Not Productive
Productive Outs Don’t Help in Assessing a Hitter’s Value
Does Base Stealing Create Havoc?


Articles Printed in The Baseball Research Journal


RBIs, Opportunities and Power Hitting
Historical Trends in Home-Field Advantage
Has Greg Maddux employed the “Bagwell gambit” in his career?
Are "Balanced" Teams More Successful?(this is a link to the original article that was posted at Beyond the Boxscore-the BRJ article is similar)


Articles Printed in By the Numbers


The Impact of Lineup Balance on Scoring, 1920-89
Clutch Hitting and Experience
Do Hitter's Get Their Expected RBIs?




Stephen Jay Gould: His Mismeasure of Baseball
And the Winning Number is…OPS!
How much value does a walk to Barry Bonds have?
Was Ichiro Suzuki a great leadoff man during the 2001-3 seasons?
Did Ichiro Suzuki Deserve the MVP award in 2001?
Has Anyone Aged as Well As Barry Bonds?
How Many HRs Would Babe Ruth Have in Integrated Baseball?


My Articles Published in the Chicago Sports Review


From "Small Ball" to Powerhouse (why the 2006 White Sox scored so much in the first half)
Thome, Pierre Impact Bigger Than You Think
Remembering a Great Team: The 1963-67 White Sox
Short-Lived Success: A Sabermetricians Warning for the Sox
Is Crede the Best the Sox Can do at Third?
Should Clutch Hitting Stats Affect Personnel Decisions?
Ron Santo: Hall-worthy?
Guerrero is Deserving of MVP
The Sabermetrically Sound Excel in 04
Putting Bonds and Suzuki in Perspective
Are Boggs and Sandberg “Hall Worthy?”
"Saber-Truthed" By Dan Rafter (I was one of the people interviewed)
A Sabermetric Push for the Hall(For Rick Reuschel)
Statistical Look at Sox Success (In the first half of 2005)


My Articles Posted at the "Baseball Analysts" website


Ranking the Best Pitching Seasons Ever



My Articles Posted at the "Beyond the Boxscore" website


The Relative Win Value of Preventing Hits on Balls in Play
Click here for links to other BtB articles by me



My Articles Published in the Chicago Sports Weekly


Ruth Deserves an Asterisk ... a Small One (you have to scroll down to page 23 of this PDF)
Lining It Up For Stretch Run: What’s really the best order for the Cubs offense? (you have to scroll down to page 26 of this PDF)



Non-Baseball Work by Me


My economics page with links to my published academic research and op-ed articles


Other Baseball Sites and Research

GOODBY TO SOME OLD BASEBALL IDEAS by Branch Rickey (posted by Jim Furtado)
"The Base in Baseball" Esquire Vol. 4 No. 4 October 1935 pp. 67 & 140 by Travis Hoke (posted by Jim Furtado)
Jim Furtado's Baseball Stuff
Cliff Blau's "Original Baseball Research" site
"Skilton's Baseball Links" site
"Why the System of Batting Averages Should be Reformed" F. C. Lane, Baseball Magazine, January, 1917, No. 3, p. 52-60.
(please note: the link to this article on batting averages may not be working-email me and I can send it to you as a PDF attachmment)

" Why the System of Batting Averages Should Be Changed (a direct link to the PDF version)" site

" Baseball Magazine Articles" site
The Base on Balls by F. C. Lane
" More Baseball Magazine Articles" site
" Still More Baseball Magazine Articles" site
Do Clutch Pitchers Exist? by PETE PALMER
Pete Palmer’s All-Time All-Star Team, 1969

CROSLEY FIELD by Chuck Foertmeyer
Dan Agonistes Dan Fox shares his thoughts on Information Technology, .NET, baseball, history, and any other topics that are of interest.
Fourth Outfielder: An account of baseball in general and the Los Angeles Dodgers in particular
B Ball Deluxe
Futility Infielder (Jay Jaffe's site)

A good introduction to Sabermetrics can be found at

"A game of numbers" by Stanford math professor Keith Devlin
"The Sabermetric Manifesto" By David Grabiner
"The numbers revolution" By Alan Schwarz

The Baseball Analysts
Baseball Think Factory
Dan Agonistes
The Hardball Times
Beyond The Boxscore
Statistically Speaking
Sabermetric Research Blog
MLB Research Blog
John Dewan's Stat of the Week
Chicago Sports Weekly