I looked at all pitchers who had at least 150 IP from 1920-2000.

 

(1) DIPS ERA = Constant + 1.4*HR + .33*BB - .22*SO

 

(2) Constant = League ERA - (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP for the league and year in question. From

 

http://mb7.scout.com/fbaseballfrm8.showMessage?topicID=1060.topic

 

Strategy and Sabermetrics. Posted by PitchingWins.

 

The best 25 seasons by this method are

 

LahmanID

Year

DIPS

martipe02

1999

1.468835

goodedw01

1984

1.727534

tiantlu01

1968

1.908663

koufasa01

1963

1.90991

gibsobo01

1968

1.934264

mcdowsa01

1965

1.959322

johnsra05

1998

1.962719

chancde01

1968

2.01378

seaveto01

1971

2.036904

newhoha01

1946

2.047756

mcdowsa01

1968

2.052816

koufasa01

1965

2.069366

goodedw01

1985

2.081573

siebeso01

1965

2.119666

johnsra05

1995

2.129544

bluevi01

1971

2.129888

mcdowsa01

1969

2.138823

brownke01

1998

2.151403

gullibi01

1981

2.15264

scottmi03

1986

2.153301

martipe02

2000

2.157238

clemero02

1990

2.162582

carltst01

1972

2.183184

richaj01

1979

2.185583

guidrro01

1978

2.205397

 

If HRs are park adjusted (divided  HRs by the park factor provided to me by Ron Selter, then used that value in the above formula-For example, if the factor was 120, I divided by 110 since a pitcher only pitches half his games at home).

 

LahmanID

Year

DIPS-HR

martipe02

1999

1.515058

goodedw01

1984

1.735791

tiantlu01

1968

1.86449

newhoha01

1946

1.910105

mcdowsa01

1965

1.949191

johnsra05

1998

1.97182

gibsobo01

1968

1.993378

chancde01

1968

1.997993

mcdowsa01

1968

2.018349

seaveto01

1971

2.044905

koufasa01

1963

2.059276

bluevi01

1971

2.069777

sutclri01

1984

2.091717

siebeso01

1965

2.096862

johnsra05

1995

2.099166

goodedw01

1985

2.106241

clemero02

1990

2.140718

guidrro01

1978

2.155977

perryga01

1972

2.156752

brownke01

1998

2.176439

gullibi01

1981

2.18386

clemero02

1988

2.18846

mcdowsa01

1969

2.1888

maddugr01

1995

2.192309

chandsp01

1943

2.195147

 

I also caclulated a 3 year average for HR park effects and then recalculated the DIPS ERA. Here are the top 25

 

LahmanID

Year

DIPS-HR

martipe02

1999

1.518215

goodedw01

1984

1.722868

tiantlu01

1968

1.875058

mcdowsa01

1965

1.945923

newhoha01

1946

1.95534

gibsobo01

1968

1.964161

chancde01

1968

1.988885

mcdowsa01

1968

2.026595

johnsra05

1998

2.027895

seaveto01

1971

2.04222

mcdowsa01

1969

2.063134

koufasa01

1963

2.080971

siebeso01

1965

2.089506

goodedw01

1985

2.093655

johnsra05

1995

2.107891

carltst01

1972

2.112031

bluevi01

1971

2.113616

sutclri01

1984

2.142243

clemero02

1990

2.14536

brownke01

1998

2.16284

gullibi01

1981

2.170262

perryga01

1972

2.194914

chandsp01

1943

2.200026

guidrro01

1978

2.203409

maddugr01

1995

2.231753

 

 

The leaders in value based on the above formulas. IP are divided by 9 to get games. That gets multiplied by .400 and .500 to get the number of wins by a replacement pitcher and an average pitcher. Then the Pythagorean winning percentage is calculated for each pitcher, assuming they allow an average number of runs (4, which is close to the historical average-this is the right way to do it since all of these seasons are adjusted to the league and yearly conditions through the constant term) and and give up their DIPS ERA. That gets multiplied by the number of games to get Pythagorean wins. Then the wins by a replacement pitcher and an average pitcher gets subtracted from Pythagorean wins to get each pitcher’s value. Here are the top 25 over replacement:

 

LahmanID

Year

Value over Rep

fellebo01

1946

15.00873388

koufasa01

1965

14.5032789

koufasa01

1963

14.31783273

carltst01

1972

14.25658384

gibsobo01

1968

13.8955398

perryga01

1972

13.23628528

bluevi01

1971

13.14225534

chancde01

1968

12.90619545

koufasa01

1966

12.88992676

newhoha01

1946

12.75839066

blylebe01

1973

12.65320012

mclaide01

1968

12.62775984

seaveto01

1971

12.53772556

alexape01

1920

12.42509725

mcdowsa01

1965

12.33033375

richaj01

1979

12.0210835

mcdowsa01

1969

11.95921044

hubbeca01

1933

11.95626

tiantlu01

1968

11.89880982

goodedw01

1985

11.89361602

mcdowsa01

1968

11.70235167

jenkife01

1971

11.69424681

lolicmi01

1971

11.68271621

newhoha01

1945

11.6797677

woodwi01

1971

11.64025623

 

Now, over the average

 

LahmanID

Year

Value over AVG

fellebo01

1946

10.88281166

koufasa01

1963

10.86227718

koufasa01

1965

10.77364557

gibsobo01

1968

10.51035091

carltst01

1972

10.4084394

bluevi01

1971

9.675588671

chancde01

1968

9.661751001

newhoha01

1946

9.506535101

perryga01

1972

9.42887417

seaveto01

1971

9.35624778

koufasa01

1966

9.301037874

mcdowsa01

1965

9.297000415

blylebe01

1973

9.042089013

martipe02

1999

9.035356383

tiantlu01

1968

9.028443157

mclaide01

1968

8.894426505

goodedw01

1985

8.819538242

mcdowsa01

1969

8.792543772

richaj01

1979

8.77293906

mcdowsa01

1968

8.713462779

hubbeca01

1933

8.526626665

scottmi03

1986

8.42266615

alexape01

1920

8.388063914

goodedw01

1984

8.303338617

newhoha01

1945

8.198289927

 

Now the value over replacement and average with HRs adjusted for park factors:

 

Year

LahmanID

OVER REP

1946

fellebo01

14.4600062

1972

perryga01

14.268621

1972

carltst01

14.1372959

1968

mclaide01

13.7524277

1968

gibsobo01

13.5766106

1963

koufasa01

13.4935882

1971

bluevi01

13.478401

1946

newhoha01

13.4728085

1968

chancde01

12.9881941

1965

koufasa01

12.6409844

1973

blylebe01

12.6164597

1971

seaveto01

12.4968439

1933

hubbeca01

12.4108195

1965

mcdowsa01

12.3792608

1920

alexape01

12.3597412

1971

jenkife01

12.34649

1966

koufasa01

12.2159219

1972

lolicmi01

12.1969486

1968

tiantlu01

12.0988896

1971

lolicmi01

12.0643535

1968

mcdowsa01

11.8677282

1945

newhoha01

11.8364237

1985

goodedw01

11.7713331

1978

niekrph01

11.7496946

1969

mcdowsa01

11.7030334

 

 

Year

LahmanID

OVER AVG

1972

perryga01

10.4612099

1946

fellebo01

10.3340839

1972

carltst01

10.2891515

1946

newhoha01

10.2209529

1968

gibsobo01

10.1914217

1963

koufasa01

10.0380326

1968

mclaide01

10.0190943

1971

bluevi01

10.0117344

1968

chancde01

9.74374965

1965

mcdowsa01

9.34592745

1971

seaveto01

9.31536611

1968

tiantlu01

9.22852292

1973

blylebe01

9.00534856

1933

hubbeca01

8.98118617

1965

koufasa01

8.91135107

1968

mcdowsa01

8.87883932

1999

martipe02

8.87789337

1971

jenkife01

8.73537892

1985

goodedw01

8.69725527

1966

koufasa01

8.62703297

1972

lolicmi01

8.55991527

1969

mcdowsa01

8.53636676

1978

guidrro01

8.35853742

1945

newhoha01

8.35494591

1920

alexape01

8.3227079

 

 

Now the values if the three year average is used for HR park effects. First the value over replacement.

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER REP

carltst01

1972

14.6994452

fellebo01

1946

14.6786405

perryga01

1972

14.0333038

gibsobo01

1968

13.7345079

mclaide01

1968

13.4566688

koufasa01

1963

13.372906

newhoha01

1946

13.239241

bluevi01

1971

13.2333771

koufasa01

1965

13.1952705

chancde01

1968

13.0354422

jenkife01

1971

12.859714

blylebe01

1973

12.7930915

lolicmi01

1971

12.7122114

alexape01

1920

12.5271807

seaveto01

1971

12.5105657

mcdowsa01

1965

12.3950312

mcdowsa01

1969

12.345854

hubbeca01

1933

12.309843

tiantlu01

1968

12.0511408

koufasa01

1966

11.9740345

woodwi01

1971

11.9578451

newhoha01

1945

11.9259326

goodedw01

1985

11.8337475

mcdowsa01

1968

11.8282101

niekrph01

1978

11.5448284

 

 

Now, the value over average with the three year average for HR park effects.

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER AVG

carltst01

1972

10.8513008

fellebo01

1946

10.5527183

gibsobo01

1968

10.349319

perryga01

1972

10.2258927

newhoha01

1946

9.98738548

koufasa01

1963

9.91735048

chancde01

1968

9.79099775

bluevi01

1971

9.76671046

mclaide01

1968

9.72333548

koufasa01

1965

9.46563717

mcdowsa01

1965

9.36169785

seaveto01

1971

9.32908789

jenkife01

1971

9.24860287

blylebe01

1973

9.1819804

tiantlu01

1968

9.18077417

mcdowsa01

1969

9.17918735

hubbeca01

1933

8.88020965

martipe02

1999

8.86704781

mcdowsa01

1968

8.83932126

goodedw01

1985

8.75966969

lolicmi01

1971

8.53443364

alexape01

1920

8.4901474

newhoha01

1945

8.44445478

koufasa01

1966

8.38514563

goodedw01

1984

8.32066473

 

 

Then I ran a regression in which a pitcher’s ERA minus the league average ERA was the dependent variable and his HRs, BBs, and Ks (all minus the league average) were the independent variables. The regression equation was

 

(3) ERADIFF = -.10 + 1.398*HRDIFF - .168*KDIFF + .329*BBDIFF

 

The r-squared was .445 and the standard error was .521

 

The pitchers who were predicted by this equation to be the most under the league aveage were

 

LahmanID

DIFF

Year

martipe02

-3.09035

1999

martipe02

-2.52031

2000

johnsra05

-2.31383

1995

clemero02

-2.1885

1997

johnsra05

-2.04103

1998

brownke01

-2.02658

1998

maddugr01

-1.91459

1995

maddugr01

-1.90839

1994

johnsra05

-1.90135

2000

maddugr01

-1.84205

1997

eichhma01

-1.78088

1986

clemero02

-1.74567

1998

martipe02

-1.68795

1997

clemero02

-1.68607

1990

reuscri01

-1.67647

1987

johnsra05

-1.65905

1999

goodedw01

-1.63777

1984

brechha01

-1.62735

1948

brownke01

-1.61454

1996

maddugr01

-1.59239

1996

pettian01

-1.58477

1997

clemero02

-1.57739

1988

maddugr01

-1.55464

2000

clemero02

-1.53242

1987

brownke01

-1.52625

2000

 

 Then I adjusted HRs for park effects and the pitchers the most below the league average were

 

LahmanID

Year

Pred

martipe02

1999

-3.04423

martipe02

2000

-2.37313

johnsra05

1995

-2.34414

clemero02

1997

-2.14869

johnsra05

1998

-2.03194

brownke01

1998

-2.00159

maddugr01

1995

-1.98948

maddugr01

1994

-1.89936

johnsra05

2000

-1.83366

maddugr01

1997

-1.80824

eichhma01

1986

-1.72137

clemero02

1990

-1.70789

reuscri01

1987

-1.69617

clemero02

1998

-1.69092

maddugr01

1996

-1.639

martipe02

1997

-1.63474

goodedw01

1984

-1.62953

clemero02

1988

-1.62322

johnsra05

1999

-1.59363

brechha01

1948

-1.59143

grovele01

1930

-1.57737

pettian01

1997

-1.57538

smoltjo01

1996

-1.57294

brownke01

1996

-1.56922

johnsra05

1997

-1.55096

 

 

Now, if a guy pitches in a high ERA season, it makes it easier to go far below the league ERA. So I calculated the win value over the replacement pitcher and average pitcher here, with and without HRs being adjusted for park factors. A pitcher got a predicted ERA based on how much they differed from the leauge average. That got used in the Pythagorean formula, as described above. First the value without HR adjustment

 

LahmanID

OVER REP

Year

koufasa01

11.80012456

1965

fellebo01

11.79423457

1946

blylebe01

11.74082376

1973

carltst01

11.70095302

1972

koufasa01

11.43812655

1963

martipe02

11.42972416

1999

clemero02

11.33542675

1997

brownke01

11.02411794

1998

koufasa01

10.84460828

1966

bluevi01

10.63813565

1971

newhoha01

10.33995909

1946

richaj01

10.27881245

1979

mcdowsa01

10.23264092

1969

seaveto01

10.21293881

1971

goodedw01

10.17891245

1985

gibsobo01

10.14915607

1970

gibsobo01

10.07752187

1968

gibsobo01

9.955099659

1969

scottmi03

9.934808754

1986

guidrro01

9.873182031

1978

chancde01

9.846271891

1964

martipe02

9.833110674

2000

mcdowsa01

9.794380864

1965

clemero02

9.765470454

1988

woodwi01

9.706612082

1971

 

 

LahmanID

OVER AVG

Year

martipe02

9.05935749

1999

clemero02

8.40209342

1997

brownke01

8.168562382

1998

blylebe01

8.129712649

1973

koufasa01

8.070491228

1965

koufasa01

7.982570993

1963

carltst01

7.852808576

1972

fellebo01

7.668312344

1946

martipe02

7.421999563

2000

koufasa01

7.255719392

1966

bluevi01

7.171468988

1971

goodedw01

7.104834673

1985

newhoha01

7.088103531

1946

mcdowsa01

7.065974258

1969

seaveto01

7.031461034

1971

richaj01

7.030668002

1979

johnsra05

6.995060613

1995

gibsobo01

6.882489403

1970

scottmi03

6.875553199

1986

guidrro01

6.832437586

1978

clemero02

6.832137121

1988

mcdowsa01

6.761047531

1965

chancde01

6.753683002

1964

maddugr01

6.7175698

1997

gibsobo01

6.69233298

1968

 

Now the values with the HR adjustment

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER REP

blylebe01

1973

11.70256092

carltst01

1972

11.56445967

martipe02

1999

11.30116959

fellebo01

1946

11.18346355

newhoha01

1946

11.16704497

clemero02

1997

11.14902633

bluevi01

1971

11.02459727

brownke01

1998

10.91548829

perryga01

1972

10.56149662

koufasa01

1963

10.42702178

seaveto01

1971

10.1656077

guidrro01

1978

10.13025138

koufasa01

1966

10.1107353

jenkife01

1970

10.06568414

jenkife01

1971

10.06332212

goodedw01

1985

10.04264685

clemero02

1988

9.984642909

mcdowsa01

1969

9.951478116

niekrph01

1978

9.931108344

hubbeca01

1933

9.893415675

mcdowsa01

1965

9.851746563

gibsobo01

1970

9.828951928

koufasa01

1965

9.735919535

gibsobo01

1969

9.69779467

gibsobo01

1968

9.650209987

 

 

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER AVG

martipe02

1999

8.93080292

clemero02

1997

8.21569299

blylebe01

1973

8.09144981

brownke01

1998

8.05993274

newhoha01

1946

7.91518941

carltst01

1972

7.71631522

bluevi01

1971

7.55793061

johnsra05

1995

7.09318887

guidrro01

1978

7.08950694

fellebo01

1946

7.05754132

clemero02

1988

7.05130958

seaveto01

1971

6.98412993

koufasa01

1963

6.97146623

goodedw01

1985

6.96856908

martipe02

2000

6.95998961

mcdowsa01

1965

6.81841323

mcdowsa01

1969

6.78481145

perryga01

1972

6.75408551

maddugr01

1995

6.62203217

jenkife01

1970

6.58790636

maddugr01

1997

6.58267537

gibsobo01

1970

6.56228526

clemero02

1990

6.5573807

goodedw01

1984

6.5411674

koufasa01

1966

6.52184641

 

 

Then I ran a regression in which a pitcher’s ERA relative to the league average was the dependent variable and his HRs, BBs, and Ks (all relative to the league average) were the independent variables. The regression equation was

 

 

 

 

(4) RELERA = .656 + .236*REHR + .278*RELBB - .1956*RELSO

 

The r-squared was .421 and the standard error was .135

 

Then I plugged the data for each pitcher into the above formual. Here are the top 25 in RELERA

 

LahmanID

Pred

Year

martipe02

0.43480939

1999

vanceda01

0.47040295

1925

martipe02

0.525032427

2000

vanceda01

0.538979572

1924

grovele01

0.543423273

1930

johnsra05

0.567754344

1995

vanceda01

0.574332511

1928

brechha01

0.590017041

1948

maddugr01

0.594263364

1995

grovele01

0.599711662

1927

clemero02

0.603198483

1997

brownke01

0.603896307

1998

maddugr01

0.603973692

1994

maddugr01

0.608603497

1997

blantcy01

0.608823103

1935

hubbeca01

0.613965028

1933

grovele01

0.61499381

1926

allenjo02

0.615813551

1936

braxtga01

0.61618469

1927

adamsba01

0.616364775

1922

clemero02

0.62636164

1990

vanceda01

0.627736496

1930

johnsra05

0.62814774

1998

goodedw01

0.62821268

1984

luquedo01

0.628537826

1923

 

 

I adjusted each pitcher’s HRs for park effects and then plugged the data into the formula, the top 25 were

 

LahmanID

Pred-HR

Year

martipe02

0.438826

1999

vanceda01

0.469198

1925

martipe02

0.521009

2000

grovele01

0.547239

1930

maddugr01

0.57703

1995

vanceda01

0.583102

1928

braxtga01

0.585036

1927

clemero02

0.590669

1997

brechha01

0.595487

1948

johnsra05

0.596057

1995

vanceda01

0.59757

1924

vanceda01

0.601476

1930

blantcy01

0.602471

1935

grovele01

0.603906

1927

maddugr01

0.604937

1997

allenjo02

0.608589

1936

brownke01

0.609251

1998

grovele01

0.615871

1932

maddugr01

0.623192

1994

adamsba01

0.623551

1922

johnsra05

0.625693

1998

goodedw01

0.628732

1984

gullibi01

0.629633

1981

hubbeca01

0.638055

1933

johnsra05

0.638854

2000

 

 

The win value

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER REP

vanceda01

1924

12.84357908

vanceda01

1925

12.34723466

grovele01

1930

12.0285383

fellebo01

1946

11.86223512

luquedo01

1923

11.33494206

hubbeca01

1933

11.18887597

vanceda01

1928

10.96289163

fellebo01

1940

10.66800224

blylebe01

1973

10.66434942

martipe02

1999

10.45334108

newhoha01

1945

10.21789774

newhoha01

1946

10.11516429

carltst01

1972

10.04197235

koufasa01

1965

10.0364446

grovele01

1927

9.778643027

grovele01

1931

9.776033525

clemero02

1997

9.774433317

faberre01

1922

9.750227556

grovele01

1929

9.630831794

donohpe01

1925

9.592266757

grovele01

1932

9.563299404

rixeyep01

1923

9.554212152

koufasa01

1963

9.553396494

brownke01

1998

9.502339308

roberro01

1953

9.496274754

 

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER AVG

vanceda01

1924

9.4176569

vanceda01

1925

9.3990902

grovele01

1930

8.795205

martipe02

1999

8.0829744

vanceda01

1928

7.8480805

hubbeca01

1933

7.7592426

luquedo01

1923

7.7571643

fellebo01

1946

7.7363129

fellebo01

1940

7.1087467

blylebe01

1973

7.0532383

grovele01

1927

6.8638319

newhoha01

1946

6.8633087

martipe02

2000

6.8453499

clemero02

1997

6.8411

newhoha01

1945

6.73642

brownke01

1998

6.6467838

grovele01

1929

6.5715762

grovele01

1931

6.5686224

blantcy01

1935

6.4875422

grovele01

1926

6.4664817

guidrro01

1978

6.3515167

grovele01

1932

6.322555

koufasa01

1965

6.3068113

gomezle01

1937

6.3008851

brechha01

1948

6.2681973

 

 

The win value with HR adjustment

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER REP

grovele01

1930

12.43246432

vanceda01

1924

12.36012222

vanceda01

1925

12.22793184

hubbeca01

1933

12.00295878

fellebo01

1946

11.18232483

newhoha01

1946

11.03423

luquedo01

1923

10.84215077

blylebe01

1973

10.63395814

vanceda01

1928

10.62952527

grovele01

1932

10.53264399

newhoha01

1945

10.516926

martipe02

1999

10.35632119

grovele01

1929

10.16055517

grovele01

1926

9.96421725

carltst01

1972

9.935442997

grovele01

1931

9.929943497

grovele01

1927

9.865400025

fellebo01

1940

9.769763845

hubbeca01

1936

9.695261661

clemero02

1997

9.642992795

guidrro01

1978

9.610137563

vanceda01

1930

9.597871688

roberro01

1953

9.540441639

newhoha01

1944

9.490117679

mungova01

1936

9.43728698

 

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER AVG

vanceda01

1925

9.2797874

grovele01

1930

9.19913098

vanceda01

1924

8.9342

hubbeca01

1933

8.57332545

martipe02

1999

7.98595453

newhoha01

1946

7.78237444

vanceda01

1928

7.51471416

grovele01

1932

7.29189955

luquedo01

1923

7.26437299

grovele01

1929

7.10129961

grovele01

1926

7.09755058

fellebo01

1946

7.05640261

newhoha01

1945

7.03544823

blylebe01

1973

7.02284703

grovele01

1927

6.95058891

vanceda01

1930

6.72379391

grovele01

1931

6.72253239

clemero02

1997

6.70965946

guidrro01

1978

6.56939312

brownke01

1998

6.56873348

martipe02

2000

6.52350629

blantcy01

1935

6.3990246

gomezle01

1937

6.33473756

hubbeca01

1936

6.31748388

grovele01

1928

6.30343554

 

 

Now the top 25 in career wins above replacement level using Equation (1) with park adjustments for HRs.

 

LahmanID

OVER REP

perryga01 Total

134.8210117

ryanno01 Total

130.1410162

carltst01 Total

126.0350086

seaveto01 Total

119.9717665

blylebe01 Total

119.518118

suttodo01 Total

115.0825686

jenkife01 Total

105.1758182

gibsobo01 Total

104.5010582

niekrph01 Total

101.9524381

lolicmi01 Total

95.84384907

johnto01 Total

95.23393048

maddugr01 Total

94.41481446

bunniji01 Total

90.97957578

kaatji01 Total

90.12162779

clemero02 Total

89.29489174

drysddo01 Total

85.63130028

spahnwa01 Total

85.3964287

maricju01 Total

85.02873448

koosmje01 Total

82.3383086

derripa01 Total

81.22763757

hubbeca01 Total

79.75220371

reuscri01 Total

77.67393236

grovele01 Total

76.55978487

roberro01 Total

76.52688924

palmeji01 Total

72.75113681

 

Now the top 25 over average

 

LahmanID

OVER AVG

perryga01 Total

80.68025619

ryanno01 Total

76.6669384

carltst01 Total

73.69797523

seaveto01 Total

71.0939887

blylebe01 Total

69.81441797

gibsobo01 Total

64.35661376

suttodo01 Total

58.31961304

lolicmi01 Total

57.95493796

maddugr01 Total

57.89259224

jenkife01 Total

56.50917371

clemero02 Total

52.68376952

bunniji01 Total

52.20550911

drysddo01 Total

49.29426694

johnto01 Total

48.57098604

kaatji01 Total

47.73275001

maricju01 Total

47.66577893

mcdowsa01 Total

47.34219959

niekrph01 Total

46.54873806

reuscri01 Total

44.31466569

koufasa01 Total

43.83505335

koosmje01 Total

42.37904193

hubbeca01 Total

41.97071482

newhoha01 Total

41.71843602

goodedw01 Total

41.03012313

derripa01 Total

40.91651535

 

Now the top 25 in career wins above replacement level using Equation (4)

 

LahmanID

OVER REP

grovele01 Total

115.3920135

perryga01 Total

105.7559539

blylebe01 Total

101.009891

suttodo01 Total

93.63306417

hubbeca01 Total

90.19520829

carltst01 Total

89.70796604

seaveto01 Total

89.70686021

maddugr01 Total

89.56131161

clemero02 Total

89.37634343

vanceda01 Total

88.56012151

ryanno01 Total

86.52214465

spahnwa01 Total

85.47992869

johnto01 Total

82.28673287

jenkife01 Total

82.12462409

roberro01 Total

80.09242213

niekrph01 Total

79.31001138

derripa01 Total

76.73392609

ruffire01 Total

73.66044866

gibsobo01 Total

72.81534641

bunniji01 Total

71.8324794

kaatji01 Total

70.5664663

fellebo01 Total

70.40256863

newhoha01 Total

69.2389534

drysddo01 Total

66.32378614

maricju01 Total

65.85704968

 

Now over average

 

LahmanID

OVER AVG

grovele01 Total

74.31053574

vanceda01 Total

58.48605485

maddugr01 Total

53.03908939

clemero02 Total

52.7652212

hubbeca01 Total

52.4137194

perryga01 Total

51.61519834

blylebe01 Total

51.30619103

seaveto01 Total

40.82908244

newhoha01 Total

39.37598674

carltst01 Total

37.3709327

suttodo01 Total

36.87010861

derripa01 Total

36.42280387

brownke01 Total

35.90936237

johnto01 Total

35.62378843

roberro01 Total

34.28872213

fellebo01 Total

34.14330196

jenkife01 Total

33.45797965

bunniji01 Total

33.05841273

ryanno01 Total

33.04806687

gibsobo01 Total

32.67090196

spahnwa01 Total

30.98361758

reuscri01 Total

30.6702001

drysddo01 Total

29.98675281

johnsra05 Total

29.77289376

goodedw01 Total

28.70034528

 

 

 

Now the top 100 ERAs with 1000+ IP using Equation (1) with HR adjustments

 

LahmanID

IP

ERA

mcdowsa01 Total

2115

2.6264

koufasa01 Total

2119.67

2.73179

chancde01 Total

1949

2.78879

martipe02 Total

1316.67

2.80993

goodedw01 Total

2180.67

2.8483

malonji01 Total

1528.33

2.86968

gibsobo01 Total

3613

2.88449

maddugr01 Total

3287

2.89544

lolicmi01 Total

3410

2.92647

hughste01 Total

1217.67

2.93962

perryga01 Total

4872.67

2.95095

matlajo01 Total

1915.67

2.95332

seaveto01 Total

4399

2.98495

johnsra05 Total

2166.33

2.99725

laniema01 Total

1093

2.99897

ryanno01 Total

4812.67

3.00808

clemero02 Total

3295

3.01186

rijojo01 Total

1397.67

3.01238

carltst01 Total

4710.33

3.01387

vealebo01 Total

1690

3.02307

coopemo01 Total

1632

3.02739

blylebe01 Total

4473.33

3.0308

drysddo01 Total

3270.33

3.0367

newhoha01 Total

2687.67

3.04105

bunniji01 Total

3489.67

3.04472

siebeso01 Total

1794.67

3.04803

reuscri01 Total

3002.33

3.05467

deandi01 Total

1728.33

3.08485

peterfr01 Total

2002.33

3.08932

richaj01 Total

1328.67

3.09218

vanceda01 Total

2706.67

3.10056

otooji01 Total

1155

3.10755

maricju01 Total

3362.67

3.10822

schilcu01 Total

1348.33

3.1083

messean01 Total

1962

3.11051

singebi01 Total

1815.67

3.12043

fernasi01 Total

1331

3.12176

shortch02 Total

1829

3.12297

peterga01 Total

1974.67

3.12351

pascuca02 Total

2479.33

3.14208

smoltjo01 Total

2215.67

3.14439

reedro01 Total

1240

3.14896

garcimi01 Total

2056

3.14939

montejo01 Total

1077.33

3.15744

horlejo01 Total

1530.33

3.16142

passecl01 Total

2470.67

3.16686

meltocl01 Total

1245.67

3.1796

jenkife01 Total

4380

3.18696

downial01 Total

1691.33

3.18839

nolanga01 Total

1498

3.19436

johnske02 Total

1244.67

3.19904

sotoma01 Total

1390.67

3.19939

kaatji01 Total

3815

3.20258

hubbeca01 Total

3400.33

3.20754

handsbi01 Total

1564

3.20919

rogerst01 Total

2665.67

3.21077

culpra01 Total

1497.33

3.2151

koosmje01 Total

3596.33

3.23839

woodwi01 Total

2008.67

3.24031

wyattwh01 Total

1131.33

3.24919

mclaide01 Total

1597.33

3.24937

troutdi01 Total

2404.67

3.24955

johnto01 Total

4199.67

3.25141

brechha01 Total

1412.67

3.25282

fordwh01 Total

2812

3.25364

truckvi01 Total

2241

3.26011

laryfr01 Total

1799.67

3.26058

derripa01 Total

3628

3.26183

odelbi01 Total

1126.33

3.26415

newcodo01 Total

1706

3.26476

holtzke01 Total

2264

3.27212

chrisla01 Total

1010.67

3.27585

chandsp01 Total

1218.67

3.27874

stottme01 Total

2452.33

3.27898

ellisdo01 Total

1558

3.27929

merriji01 Total

1111

3.2811

brownke01 Total

2632.33

3.28459

suttodo01 Total

5108.67

3.2851

haefnmi01 Total

1052.33

3.28668

tiantlu01 Total

2971

3.29692

herbera01 Total

1072.67

3.29995

maglisa01 Total

1129.33

3.30058

wilsodo01 Total

1742.33

3.30254

dobsopa01 Total

1507.67

3.30482

cuellmi01 Total

2565.67

3.31044

alexape01 Total

2083

3.3112

hootobu01 Total

2122.67

3.31518

jacksla01 Total

3169.33

3.31652

leonadu02 Total

2688.67

3.32144

mcnalda01 Total

2399

3.32276

jarvipa01 Total

1083.67

3.32373

guidrro01 Total

2059.67

3.32779

mungova01 Total

1811

3.34312

bonhabi01 Total

1210.33

3.3449

saberbr01 Total

1877.67

3.34563

kralija01 Total

1023.67

3.34609

reussje01 Total

3012.67

3.35216

brilene01 Total

1405

3.35406

nuxhajo01 Total

1346.33

3.35439

candejo01 Total

1794.67

3.35628

 

Now the top 50 with 2000 IP

 

LahmanID

IP

DIPS ER

ERA

mcdowsa01 Total

2115

617.205

2.6264

koufasa01 Total

2119.67

643.386

2.73179

goodedw01 Total

2180.67

690.133

2.8483

gibsobo01 Total

3613

1157.96

2.88449

maddugr01 Total

3287

1057.48

2.89544

lolicmi01 Total

3410

1108.81

2.92647

perryga01 Total

4872.67

1597.67

2.95095

seaveto01 Total

4399

1458.98

2.98495

johnsra05 Total

2166.33

721.45

2.99725

ryanno01 Total

4812.67

1608.54

3.00808

clemero02 Total

3295

1102.68

3.01186

carltst01 Total

4710.33

1577.37

3.01387

blylebe01 Total

4473.33

1506.42

3.0308

drysddo01 Total

3270.33

1103.45

3.0367

newhoha01 Total

2687.67

908.148

3.04105

bunniji01 Total

3489.67

1180.56

3.04472

reuscri01 Total

3002.33

1019.01

3.05467

peterfr01 Total

2002.33

687.317

3.08932

vanceda01 Total

2706.67

932.464

3.10056

maricju01 Total

3362.67

1161.32

3.10822

pascuca02 Total

2479.33

865.586

3.14208

smoltjo01 Total

2215.67

774.103

3.14439

garcimi01 Total

2056

719.462

3.14939

passecl01 Total

2470.67

869.361

3.16686

jenkife01 Total

4380

1550.98

3.18696

kaatji01 Total

3815

1357.54

3.20258

hubbeca01 Total

3400.33

1211.86

3.20754

rogerst01 Total

2665.67

950.983

3.21077

koosmje01 Total

3596.33

1294.04

3.23839

woodwi01 Total

2008.67

723.19

3.24031

troutdi01 Total

2404.67

868.233

3.24955

johnto01 Total

4199.67

1517.2

3.25141

fordwh01 Total

2812

1016.58

3.25364

truckvi01 Total

2241

811.769

3.26011

derripa01 Total

3628

1314.88

3.26183

holtzke01 Total

2264

823.119

3.27212

stottme01 Total

2452.33

893.461

3.27898

brownke01 Total

2632.33

960.683

3.28459

suttodo01 Total

5108.67

1864.72

3.2851

tiantlu01 Total

2971

1088.35

3.29692

cuellmi01 Total

2565.67

943.72

3.31044

alexape01 Total

2083

766.36

3.3112

hootobu01 Total

2122.67

781.893

3.31518

jacksla01 Total

3169.33

1167.91

3.31652

leonadu02 Total

2688.67

992.249

3.32144

mcnalda01 Total

2399

885.699

3.32276

guidrro01 Total

2059.67

761.57

3.32779

reussje01 Total

3012.67

1122.1

3.35216

bluevi01 Total

2921.67

1089.57

3.35635

lonboji01 Total

2052.33

765.817

3.3583

 

 

Using Equation (4), here are the top 100 with 1000+ IP in ERA relative to the league average, with the HR adjustment.

 

LahmanID

IP

REL ERA-HR

vanceda01 Total

2706.67

0.665345242

grovele01 Total

3697.33

0.689323262

martipe02 Total

1316.67

0.703892751

maddugr01 Total

3287

0.745535155

clemero02 Total

3295

0.746103136

hubbeca01 Total

3400.33

0.754682436

deandi01 Total

1728.33

0.759801975

clarkwa02 Total

1387

0.763251649

newhoha01 Total

2687.67

0.767893925

allenjo02 Total

1334.67

0.771761084

laniema01 Total

1093

0.780412042

brownke01 Total

2632.33

0.7827871

johnsra05 Total

2166.33

0.786670052

goodedw01 Total

2180.67

0.788805462

garcimi01 Total

2056

0.790648133

schilcu01 Total

1348.33

0.791775942

saberbr01 Total

1877.67

0.791805304

mussimi01 Total

1922

0.793317794

reynosh01 Total

1074.33

0.801089297

gomezle01 Total

2331

0.806140307

newcodo01 Total

1706

0.810707324

meltocl01 Total

1245.67

0.811355022

alexape01 Total

2083

0.811677942

blylebe01 Total

4473.33

0.814142876

matlajo01 Total

1915.67

0.816707899

pipgrge01 Total

1132.33

0.817275243

koufasa01 Total

2119.67

0.819092285

guidrro01 Total

2059.67

0.820049692

rijojo01 Total

1397.67

0.820793282

chandsp01 Total

1218.67

0.822003531

passecl01 Total

2470.67

0.824515775

perryga01 Total

4872.67

0.825821189

troutdi01 Total

2404.67

0.825865091

brechha01 Total

1412.67

0.827089015

coopemo01 Total

1632

0.828932921

fellebo01 Total

3263.33

0.829934298

appieke01 Total

1839

0.831145417

reuscri01 Total

3002.33

0.832483115

higuete01 Total

1119.67

0.833840151

derripa01 Total

3628

0.834814662

smoltjo01 Total

2215.67

0.835193771

hoytwa01 Total

2746.33

0.835407172

jansela01 Total

1690.33

0.835759886

tewksbo01 Total

1168.67

0.837486213

laryfr01 Total

1799.67

0.837879027

mungova01 Total

1811

0.841105986

quinnja01 Total

1718.33

0.841754617

wellsda01 Total

1692.33

0.844209435

truckvi01 Total

2241

0.844978352

bunniji01 Total

3489.67

0.845047258

wyattwh01 Total

1131.33

0.84509761

pennohe01 Total

2658.67

0.84548198

maglisa01 Total

1129.33

0.845921945

drysddo01 Total

3270.33

0.848007215

maysca01 Total

1395.67

0.848448199

rowesc01 Total

1514.67

0.848693287

haddiha01 Total

1834.67

0.848736033

chancde01 Total

1949

0.848790999

seaveto01 Total

4399

0.849146705

johnssy01 Total

1071.67

0.849480648

parneme01 Total

1432.33

0.851352089

otooji01 Total

1155

0.851430313

hansoer01 Total

1213.67

0.852344705

gibsobo01 Total

3613

0.852408211

shockur01 Total

2146.67

0.853276501

roepr01 Total

1634.67

0.853339308

hughste01 Total

1217.67

0.854855458

blantcy01 Total

1069

0.855138706

leeth01 Total

1622.33

0.85515606

covelst01 Total

1861.33

0.856090043

rixeyep01 Total

2842.33

0.857128427

hutchfr01 Total

1256.33

0.857831989

leonadu02 Total

2688.67

0.858204583

johnto01 Total

4199.67

0.858590845

pascuca02 Total

2479.33

0.85919959

bridgto01 Total

2608.67

0.859982203

fordwh01 Total

2812

0.860265156

maricju01 Total

3362.67

0.860582053

donohpe01 Total

1843.67

0.8616605

roberro01 Total

4122.33

0.861984568

galehde01 Total

1140.33

0.862073094

kralija01 Total

1023.67

0.863125731

herbera01 Total

1072.67

0.863183516

bosioch01 Total

1357

0.864349666

uhlege01 Total

2657

0.865901364

peterfr01 Total

2002.33

0.86845914

malonpa02 Total

1632

0.868958873

pettian01 Total

1249

0.869759131

hardeme01 Total

2907.33

0.869826258

carltst01 Total

4710.33

0.869853175

keyji01 Total

2288.67

0.869902504

coneda01 Total

2268.67

0.870193876

sullifr01 Total

1639

0.870892801

smilejo01 Total

1411.67

0.872149374

lolicmi01 Total

3410

0.87267724

rogerst01 Total

2665.67

0.87294424

rushbo01 Total

1999.33

0.873012793

rootch01 Total

2727.33

0.874278906

wittmi01 Total

1816

0.874450669

jenkife01 Total

4380

0.874532848

 

Now the top 50 with 2000+ IP

 

LahmanID

IP

REL ERA-HR

vanceda01 Total

2706.67

0.665345242

grovele01 Total

3697.33

0.689323262

maddugr01 Total

3287

0.745535155

clemero02 Total

3295

0.746103136

hubbeca01 Total

3400.33

0.754682436

newhoha01 Total

2687.67

0.767893925

brownke01 Total

2632.33

0.7827871

johnsra05 Total

2166.33

0.786670052

goodedw01 Total

2180.67

0.788805462

garcimi01 Total

2056

0.790648133

gomezle01 Total

2331

0.806140307

alexape01 Total

2083

0.811677942

blylebe01 Total

4473.33

0.814142876

koufasa01 Total

2119.67

0.819092285

guidrro01 Total

2059.67

0.820049692

passecl01 Total

2470.67

0.824515775

perryga01 Total

4872.67

0.825821189

troutdi01 Total

2404.67

0.825865091

fellebo01 Total

3263.33

0.829934298

reuscri01 Total

3002.33

0.832483115

derripa01 Total

3628

0.834814662

smoltjo01 Total

2215.67

0.835193771

hoytwa01 Total

2746.33

0.835407172

truckvi01 Total

2241

0.844978352

bunniji01 Total

3489.67

0.845047258

pennohe01 Total

2658.67

0.84548198

drysddo01 Total

3270.33

0.848007215

seaveto01 Total

4399

0.849146705

gibsobo01 Total

3613

0.852408211

shockur01 Total

2146.67

0.853276501

rixeyep01 Total

2842.33

0.857128427

leonadu02 Total

2688.67

0.858204583

johnto01 Total

4199.67

0.858590845

pascuca02 Total

2479.33

0.85919959

bridgto01 Total

2608.67

0.859982203

fordwh01 Total

2812

0.860265156

maricju01 Total

3362.67

0.860582053

roberro01 Total

4122.33

0.861984568

uhlege01 Total

2657

0.865901364

peterfr01 Total

2002.33

0.86845914

hardeme01 Total

2907.33

0.869826258

carltst01 Total

4710.33

0.869853175

keyji01 Total

2288.67

0.869902504

coneda01 Total

2268.67

0.870193876

lolicmi01 Total

3410

0.87267724

rogerst01 Total

2665.67

0.87294424

rootch01 Total

2727.33

0.874278906

jenkife01 Total

4380

0.874532848

eckerde01 Total

2431.33

0.874964986

mcdowsa01 Total

2115

0.87531437

 

 

Then I ran a regression in which the dependent variable was how many standard deviations below the mean a pitcher’s ERA was (I used the simple average of the ERA in each league/year from the pitchers with 150+IP and the unweighted standard deviation of those pitchers). The independent variables were HRs, BBs and Ks, all based on how many standard deviations from the mean they were. The regression equation was

 

ERA = .44*HR + .4*BB - .3*K

 

The intercept was less than .0001. The r-squared was .422 and the standard erro was .75.

 

The top 25 were

 

LahmanID

Year

Pred

martipe02

1999

-3.35437

martipe02

2000

-2.65545

maddugr01

1995

-2.16896

johnsra05

1995

-2.16674

clemero02

1997

-2.0648

vanceda01

1925

-2.05565

brechha01

1948

-2.0336

maddugr01

1997

-1.94831

grovele01

1930

-1.9401

reuscri01

1987

-1.93368

brownke01

1998

-1.88591

clemero02

1998

-1.84268

johnsra05

1998

-1.80771

eichhma01

1986

-1.78689

clemero02

1990

-1.77346

clemero02

1988

-1.74888

hubbeca01

1933

-1.7473

goodedw01

1984

-1.74292

maddugr01

1994

-1.73444

guidrro01

1978

-1.71607

vanceda01

1924

-1.70731

blackew01

1947

-1.70027

fellebo01

1940

-1.68727

blylebe01

1973

-1.66407

johnsra05

1999

-1.66122

 

Then I adjusted HRs for park effects and the top 25 were

 

LahmanID

Pred-HR

Year

martipe02

-3.30068

1999

martipe02

-2.47364

2000

maddugr01

-2.25652

1995

johnsra05

-2.20692

1995

grovele01

-2.03997

1930

vanceda01

-2.0269

1925

clemero02

-2.02065

1997

brechha01

-1.98894

1948

reuscri01

-1.95306

1987

hubbeca01

-1.93537

1933

maddugr01

-1.90693

1997

brownke01

-1.86134

1998

clemero02

-1.82948

1998

clemero02

-1.80514

1988

eichhma01

-1.804

1986

clemero02

-1.79949

1990

johnsra05

-1.79878

1998

guidrro01

-1.78004

1978

vanceda01

-1.76689

1930

goodedw01

-1.73141

1984

maddugr01

-1.72226

1994

blackew01

-1.67828

1947

maddugr01

-1.67622

1996

smoltjo01

-1.66071

1996

grovele01

-1.66

1932

 

 

Now using a 3 year average for the HR park adjustment

 

LahmanID

IP

Pred-HR3 YR

Year

martipe02

213.333

-3.297010678

1999

martipe02

217

-2.512702199

2000

maddugr01

209.667

-2.210504246

1995

johnsra05

214.333

-2.195381821

1995

clemero02

264

-2.053278414

1997

vanceda01

265.333

-2.045449511

1925

grovele01

291

-2.023691593

1930

brechha01

233.333

-1.985608034

1948

maddugr01

232.667

-1.950290751

1997

reuscri01

177

-1.932435075

1987

hubbeca01

308.667

-1.893580383

1933

brownke01

257

-1.874683653

1998

clemero02

234.667

-1.803828792

1998

clemero02

228.333

-1.793966522

1990

eichhma01

157

-1.793838578

1986

blackew01

273

-1.752915338

1947

goodedw01

218

-1.749419529

1984

maddugr01

202

-1.747868822

1994

clemero02

264

-1.745560937

1988

johnsra05

160

-1.743740794

1998

guidrro01

273.667

-1.718647294

1978

vanceda01

258.667

-1.703527009

1930

blylebe01

325

-1.693781338

1973

grovele01

288.667

-1.689469304

1931

maddugr01

245

-1.665155087

1996

 

 

The top 25 in wins over replacement, without HR adjustmets, were

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER REP

hubbeca01

1933

14.68417663

carltst01

1972

14.23979242

gibsobo01

1968

13.9996682

koufasa01

1963

13.55498617

blylebe01

1973

13.47036652

vanceda01

1924

12.77123083

martipe02

1999

12.56087388

koufasa01

1965

12.41876665

covelst01

1920

12.29804956

fellebo01

1946

12.27988974

fellebo01

1940

12.25059985

newhoha01

1945

12.09889273

richaj01

1979

12.06179474

bluevi01

1971

12.06168714

vanceda01

1925

11.89731774

grovele01

1930

11.87291911

blackew01

1947

11.85154206

koufasa01

1966

11.72249652

clemero02

1997

11.63060231

gibsobo01

1970

11.59787636

seaveto01

1971

11.58899201

luquedo01

1923

11.5613571

guidrro01

1978

11.5234248

coopewi01

1920

11.38720226

vanceda01

1928

11.32906205

 

 

Over average were

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER AVG

hubbeca01

1933

11.25454329

gibsobo01

1968

10.61447931

carltst01

1972

10.39164798

martipe02

1999

10.19050721

koufasa01

1963

10.09943062

blylebe01

1973

9.859255414

vanceda01

1924

9.345308612

vanceda01

1925

8.949173292

blackew01

1947

8.818208729

richaj01

1979

8.813650294

covelst01

1920

8.798049564

clemero02

1997

8.697268979

fellebo01

1940

8.691344292

koufasa01

1965

8.689133316

brechha01

1948

8.672575864

grovele01

1930

8.639585776

newhoha01

1945

8.617414956

bluevi01

1971

8.595020475

guidrro01

1978

8.482680352

seaveto01

1971

8.407514236

martipe02

2000

8.332588663

gibsobo01

1970

8.33120969

goodedw01

1985

8.221027245

vanceda01

1928

8.214250936

fellebo01

1946

8.153967516

 

 

Now the top 25 in wins over replacement with HR adjustments

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER REP

hubbeca01

1933

15.90999296

carltst01

1972

13.97092998

blylebe01

1973

13.42011804

gibsobo01

1968

13.1574499

perryga01

1972

12.90660814

newhoha01

1946

12.68016

bluevi01

1971

12.61718453

newhoha01

1945

12.50377247

martipe02

1999

12.42823186

grovele01

1930

12.35679723

koufasa01

1963

12.31735549

vanceda01

1924

12.26619184

guidrro01

1978

11.86511079

covelst01

1920

11.86054618

vanceda01

1925

11.76399494

blackew01

1947

11.72893074

seaveto01

1971

11.51998125

clemero02

1997

11.43130152

fellebo01

1946

11.25241173

clemero02

1988

11.17538817

gibsobo01

1970

11.17181325

jenkife01

1970

11.10374857

goodedw01

1985

11.08789313

brechha01

1948

11.06839614

blylebe01

1974

11.04687575

 

Over average

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER AVG

hubbeca01

1933

12.4803596

carltst01

1972

10.1227855

martipe02

1999

10.0578652

blylebe01

1973

9.80900693

gibsobo01

1968

9.77226101

newhoha01

1946

9.42830445

bluevi01

1971

9.15051786

grovele01

1930

9.12346389

perryga01

1972

9.09919702

newhoha01

1945

9.02229469

koufasa01

1963

8.86179994

vanceda01

1924

8.84026961

guidrro01

1978

8.82436635

vanceda01

1925

8.8158505

blackew01

1947

8.69559741

clemero02

1997

8.49796819

brechha01

1948

8.47580726

maddugr01

1995

8.40823856

covelst01

1920

8.36054618

seaveto01

1971

8.33850347

clemero02

1988

8.24205484

goodedw01

1985

8.01381535

blylebe01

1974

7.92465352

gibsobo01

1970

7.90514659

matlajo01

1974

7.89192235

 

Now the top 25 in wins over replacement with HR adjustments using a 3 year average

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER REP

hubbeca01

1933

15.64344718

carltst01

1972

15.23488913

blylebe01

1973

13.66151926

gibsobo01

1968

13.57539719

newhoha01

1945

12.734846

martipe02

1999

12.41903075

vanceda01

1924

12.40547534

perryga01

1972

12.3387127

grovele01

1930

12.27808302

newhoha01

1946

12.2266529

bluevi01

1971

12.2121073

blackew01

1947

12.14416325

koufasa01

1963

12.13689794

vanceda01

1925

11.85005433

fellebo01

1946

11.65981782

clemero02

1997

11.57865539

seaveto01

1971

11.54314164

guidrro01

1978

11.53720169

mcdowsa01

1969

11.52212278

fellebo01

1940

11.44564536

vanceda01

1928

11.43236328

blylebe01

1974

11.42374061

alexape01

1920

11.29973265

jenkife01

1971

11.29325397

covelst01

1920

11.21361861

 

Now over average

 

LahmanID

Year

OVER AVG

hubbeca01

1933

12.21381385

carltst01

1972

11.38674469

gibsobo01

1968

10.19020831

blylebe01

1973

10.05040815

martipe02

1999

10.04866408

newhoha01

1945

9.253368219

blackew01

1947

9.110829914

grovele01

1930

9.044749682

vanceda01

1924

8.979553116

newhoha01

1946

8.974797348

vanceda01

1925

8.901909886

bluevi01

1971

8.745440631

koufasa01

1963

8.681342385

clemero02

1997

8.645322053

perryga01

1972

8.531301593

guidrro01

1978

8.496457243

brechha01

1948

8.461055741

seaveto01

1971

8.361663858

mcdowsa01

1969

8.355456111

vanceda01

1928

8.317552168

blylebe01

1974

8.301518386

maddugr01

1995

8.23786331

goodedw01

1985

8.119562985

maddugr01

1997

8.013682733

matlajo01

1974

7.953571698

 

 

Now the top 50 in career wins above replacement using the Standard Deviation method, including park adjustments for HRs

 

LahmanID

OVER REP

perryga01 Total

115.046063

grovele01 Total

111.619502

blylebe01 Total

110.59042

maddugr01 Total

101.175626

clemero02 Total

98.7050527

seaveto01 Total

95.988102

hubbeca01 Total

92.9441907

suttodo01 Total

91.9131044

carltst01 Total

91.7485566

johnto01 Total

86.2732467

vanceda01 Total

86.0369081

gibsobo01 Total

83.9030059

ryanno01 Total

81.6947593

jenkife01 Total

77.8945504

niekrph01 Total

74.1168996

bunniji01 Total

73.9888232

spahnwa01 Total

73.0635158

newhoha01 Total

72.4375508

derripa01 Total

71.2939607

reuscri01 Total

70.9609676

kaatji01 Total

69.4723429

drysddo01 Total

68.3963313

brownke01 Total

67.0897748

roberro01 Total

65.6539947

maricju01 Total

65.3622498

lolicmi01 Total

64.9944808

koosmje01 Total

64.4722594

ruffire01 Total

63.0219481

fellebo01 Total

62.5449911

goodedw01 Total

60.317841

koufasa01 Total

56.1407731

jacksla01 Total

55.408124

johnsra05 Total

55.2631408

rixeyep01 Total

54.9860734

lyonste01 Total

54.7302092

fordwh01 Total

54.6832748

hoytwa01 Total

53.7949162

palmeji01 Total

53.2256286

leonadu02 Total

53.0450766

garcimi01 Total

52.7993944

pennohe01 Total

52.7250468

passecl01 Total

52.4348279

simmocu01 Total

51.7536922

rogerst01 Total

51.104925

frienbo01 Total

50.8854323

hardeme01 Total

50.7394445

grimebu01 Total

50.655399

pascuca02 Total

50.0636093

troutdi01 Total

49.9411406

piercbi02 Total

49.6254573

 

 

Now above average

 

LahmanID

OVER AVG

grovele01 Total

70.53802389

maddugr01 Total

64.65340344

clemero02 Total

62.0939305

perryga01 Total

60.90530691

blylebe01 Total

60.88672018

vanceda01 Total

55.96284143

hubbeca01 Total

55.16270179

seaveto01 Total

47.11032424

gibsobo01 Total

43.75856149

newhoha01 Total

42.5745841

johnto01 Total

39.61030221

carltst01 Total

39.41152327

brownke01 Total

37.84163031

reuscri01 Total

37.60170096

goodedw01 Total

36.08819651

bunniji01 Total

35.21475651

suttodo01 Total

35.15014887

koufasa01 Total

32.58891755

drysddo01 Total

32.05929801

johnsra05 Total

31.19277416

derripa01 Total

30.98283852

garcimi01 Total

29.95493888

martipe02 Total

29.74802405

jenkife01 Total

29.22790595

ryanno01 Total

28.22068153

 

Now the top 100 in career SDs below the mean for pitchers with 1000+ IP

 

LahmanID

IP

SD

martipe02 Total

1316.67

-1.5139

vanceda01 Total

2706.67

-1.2584

grovele01 Total

3697.33

-1.2113

clemero02 Total

3295

-1.1798

maddugr01 Total

3287

-1.1387

hubbeca01 Total

3400.33

-0.9416

johnsra05 Total

2166.33

-0.9164

clarkwa02 Total

1387

-0.9137

brownke01 Total

2632.33

-0.9087

goodedw01 Total

2180.67

-0.8905

deandi01 Total

1728.33

-0.8724

mussimi01 Total

1922

-0.866

schilcu01 Total

1348.33

-0.8478

garcimi01 Total

2056

-0.8435

saberbr01 Total

1877.67

-0.8306

newhoha01 Total

2687.67

-0.8223

koufasa01 Total

2119.67

-0.8083

matlajo01 Total

1915.67

-0.8052

allenjo02 Total

1334.67

-0.803

reynosh01 Total

1074.33

-0.7719

blylebe01 Total

4473.33

-0.7548

rijojo01 Total

1397.67

-0.7304

guidrro01 Total

2059.67

-0.7304

laniema01 Total

1093

-0.7148

reuscri01 Total

3002.33

-0.7084

alexape01 Total

2083

-0.6977

higuete01 Total

1119.67

-0.6944

perryga01 Total

4872.67

-0.6758

newcodo01 Total

1706

-0.661

shockur01 Total

2146.67

-0.6516

smoltjo01 Total

2215.67

-0.6505

meltocl01 Total

1245.67

-0.6501

gomezle01 Total

2331

-0.6495

appieke01 Total

1839

-0.637

chandsp01 Total

1218.67

-0.6341

otooji01 Total

1155

-0.6317

gibsobo01 Total

3613

-0.6238

quinnja01 Total

1718.33

-0.6086

chancde01 Total

1949

-0.5984

mcdowsa01 Total

2115

-0.5823

laryfr01 Total

1799.67

-0.5813

passecl01 Total

2470.67

-0.5744

seaveto01 Total

4399

-0.5644

bunniji01 Total

3489.67

-0.5617

maglisa01 Total

1129.33

-0.5597

troutdi01 Total

2404.67

-0.5595

pennohe01 Total

2658.67

-0.5563

parneme01 Total

1432.33

-0.5562

drysddo01 Total

3270.33

-0.5557

johnto01 Total

4199.67

-0.5541

johnssy01 Total

1071.67

-0.5484

covelst01 Total

1861.33

-0.5456

jansela01 Total

1690.33

-0.5393

hoytwa01 Total

2746.33

-0.538

wellsda01 Total

1692.33

-0.5321

hutchfr01 Total

1256.33

-0.532

coopemo01 Total

1632

-0.5292

leeth01 Total

1622.33

-0.5187

rowesc01 Total

1514.67

-0.5175

hughste01 Total

1217.67

-0.5168

leonadu02 Total

2688.67

-0.5165

pascuca02 Total

2479.33

-0.5056

brechha01 Total

1412.67

-0.5021

wyattwh01 Total

1131.33

-0.4952

wittmi01 Total

1816

-0.4948

maysca01 Total

1395.67

-0.4911

derripa01 Total

3628

-0.49

fellebo01 Total

3263.33

-0.4883

pettian01 Total

1249

-0.4877

truckvi01 Total

2241

-0.4875

fordwh01 Total

2812

-0.4757

pipgrge01 Total

1132.33

-0.4741

mungova01 Total

1811

-0.4703

hansoer01 Total

1213.67

-0.4611

rixeyep01 Total

2842.33

-0.4579

odelbi01 Total

1126.33

-0.4556

rogerst01 Total

2665.67

-0.4552

herbera01 Total

1072.67

-0.45

bosioch01 Total

1357

-0.4486

carltst01 Total

4710.33

-0.4465

shawkbo01 Total

1464.67

-0.4441

faberre01 Total

2606.33

-0.4338

keyji01 Total

2288.67

-0.4302

hardeme01 Total

2907.33

-0.4293

haddiha01 Total

1834.67

-0.4292

simmocu01 Total

2836.67

-0.4277

lolicmi01 Total

3410

-0.4264

montejo01 Total

1077.33

-0.4263

donohpe01 Total

1843.67

-0.4196

maricju01 Total

3362.67

-0.4179

peterfr01 Total

2002.33

-0.4155

coneda01 Total

2268.67

-0.4145

antonjo02 Total

1663.67

-0.4132

chrisla01 Total

1010.67

-0.4104

langsma01 Total

2329.33

-0.4076

sullifr01 Total

1639

-0.4065

blantcy01 Total

1069

-0.4006

galehde01 Total

1140.33

-0.3983

koosmje01 Total

3596.33

-0.398

rushbo01 Total

1999.33

-0.3946

 

 

Now the top 50 with 2000+ IP

 

LahmanID

IP

SD

vanceda01 Total

2706.67

-1.2584

grovele01 Total

3697.33

-1.2113

clemero02 Total

3295

-1.1798

maddugr01 Total

3287

-1.1387

hubbeca01 Total

3400.33

-0.9416

johnsra05 Total

2166.33

-0.9164

brownke01 Total

2632.33

-0.9087

goodedw01 Total

2180.67

-0.8905

garcimi01 Total

2056

-0.8435

newhoha01 Total

2687.67

-0.8223

koufasa01 Total

2119.67

-0.8083

blylebe01 Total

4473.33

-0.7548

guidrro01 Total

2059.67

-0.7304

reuscri01 Total

3002.33

-0.7084

alexape01 Total

2083

-0.6977

perryga01 Total

4872.67

-0.6758

shockur01 Total

2146.67

-0.6516

smoltjo01 Total

2215.67

-0.6505

gomezle01 Total

2331

-0.6495

gibsobo01 Total

3613

-0.6238

chancde01 Total

1949

-0.5984

mcdowsa01 Total

2115

-0.5823

passecl01 Total

2470.67

-0.5744

seaveto01 Total

4399

-0.5644

bunniji01 Total

3489.67

-0.5617

troutdi01 Total

2404.67

-0.5595

pennohe01 Total

2658.67

-0.5563

drysddo01 Total

3270.33

-0.5557

johnto01 Total

4199.67

-0.5541

hoytwa01 Total

2746.33

-0.538

leonadu02 Total

2688.67

-0.5165

pascuca02 Total

2479.33

-0.5056

derripa01 Total

3628

-0.49

fellebo01 Total

3263.33

-0.4883

truckvi01 Total

2241

-0.4875

fordwh01 Total

2812

-0.4757

rixeyep01 Total

2842.33

-0.4579

rogerst01 Total

2665.67

-0.4552

carltst01 Total

4710.33

-0.4465

faberre01 Total

2606.33

-0.4338

keyji01 Total

2288.67

-0.4302

hardeme01 Total

2907.33

-0.4293

simmocu01 Total

2836.67

-0.4277

lolicmi01 Total

3410

-0.4264

maricju01 Total

3362.67

-0.4179

peterfr01 Total

2002.33

-0.4155

coneda01 Total

2268.67

-0.4145

langsma01 Total

2329.33

-0.4076

koosmje01 Total

3596.33

-0.398

rushbo01 Total

1999.33

-0.3946

 

 

Another look at career data

 

The first thing I did here was to get all the pitchers from 1920-2004 who had 2000+ IP. Then I found their HRs, BBs, and Ks relative to the league average using the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia. I adjusted these numbers to give them HRs, BBs and Ks per 9 IP.

 

The averages over the time period were

 

HR = .774

BB = 3.34

K = 4.97

 

If a pitcher had 10% more Ks than average,  he got 5.467 Ks. Once that was done for all pitchers, that data got plugged into 

 

 

(1) DIPS ERA = Constant + 1.4*HR + .33*BB - .22*SO

 

(2) Constant = League ERA - (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP for the league and year in question.

 

I computed the constant over the time period and it was 2.85. Here are the top 100. In these cases, HRs are not adjusted for park effects.

 

Pitcher

DIPS

Dazzy Vance

2.372503

Pedro Martinez

2.559491

Lefty Grove

2.704256

Randy Johnson

2.859197

Roger Clemens

2.916254

Curt Schilling

3.042948

Greg Maddux

3.074931

Kevin Brown

3.108282

Bob Feller

3.141746

Bret Saberhagen

3.142198

Mike Mussina

3.154697

Hal Newhouser

3.172099

Sandy Koufax

3.178361

Paul Derringer

3.196414

Mike Garcia

3.219892

Ron Guidry

3.231293

Lefty Gomez

3.232594

Hoyt Wilhelm

3.251882

Nolan Ryan

3.264489

John Smoltz

3.264687

Pete Donohue

3.264993

Claude Passeau

3.289062

Jon Matlack

3.298568

Eppa Rixey

3.299449

Dutch Leonard

3.306653

Bert Blyleven

3.307012

Carl Hubbell

3.325814

Jack Quinn

3.333881

Don Drysdale

3.352197

Schoolboy Rowe

3.359094

Tommy Bridges

3.363097

Dean Chance

3.363795

Harvey Haddix

3.372087

Red Faber

3.375456

Van Lingle Mungo

3.378551

Dwight Gooden

3.38162

Dennis Eckersley

3.383096

Dizzy Trout

3.387514

Tom Seaver

3.402292

Bob Gibson

3.403582

David Cone

3.414485

Dolf Luque

3.420248

Whitey Ford

3.420432

Gaylord Perry

3.422983

Bob Rush

3.42478

Herb Pennock

3.42487

Kevin Appier

3.459189

Rick Reuschel

3.463194

Steve Rogers

3.467348

Jim Bunning

3.470949

George Uhle

3.476348

David Wells

3.48954

Bobo Newsom

3.505367

Mark Gubicza

3.507259

Sam McDowell

3.515019

Firpo Marberry

3.516307

Charlie Root

3.520584

Red Ruffing

3.523379

Lindy McDaniel

3.528059

Camilo Pascual

3.528149

Billy Pierce

3.53139

Brad Radke

3.531825

Juan Marichal

3.536564

Don Sutton

3.536792

Grover C Alexander

3.538225

Tommy John

3.543483

Bill Singer

3.544459

Robin Roberts

3.544576

Jerry Koosman

3.547825

Virgil Trucks

3.552197

John Burkett

3.557494

Allie Reynolds

3.562682

Mickey Lolich

3.56306

Warren Spahn

3.563972

Jimmy Key

3.568894

Bob Friend

3.569193

Steve Carlton

3.571106

Ron Reed

3.5715

Johnny Vander Meer

3.576364

Thornton Lee

3.576814

Denny Galehouse

3.57936

Orel Hershiser

3.590508

Dennis Leonard

3.592665

Chuck Finley

3.595976

Mel Harder

3.596744

Larry French

3.599819

Waite Hoyt

3.60317

Fritz Peterson

3.604184

Mike Witt

3.604903

Don Newcombe

3.607447

Kevin Tapani

3.608754

Burleigh Grimes

3.60946

Gary Peters

3.611783

Rudy May

3.620926

John Candelaria

3.626864

Greg Swindell

3.637315

Andy Messersmith

3.638328

Ferguson Jenkins

3.6384

Joe Horlen

3.648014

Jim Kaat

3.648685

 

Then I plugged each guy’s relative HRs, BBs, and Ks into

 

(4) RELERA = .656 + .236*REHR + .278*RELBB - .1956*RELSO.

 

This equation is above in an earlier section. Here are the top 100.

 

Pitcher

Pred-RELREG

Dazzy Vance

0.676316971

Pedro Martinez

0.688549185

Lefty Grove

0.720637026

Roger Clemens

0.764264611

Greg Maddux

0.767991775

Randy Johnson

0.770862296

Curt Schilling

0.777879641

Bret Saberhagen

0.782754376

Kevin Brown

0.784444731

Mike Mussina

0.793935659

Paul Derringer

0.802526767

Pete Donohue

0.807254618

Eppa Rixey

0.812630642

Mike Garcia

0.812741576

Dutch Leonard

0.815503592

Jack Quinn

0.821955624

Ron Guidry

0.823738785

Hal Newhouser

0.825824197

Claude Passeau

0.825885489

Bob Feller

0.827541498

Jon Matlack

0.830513087

Hoyt Wilhelm

0.831407625

John Smoltz

0.831533247

Schoolboy Rowe

0.83467765

Carl Hubbell

0.837643467

Bert Blyleven

0.837677922

Sandy Koufax

0.83849334

Red Faber

0.842622465

Don Drysdale

0.843460244

Lefty Gomez

0.844359333

Herb Pennock

0.846328159

Dennis Eckersley

0.849404515

Dean Chance

0.851177995

Harvey Haddix

0.851850677

Gaylord Perry

0.855908377

Dizzy Trout

0.856268296

David Wells

0.856971253

Rick Reuschel

0.857456047

Bob Rush

0.859129652

Brad Radke

0.859658681

Dwight Gooden

0.859663407

Whitey Ford

0.860022739

Grover C Alexander

0.860880524

Tom Seaver

0.860907762

Dolf Luque

0.861597224

Steve Rogers

0.864997803

Robin Roberts

0.86724241

Bob Gibson

0.868533736

Tommy John

0.86896673

George Uhle

0.870825994

Kevin Appier

0.871556333

Tommy Bridges

0.871584081

Juan Marichal

0.872062896

Fritz Peterson

0.872129551

Jim Bunning

0.872726127

Bob Friend

0.874901594

Mark Gubicza

0.875967773

David Cone

0.87633534

Jimmy Key

0.877170636

John Burkett

0.877600986

Nolan Ryan

0.877833043

Warren Spahn

0.879809156

Lindy McDaniel

0.880125468

Don Sutton

0.880556173

Ron Reed

0.88216063

Firpo Marberry

0.883455743

Kevin Tapani

0.885083907

Mel Harder

0.886424672

Billy Pierce

0.888303387

Don Newcombe

0.888351434

Van Lingle Mungo

0.888453961

Red Ruffing

0.888688198

Jerry Koosman

0.889184934

Waite Hoyt

0.889411284

Thornton Lee

0.889969091

Charlie Root

0.890483002

Orel Hershiser

0.890824909

Denny Galehouse

0.892798977

Jim Kaat

0.893031895

Larry French

0.893294161

Camilo Pascual

0.893353147

Joe Horlen

0.893648512

Greg Swindell

0.894281216

Bill Singer

0.894886141

Dennis Leonard

0.895458469

Mickey Lolich

0.896680725

John Candelaria

0.897050539

Ken Raffensberger

0.89735481

Larry Jackson

0.898515958

Frank Lary

0.898689509

Virgil Trucks

0.899603517

Bobo Newsom

0.900022433

Mike Witt

0.901912809

Ferguson Jenkins

0.902616274

Gary Peters

0.90279807

Wilbur Wood

0.904404444

Red Lucas

0.905021224

Steve Carlton

0.905976386

Burleigh Grimes

0.906141587

Charlie Leibrandt

0.906446272

 

Then I ran another regression in which a pitcher’s career ERA (relative to the league average) was the dependent variable and HRs, BBs, and Ks (relative to the league average) are the independent variables. The regression equation was

 

 

RELERA = .728 + .228*RELHR + .247*RELBB - .229*RELSO

 

The r-squared was .587 and the standard error was .056.

 

Then plugging each guy’s data into the formula, the top 100 were

 

Pitcher

Pred-REG

Dazzy Vance

0.643264

Pedro Martinez

0.679418

Lefty Grove

0.71057

Randy Johnson

0.746906

Roger Clemens

0.756355

Curt Schilling

0.779177

Greg Maddux

0.78484

Kevin Brown

0.794259

Bret Saberhagen

0.798099

Mike Mussina

0.802058

Bob Feller

0.807086

Paul Derringer

0.811578

Hal Newhouser

0.812352

Sandy Koufax

0.814878

Mike Garcia

0.818546

Ron Guidry

0.820731

Pete Donohue

0.825705

Lefty Gomez

0.82596

Hoyt Wilhelm

0.827894

John Smoltz

0.829216

Claude Passeau

0.832962

Eppa Rixey

0.833673

Dutch Leonard

0.83383

Jon Matlack

0.834727

Bert Blyleven

0.836587

Carl Hubbell

0.838902

Nolan Ryan

0.839148

Jack Quinn

0.839923

Schoolboy Rowe

0.845442

Don Drysdale

0.846202

Harvey Haddix

0.85028

Dennis Eckersley

0.850827

Red Faber

0.851409

Dean Chance

0.851802

Tommy Bridges

0.852943

Dwight Gooden

0.855192

Dizzy Trout

0.856293

Tom Seaver

0.857777

Herb Pennock

0.859471

Van Lingle Mungo

0.860624

Gaylord Perry

0.860855

Bob Gibson

0.860968

Whitey Ford

0.862331

Dolf Luque

0.862778

Bob Rush

0.862984

David Cone

0.863855

Rick Reuschel

0.868953

Kevin Appier

0.871246

Jim Bunning

0.87129

Steve Rogers

0.87184

David Wells

0.871866

George Uhle

0.87355

Brad Radke

0.879579

Grover C Alexander

0.880857

Mark Gubicza

0.881299

Firpo Marberry

0.88258

Juan Marichal

0.882593

Robin Roberts

0.882921

Charlie Root

0.883556

Bobo Newsom

0.884212

Lindy McDaniel

0.884276

Red Ruffing

0.884284

Don Sutton

0.884433

Billy Pierce

0.885593

Tommy John

0.885818

Camilo Pascual

0.886573

John Burkett

0.888638

Jerry Koosman

0.889073

Warren Spahn

0.890319

Jimmy Key

0.890349

Bob Friend

0.890735

Bill Singer

0.890767

Sam McDowell

0.891235

Virgil Trucks

0.891409

Ron Reed

0.89156

Mickey Lolich

0.891906

Thornton Lee

0.895009

Fritz Peterson

0.895374

Denny Galehouse

0.895823

Steve Carlton

0.895971

Allie Reynolds

0.89722

Dennis Leonard

0.897276

Don Newcombe

0.897533

Orel Hershiser

0.897827

Kevin Tapani

0.897961

Mel Harder

0.898102

Waite Hoyt

0.89899

Larry French

0.899023

Mike Witt

0.901983

Chuck Finley

0.902362

John Candelaria

0.902457

Gary Peters

0.903657

Greg Swindell

0.903902

Burleigh Grimes

0.904072

Johnny Vander Meer

0.904142

Ferguson Jenkins

0.90469

Rudy May

0.906586

Jim Kaat

0.906847

Joe Horlen

0.908261

Frank Lary

0.910096