I looked at all pitchers who had at least 150 IP from 1920-2000.

(1) DIPS ERA = Constant + 1.4*HR + .33*BB - .22*SO

(2) Constant = League ERA - (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP for the league and year in question. From

http://mb7.scout.com/fbaseballfrm8.showMessage?topicID=1060.topic

Strategy and Sabermetrics. Posted by PitchingWins.

The best 25 seasons by this method are

LahmanID	Year	DIPS
martipe02	1999	1.468835
goodedw01	1984	1.727534
tiantlu01	1968	1.908663
koufasa01	1963	1.90991
gibsobo01	1968	1.934264
mcdowsa01	1965	1.959322
johnsra05	1998	1.962719
chancde01	1968	2.01378
seaveto01	1971	2.036904
newhoha01	1946	2.047756
mcdowsa01	1968	2.052816
koufasa01	1965	2.069366
goodedw01	1985	2.081573
siebeso01	1965	2.119666
johnsra05	1995	2.129544
bluevi01	1971	2.129888
mcdowsa01	1969	2.138823
brownke01	1998	2.151403
gullibi01	1981	2.15264
scottmi03	1986	2.153301
martipe02	2000	2.157238
clemero02	1990	2.162582
carltst01	1972	2.183184
richaj01	1979	2.185583
guidrro01	1978	2.205397

If HRs are park adjusted (divided HRs by the park factor provided to me by Ron Selter, then used that value in the above formula-For example, if the factor was 120, I divided by 110 since a pitcher only pitches half his games at home).

LahmanID	Year	DIPS-HR
martipe02	1999	1.515058
goodedw01	1984	1.735791
tiantlu01	1968	1.86449
newhoha01	1946	1.910105
mcdowsa01	1965	1.949191
johnsra05	1998	1.97182
gibsobo01	1968	1.993378
chancde01	1968	1.997993
mcdowsa01	1968	2.018349
seaveto01	1971	2.044905
koufasa01	1963	2.059276
bluevi01	1971	2.069777
sutclri01	1984	2.091717
siebeso01	1965	2.096862
johnsra05	1995	2.099166
goodedw01	1985	2.106241
clemero02	1990	2.140718
guidrro01	1978	2.155977
perryga01	1972	2.156752
brownke01	1998	2.176439
gullibi01	1981	2.18386
clemero02	1988	2.18846
mcdowsa01	1969	2.1888
maddugr01	1995	2.192309
chandsp01	1943	2.195147

I also caclulated a 3 year average for HR park effects and then recalculated the DIPS ERA. Here are the top 25

LahmanID	Year	DIPS-HR
martipe02	1999	1.518215
goodedw01	1984	1.722868
tiantlu01	1968	1.875058
mcdowsa01	1965	1.945923
newhoha01	1946	1.95534
gibsobo01	1968	1.964161
chancde01	1968	1.988885
mcdowsa01	1968	2.026595
johnsra05	1998	2.027895
seaveto01	1971	2.04222
mcdowsa01	1969	2.063134
koufasa01	1963	2.080971
siebeso01	1965	2.089506
goodedw01	1985	2.093655
johnsra05	1995	2.107891
carltst01	1972	2.112031
bluevi01	1971	2.113616
sutclri01	1984	2.142243
clemero02	1990	2.14536
brownke01	1998	2.16284
gullibi01	1981	2.170262
perryga01	1972	2.194914
chandsp01	1943	2.200026
guidrro01	1978	2.203409
maddugr01	1995	2.231753

The leaders in value based on the above formulas. IP are divided by 9 to get games. That gets multiplied by .400 and .500 to get the number of wins by a replacement pitcher and an average pitcher. Then the Pythagorean winning percentage is calculated for each pitcher, assuming they allow an average number of runs (4, which is close to the historical average-this is the right way to do it since all of these seasons are adjusted to the league and yearly conditions through the constant term) and and give up their DIPS ERA. That gets multiplied by the number of games to get Pythagorean wins. Then the wins by a replacement pitcher and an average pitcher gets subtracted from Pythagorean wins to get each pitcher’s value. Here are the top 25 over replacement:

LahmanID	Year	Value over Rep
fellebo01	1946	15.00873388
koufasa01	1965	14.5032789
koufasa01	1963	14.31783273
carltst01	1972	14.25658384
gibsobo01	1968	13.8955398
perryga01	1972	13.23628528
bluevi01	1971	13.14225534
chancde01	1968	12.90619545
koufasa01	1966	12.88992676
newhoha01	1946	12.75839066
blylebe01	1973	12.65320012
mclaide01	1968	12.62775984
seaveto01	1971	12.53772556
alexape01	1920	12.42509725
mcdowsa01	1965	12.33033375
richaj01	1979	12.0210835
mcdowsa01	1969	11.95921044
hubbeca01	1933	11.95626
tiantlu01	1968	11.89880982
goodedw01	1985	11.89361602
mcdowsa01	1968	11.70235167
jenkife01	1971	11.69424681
lolicmi01	1971	11.68271621
newhoha01	1945	11.6797677
woodwi01	1971	11.64025623

Now, over the average

LahmanID	Year	Value over AVG
fellebo01	1946	10.88281166
koufasa01	1963	10.86227718
koufasa01	1965	10.77364557
gibsobo01	1968	10.51035091
carltst01	1972	10.4084394
bluevi01	1971	9.675588671
chancde01	1968	9.661751001
newhoha01	1946	9.506535101
perryga01	1972	9.42887417
seaveto01	1971	9.35624778
koufasa01	1966	9.301037874
mcdowsa01	1965	9.297000415
blylebe01	1973	9.042089013
martipe02	1999	9.035356383
tiantlu01	1968	9.028443157
mclaide01	1968	8.894426505
goodedw01	1985	8.819538242
mcdowsa01	1969	8.792543772
richaj01	1979	8.77293906
mcdowsa01	1968	8.713462779
hubbeca01	1933	8.526626665
scottmi03	1986	8.42266615
alexape01	1920	8.388063914
goodedw01	1984	8.303338617
newhoha01	1945	8.198289927

Now the value over replacement and average with HRs adjusted for park factors:

Year	LahmanID	OVER REP
1946	fellebo01	14.4600062
1972	perryga01	14.268621
1972	carltst01	14.1372959
1968	mclaide01	13.7524277
1968	gibsobo01	13.5766106
1963	koufasa01	13.4935882
1971	bluevi01	13.478401
1946	newhoha01	13.4728085
1968	chancde01	12.9881941
1965	koufasa01	12.6409844
1973	blylebe01	12.6164597
1971	seaveto01	12.4968439
1933	hubbeca01	12.4108195
1965	mcdowsa01	12.3792608
1920	alexape01	12.3597412
1971	jenkife01	12.34649
1966	koufasa01	12.2159219
1972	lolicmi01	12.1969486
1968	tiantlu01	12.0988896
1971	lolicmi01	12.0643535
1968	mcdowsa01	11.8677282
1945	newhoha01	11.8364237
1985	goodedw01	11.7713331
1978	niekrph01	11.7496946
1969	mcdowsa01	11.7030334

Year	LahmanID	OVER AVG
1972	perryga01	10.4612099
1946	fellebo01	10.3340839
1972	carltst01	10.2891515
1946	newhoha01	10.2209529
1968	gibsobo01	10.1914217
1963	koufasa01	10.0380326
1968	mclaide01	10.0190943
1971	bluevi01	10.0117344
1968	chancde01	9.74374965
1965	mcdowsa01	9.34592745
1971	seaveto01	9.31536611
1968	tiantlu01	9.22852292
1973	blylebe01	9.00534856
1933	hubbeca01	8.98118617
1965	koufasa01	8.91135107
1968	mcdowsa01	8.87883932
1999	martipe02	8.87789337
1971	jenkife01	8.73537892
1985	goodedw01	8.69725527
1966	koufasa01	8.62703297
1972	lolicmi01	8.55991527
1969	mcdowsa01	8.53636676
1978	guidrro01	8.35853742
1945	newhoha01	8.35494591
1920	alexape01	8.3227079

Now the values if the three year average is used for HR park effects. First the value over replacement.

LahmanID	Year	OVER REP
carltst01	1972	14.6994452
fellebo01	1946	14.6786405
perryga01	1972	14.0333038
gibsobo01	1968	13.7345079
mclaide01	1968	13.4566688
koufasa01	1963	13.372906
newhoha01	1946	13.239241
bluevi01	1971	13.2333771
koufasa01	1965	13.1952705
chancde01	1968	13.0354422
jenkife01	1971	12.859714
blylebe01	1973	12.7930915
lolicmi01	1971	12.7122114
alexape01	1920	12.5271807
seaveto01	1971	12.5105657
mcdowsa01	1965	12.3950312
mcdowsa01	1969	12.345854
hubbeca01	1933	12.309843
tiantlu01	1968	12.0511408
koufasa01	1966	11.9740345
woodwi01	1971	11.9578451
newhoha01	1945	11.9259326
goodedw01	1985	11.8337475
mcdowsa01	1968	11.8282101
niekrph01	1978	11.5448284

Now, the value over average with the three year average for HR park effects.

LahmanID	Year	OVER AVG
carltst01	1972	10.8513008
fellebo01	1946	10.5527183
gibsobo01	1968	10.349319
perryga01	1972	10.2258927
newhoha01	1946	9.98738548
koufasa01	1963	9.91735048
chancde01	1968	9.79099775
bluevi01	1971	9.76671046
mclaide01	1968	9.72333548
koufasa01	1965	9.46563717
mcdowsa01	1965	9.36169785
seaveto01	1971	9.32908789
jenkife01	1971	9.24860287
blylebe01	1973	9.1819804
tiantlu01	1968	9.18077417
mcdowsa01	1969	9.17918735
hubbeca01	1933	8.88020965
martipe02	1999	8.86704781
mcdowsa01	1968	8.83932126
goodedw01	1985	8.75966969
lolicmi01	1971	8.53443364
alexape01	1920	8.4901474
newhoha01	1945	8.44445478
koufasa01	1966	8.38514563
goodedw01	1984	8.32066473

Then I ran a regression in which a pitcher’s ERA minus the league average ERA was the dependent variable and his HRs, BBs, and Ks (all minus the league average) were the independent variables. The regression equation was

(3) ERADIFF = -.10 + 1.398*HRDIFF - .168*KDIFF + .329*BBDIFF

The r-squared was .445 and the standard error was .521

The pitchers who were predicted by this equation to be the most under the league aveage were

LahmanID	DIFF	Year
martipe02	-3.09035	1999
martipe02	-2.52031	2000
johnsra05	-2.31383	1995
clemero02	-2.1885	1997
johnsra05	-2.04103	1998
brownke01	-2.02658	1998
maddugr01	-1.91459	1995
maddugr01	-1.90839	1994
johnsra05	-1.90135	2000
maddugr01	-1.84205	1997
eichhma01	-1.78088	1986
clemero02	-1.74567	1998
martipe02	-1.68795	1997
clemero02	-1.68607	1990
reuscri01	-1.67647	1987
johnsra05	-1.65905	1999
goodedw01	-1.63777	1984
brechha01	-1.62735	1948
brownke01	-1.61454	1996
maddugr01	-1.59239	1996
pettian01	-1.58477	1997
clemero02	-1.57739	1988
maddugr01	-1.55464	2000
clemero02	-1.53242	1987
brownke01	-1.52625	2000

Then I adjusted HRs for park effects and the pitchers the most below the league average were

LahmanID	Year	Pred
martipe02	1999	-3.04423
martipe02	2000	-2.37313
johnsra05	1995	-2.34414
clemero02	1997	-2.14869
johnsra05	1998	-2.03194
brownke01	1998	-2.00159
maddugr01	1995	-1.98948
maddugr01	1994	-1.89936
johnsra05	2000	-1.83366
maddugr01	1997	-1.80824
eichhma01	1986	-1.72137
clemero02	1990	-1.70789
reuscri01	1987	-1.69617
clemero02	1998	-1.69092
maddugr01	1996	-1.639
martipe02	1997	-1.63474
goodedw01	1984	-1.62953
clemero02	1988	-1.62322
johnsra05	1999	-1.59363
brechha01	1948	-1.59143
grovele01	1930	-1.57737
pettian01	1997	-1.57538
smoltjo01	1996	-1.57294
brownke01	1996	-1.56922
johnsra05	1997	-1.55096

Now, if a guy pitches in a high ERA season, it makes it easier to go far below the league ERA. So I calculated the win value over the replacement pitcher and average pitcher here, with and without HRs being adjusted for park factors. A pitcher got a predicted ERA based on how much they differed from the leauge average. That got used in the Pythagorean formula, as described above. First the value without HR adjustment

LahmanID	OVER REP	Year
koufasa01	11.80012456	1965
fellebo01	11.79423457	1946
blylebe01	11.74082376	1973
carltst01	11.70095302	1972
koufasa01	11.43812655	1963
martipe02	11.42972416	1999
clemero02	11.33542675	1997
brownke01	11.02411794	1998
koufasa01	10.84460828	1966
bluevi01	10.63813565	1971
newhoha01	10.33995909	1946
richaj01	10.27881245	1979
mcdowsa01	10.23264092	1969
seaveto01	10.21293881	1971
goodedw01	10.17891245	1985
gibsobo01	10.14915607	1970
gibsobo01	10.07752187	1968
gibsobo01	9.955099659	1969
scottmi03	9.934808754	1986
guidrro01	9.873182031	1978
chancde01	9.846271891	1964
martipe02	9.833110674	2000
mcdowsa01	9.794380864	1965
clemero02	9.765470454	1988
woodwi01	9.706612082	1971

LahmanID	OVER AVG	Year
martipe02	9.05935749	1999
clemero02	8.40209342	1997
brownke01	8.168562382	1998
blylebe01	8.129712649	1973
koufasa01	8.070491228	1965
koufasa01	7.982570993	1963
carltst01	7.852808576	1972
fellebo01	7.668312344	1946
martipe02	7.421999563	2000
koufasa01	7.255719392	1966
bluevi01	7.171468988	1971
goodedw01	7.104834673	1985
newhoha01	7.088103531	1946
mcdowsa01	7.065974258	1969
seaveto01	7.031461034	1971
richaj01	7.030668002	1979
johnsra05	6.995060613	1995
gibsobo01	6.882489403	1970
scottmi03	6.875553199	1986
guidrro01	6.832437586	1978
clemero02	6.832137121	1988
mcdowsa01	6.761047531	1965
chancde01	6.753683002	1964
maddugr01	6.7175698	1997
gibsobo01	6.69233298	1968

Now the values with the HR adjustment

LahmanID	Year	OVER REP
blylebe01	1973	11.70256092
carltst01	1972	11.56445967
martipe02	1999	11.30116959
fellebo01	1946	11.18346355
newhoha01	1946	11.16704497
clemero02	1997	11.14902633
bluevi01	1971	11.02459727
brownke01	1998	10.91548829
perryga01	1972	10.56149662
koufasa01	1963	10.42702178
seaveto01	1971	10.1656077
guidrro01	1978	10.13025138
koufasa01	1966	10.1107353
jenkife01	1970	10.06568414
jenkife01	1971	10.06332212
goodedw01	1985	10.04264685
clemero02	1988	9.984642909
mcdowsa01	1969	9.951478116
niekrph01	1978	9.931108344
hubbeca01	1933	9.893415675
mcdowsa01	1965	9.851746563
gibsobo01	1970	9.828951928
koufasa01	1965	9.735919535
gibsobo01	1969	9.69779467
gibsobo01	1968	9.650209987

LahmanID	Year	OVER AVG
martipe02	1999	8.93080292
clemero02	1997	8.21569299
blylebe01	1973	8.09144981
brownke01	1998	8.05993274
newhoha01	1946	7.91518941
carltst01	1972	7.71631522
bluevi01	1971	7.55793061
johnsra05	1995	7.09318887
guidrro01	1978	7.08950694
fellebo01	1946	7.05754132
clemero02	1988	7.05130958
seaveto01	1971	6.98412993
koufasa01	1963	6.97146623
goodedw01	1985	6.96856908
martipe02	2000	6.95998961
mcdowsa01	1965	6.81841323
mcdowsa01	1969	6.78481145
perryga01	1972	6.75408551
maddugr01	1995	6.62203217
jenkife01	1970	6.58790636
maddugr01	1997	6.58267537
gibsobo01	1970	6.56228526
clemero02	1990	6.5573807
goodedw01	1984	6.5411674
koufasa01	1966	6.52184641

Then I ran a regression in which a pitcher’s ERA relative to the league average was the dependent variable and his HRs, BBs, and Ks (all relative to the league average) were the independent variables. The regression equation was

(4) RELERA = .656 + .236*REHR + .278*RELBB - .1956*RELSO

The r-squared was .421 and the standard error was .135

Then I plugged the data for each pitcher into the above formual. Here are the top 25 in RELERA

LahmanID	Pred	Year
martipe02	0.43480939	1999
vanceda01	0.47040295	1925
martipe02	0.525032427	2000
vanceda01	0.538979572	1924
grovele01	0.543423273	1930
johnsra05	0.567754344	1995
vanceda01	0.574332511	1928
brechha01	0.590017041	1948
maddugr01	0.594263364	1995
grovele01	0.599711662	1927
clemero02	0.603198483	1997
brownke01	0.603896307	1998
maddugr01	0.603973692	1994
maddugr01	0.608603497	1997
blantcy01	0.608823103	1935
hubbeca01	0.613965028	1933
grovele01	0.61499381	1926
allenjo02	0.615813551	1936
braxtga01	0.61618469	1927
adamsba01	0.616364775	1922
clemero02	0.62636164	1990
vanceda01	0.627736496	1930
johnsra05	0.62814774	1998
goodedw01	0.62821268	1984
luquedo01	0.628537826	1923

I adjusted each pitcher’s HRs for park effects and then plugged the data into the formula, the top 25 were

LahmanID	Pred-HR	Year
martipe02	0.438826	1999
vanceda01	0.469198	1925
martipe02	0.521009	2000
grovele01	0.547239	1930
maddugr01	0.57703	1995
vanceda01	0.583102	1928
braxtga01	0.585036	1927
clemero02	0.590669	1997
brechha01	0.595487	1948
johnsra05	0.596057	1995
vanceda01	0.59757	1924
vanceda01	0.601476	1930
blantcy01	0.602471	1935
grovele01	0.603906	1927
maddugr01	0.604937	1997
allenjo02	0.608589	1936
brownke01	0.609251	1998
grovele01	0.615871	1932
maddugr01	0.623192	1994
adamsba01	0.623551	1922
johnsra05	0.625693	1998
goodedw01	0.628732	1984
gullibi01	0.629633	1981
hubbeca01	0.638055	1933
johnsra05	0.638854	2000

The win value

LahmanID	Year	OVER REP
vanceda01	1924	12.84357908
vanceda01	1925	12.34723466
grovele01	1930	12.0285383
fellebo01	1946	11.86223512
luquedo01	1923	11.33494206
hubbeca01	1933	11.18887597
vanceda01	1928	10.96289163
fellebo01	1940	10.66800224
blylebe01	1973	10.66434942
martipe02	1999	10.45334108
newhoha01	1945	10.21789774
newhoha01	1946	10.11516429
carltst01	1972	10.04197235
koufasa01	1965	10.0364446
grovele01	1927	9.778643027
grovele01	1931	9.776033525
clemero02	1997	9.774433317
faberre01	1922	9.750227556
grovele01	1929	9.630831794
donohpe01	1925	9.592266757
grovele01	1932	9.563299404
rixeyep01	1923	9.554212152
koufasa01	1963	9.553396494
brownke01	1998	9.502339308
roberro01	1953	9.496274754

LahmanID	Year	OVER AVG
vanceda01	1924	9.4176569
vanceda01	1925	9.3990902
grovele01	1930	8.795205
martipe02	1999	8.0829744
vanceda01	1928	7.8480805
hubbeca01	1933	7.7592426
luquedo01	1923	7.7571643
fellebo01	1946	7.7363129
fellebo01	1940	7.1087467
blylebe01	1973	7.0532383
grovele01	1927	6.8638319
newhoha01	1946	6.8633087
martipe02	2000	6.8453499
clemero02	1997	6.8411
newhoha01	1945	6.73642
brownke01	1998	6.6467838
grovele01	1929	6.5715762
grovele01	1931	6.5686224
blantcy01	1935	6.4875422
grovele01	1926	6.4664817
guidrro01	1978	6.3515167
grovele01	1932	6.322555
koufasa01	1965	6.3068113
gomezle01	1937	6.3008851
brechha01	1948	6.2681973

The win value with HR adjustment

LahmanID	Year	OVER REP
grovele01	1930	12.43246432
vanceda01	1924	12.36012222
vanceda01	1925	12.22793184
hubbeca01	1933	12.00295878
fellebo01	1946	11.18232483
newhoha01	1946	11.03423
luquedo01	1923	10.84215077
blylebe01	1973	10.63395814
vanceda01	1928	10.62952527
grovele01	1932	10.53264399
newhoha01	1945	10.516926
martipe02	1999	10.35632119
grovele01	1929	10.16055517
grovele01	1926	9.96421725
carltst01	1972	9.935442997
grovele01	1931	9.929943497
grovele01	1927	9.865400025
fellebo01	1940	9.769763845
hubbeca01	1936	9.695261661
clemero02	1997	9.642992795
guidrro01	1978	9.610137563
vanceda01	1930	9.597871688
roberro01	1953	9.540441639
newhoha01	1944	9.490117679
mungova01	1936	9.43728698

LahmanID	Year	OVER AVG
vanceda01	1925	9.2797874
grovele01	1930	9.19913098
vanceda01	1924	8.9342
hubbeca01	1933	8.57332545
martipe02	1999	7.98595453
newhoha01	1946	7.78237444
vanceda01	1928	7.51471416
grovele01	1932	7.29189955
luquedo01	1923	7.26437299
grovele01	1929	7.10129961
grovele01	1926	7.09755058
fellebo01	1946	7.05640261
newhoha01	1945	7.03544823
blylebe01	1973	7.02284703
grovele01	1927	6.95058891
vanceda01	1930	6.72379391
grovele01	1931	6.72253239
clemero02	1997	6.70965946
guidrro01	1978	6.56939312
brownke01	1998	6.56873348
martipe02	2000	6.52350629
blantcy01	1935	6.3990246
gomezle01	1937	6.33473756
hubbeca01	1936	6.31748388
grovele01	1928	6.30343554

Now the top 25 in career wins above replacement level using Equation (1) with park adjustments for HRs.

LahmanID	OVER REP
perryga01 Total	134.8210117
ryanno01 Total	130.1410162
carltst01 Total	126.0350086
seaveto01 Total	119.9717665
blylebe01 Total	119.518118
suttodo01 Total	115.0825686
jenkife01 Total	105.1758182
gibsobo01 Total	104.5010582
niekrph01 Total	101.9524381
lolicmi01 Total	95.84384907
johnto01 Total	95.23393048
maddugr01 Total	94.41481446
bunniji01 Total	90.97957578
kaatji01 Total	90.12162779
clemero02 Total	89.29489174
drysddo01 Total	85.63130028
spahnwa01 Total	85.3964287
maricju01 Total	85.02873448
koosmje01 Total	82.3383086
derripa01 Total	81.22763757
hubbeca01 Total	79.75220371
reuscri01 Total	77.67393236
grovele01 Total	76.55978487
roberro01 Total	76.52688924
palmeji01 Total	72.75113681

Now the top 25 over average

LahmanID	OVER AVG
perryga01 Total	80.68025619
ryanno01 Total	76.6669384
carltst01 Total	73.69797523
seaveto01 Total	71.0939887
blylebe01 Total	69.81441797
gibsobo01 Total	64.35661376
suttodo01 Total	58.31961304
lolicmi01 Total	57.95493796
maddugr01 Total	57.89259224
jenkife01 Total	56.50917371
clemero02 Total	52.68376952
bunniji01 Total	52.20550911
drysddo01 Total	49.29426694
johnto01 Total	48.57098604
kaatji01 Total	47.73275001
maricju01 Total	47.66577893
mcdowsa01 Total	47.34219959
niekrph01 Total	46.54873806
reuscri01 Total	44.31466569
koufasa01 Total	43.83505335
koosmje01 Total	42.37904193
hubbeca01 Total	41.97071482
newhoha01 Total	41.71843602
goodedw01 Total	41.03012313
derripa01 Total	40.91651535

Now the top 25 in career wins above replacement level using Equation (4)

LahmanID	OVER REP
grovele01 Total	115.3920135
perryga01 Total	105.7559539
blylebe01 Total	101.009891
suttodo01 Total	93.63306417
hubbeca01 Total	90.19520829
carltst01 Total	89.70796604
seaveto01 Total	89.70686021
maddugr01 Total	89.56131161
clemero02 Total	89.37634343
vanceda01 Total	88.56012151
ryanno01 Total	86.52214465
spahnwa01 Total	85.47992869
johnto01 Total	82.28673287
jenkife01 Total	82.12462409
roberro01 Total	80.09242213
niekrph01 Total	79.31001138
derripa01 Total	76.73392609
ruffire01 Total	73.66044866
gibsobo01 Total	72.81534641
bunniji01 Total	71.8324794
kaatji01 Total	70.5664663
fellebo01 Total	70.40256863
newhoha01 Total	69.2389534
drysddo01 Total	66.32378614
maricju01 Total	65.85704968

Now over average

LahmanID	OVER AVG
grovele01 Total	74.31053574
vanceda01 Total	58.48605485
maddugr01 Total	53.03908939
clemero02 Total	52.7652212
hubbeca01 Total	52.4137194
perryga01 Total	51.61519834
blylebe01 Total	51.30619103
seaveto01 Total	40.82908244
newhoha01 Total	39.37598674
carltst01 Total	37.3709327
suttodo01 Total	36.87010861
derripa01 Total	36.42280387
brownke01 Total	35.90936237
johnto01 Total	35.62378843
roberro01 Total	34.28872213
fellebo01 Total	34.14330196
jenkife01 Total	33.45797965
bunniji01 Total	33.05841273
ryanno01 Total	33.04806687
gibsobo01 Total	32.67090196
spahnwa01 Total	30.98361758
reuscri01 Total	30.6702001
drysddo01 Total	29.98675281
johnsra05 Total	29.77289376
goodedw01 Total	28.70034528

Now the top 100 ERAs with 1000+ IP using Equation (1) with HR adjustments

LahmanID	IP	ERA
mcdowsa01 Total	2115	2.6264
koufasa01 Total	2119.67	2.73179
chancde01 Total	1949	2.78879
martipe02 Total	1316.67	2.80993
goodedw01 Total	2180.67	2.8483
malonji01 Total	1528.33	2.86968
gibsobo01 Total	3613	2.88449
maddugr01 Total	3287	2.89544
lolicmi01 Total	3410	2.92647
hughste01 Total	1217.67	2.93962
perryga01 Total	4872.67	2.95095
matlajo01 Total	1915.67	2.95332
seaveto01 Total	4399	2.98495
johnsra05 Total	2166.33	2.99725
laniema01 Total	1093	2.99897
ryanno01 Total	4812.67	3.00808
clemero02 Total	3295	3.01186
rijojo01 Total	1397.67	3.01238
carltst01 Total	4710.33	3.01387
vealebo01 Total	1690	3.02307
coopemo01 Total	1632	3.02739
blylebe01 Total	4473.33	3.0308
drysddo01 Total	3270.33	3.0367
newhoha01 Total	2687.67	3.04105
bunniji01 Total	3489.67	3.04472
siebeso01 Total	1794.67	3.04803
reuscri01 Total	3002.33	3.05467
deandi01 Total	1728.33	3.08485
peterfr01 Total	2002.33	3.08932
richaj01 Total	1328.67	3.09218
vanceda01 Total	2706.67	3.10056
otooji01 Total	1155	3.10755
maricju01 Total	3362.67	3.10822
schilcu01 Total	1348.33	3.1083
messean01 Total	1962	3.11051
singebi01 Total	1815.67	3.12043
fernasi01 Total	1331	3.12176
shortch02 Total	1829	3.12297
peterga01 Total	1974.67	3.12351
pascuca02 Total	2479.33	3.14208
smoltjo01 Total	2215.67	3.14439
reedro01 Total	1240	3.14896
garcimi01 Total	2056	3.14939
montejo01 Total	1077.33	3.15744
horlejo01 Total	1530.33	3.16142
passecl01 Total	2470.67	3.16686
meltocl01 Total	1245.67	3.1796
jenkife01 Total	4380	3.18696
downial01 Total	1691.33	3.18839
nolanga01 Total	1498	3.19436
johnske02 Total	1244.67	3.19904
sotoma01 Total	1390.67	3.19939
kaatji01 Total	3815	3.20258
hubbeca01 Total	3400.33	3.20754
handsbi01 Total	1564	3.20919
rogerst01 Total	2665.67	3.21077
culpra01 Total	1497.33	3.2151
koosmje01 Total	3596.33	3.23839
woodwi01 Total	2008.67	3.24031
wyattwh01 Total	1131.33	3.24919
mclaide01 Total	1597.33	3.24937
troutdi01 Total	2404.67	3.24955
johnto01 Total	4199.67	3.25141
brechha01 Total	1412.67	3.25282
fordwh01 Total	2812	3.25364
truckvi01 Total	2241	3.26011
laryfr01 Total	1799.67	3.26058
derripa01 Total	3628	3.26183
odelbi01 Total	1126.33	3.26415
newcodo01 Total	1706	3.26476
holtzke01 Total	2264	3.27212
chrisla01 Total	1010.67	3.27585
chandsp01 Total	1218.67	3.27874
stottme01 Total	2452.33	3.27898
ellisdo01 Total	1558	3.27929
merriji01 Total	1111	3.2811
brownke01 Total	2632.33	3.28459
suttodo01 Total	5108.67	3.2851
haefnmi01 Total	1052.33	3.28668
tiantlu01 Total	2971	3.29692
herbera01 Total	1072.67	3.29995
maglisa01 Total	1129.33	3.30058
wilsodo01 Total	1742.33	3.30254
dobsopa01 Total	1507.67	3.30482
cuellmi01 Total	2565.67	3.31044
alexape01 Total	2083	3.3112
hootobu01 Total	2122.67	3.31518
jacksla01 Total	3169.33	3.31652
leonadu02 Total	2688.67	3.32144
mcnalda01 Total	2399	3.32276
jarvipa01 Total	1083.67	3.32373
guidrro01 Total	2059.67	3.32779
mungova01 Total	1811	3.34312
bonhabi01 Total	1210.33	3.3449
saberbr01 Total	1877.67	3.34563
kralija01 Total	1023.67	3.34609
reussje01 Total	3012.67	3.35216
brilene01 Total	1405	3.35406
nuxhajo01 Total	1346.33	3.35439
candejo01 Total	1794.67	3.35628

Now the top 50 with 2000 IP

LahmanID	IP	DIPS ER	ERA
mcdowsa01 Total	2115	617.205	2.6264
koufasa01 Total	2119.67	643.386	2.73179
goodedw01 Total	2180.67	690.133	2.8483
gibsobo01 Total	3613	1157.96	2.88449
maddugr01 Total	3287	1057.48	2.89544
lolicmi01 Total	3410	1108.81	2.92647
perryga01 Total	4872.67	1597.67	2.95095
seaveto01 Total	4399	1458.98	2.98495
johnsra05 Total	2166.33	721.45	2.99725
ryanno01 Total	4812.67	1608.54	3.00808
clemero02 Total	3295	1102.68	3.01186
carltst01 Total	4710.33	1577.37	3.01387
blylebe01 Total	4473.33	1506.42	3.0308
drysddo01 Total	3270.33	1103.45	3.0367
newhoha01 Total	2687.67	908.148	3.04105
bunniji01 Total	3489.67	1180.56	3.04472
reuscri01 Total	3002.33	1019.01	3.05467
peterfr01 Total	2002.33	687.317	3.08932
vanceda01 Total	2706.67	932.464	3.10056
maricju01 Total	3362.67	1161.32	3.10822
pascuca02 Total	2479.33	865.586	3.14208
smoltjo01 Total	2215.67	774.103	3.14439
garcimi01 Total	2056	719.462	3.14939
passecl01 Total	2470.67	869.361	3.16686
jenkife01 Total	4380	1550.98	3.18696
kaatji01 Total	3815	1357.54	3.20258
hubbeca01 Total	3400.33	1211.86	3.20754
rogerst01 Total	2665.67	950.983	3.21077
koosmje01 Total	3596.33	1294.04	3.23839
woodwi01 Total	2008.67	723.19	3.24031
troutdi01 Total	2404.67	868.233	3.24955
johnto01 Total	4199.67	1517.2	3.25141
fordwh01 Total	2812	1016.58	3.25364
truckvi01 Total	2241	811.769	3.26011
derripa01 Total	3628	1314.88	3.26183
holtzke01 Total	2264	823.119	3.27212
stottme01 Total	2452.33	893.461	3.27898
brownke01 Total	2632.33	960.683	3.28459
suttodo01 Total	5108.67	1864.72	3.2851
tiantlu01 Total	2971	1088.35	3.29692
cuellmi01 Total	2565.67	943.72	3.31044
alexape01 Total	2083	766.36	3.3112
hootobu01 Total	2122.67	781.893	3.31518
jacksla01 Total	3169.33	1167.91	3.31652
leonadu02 Total	2688.67	992.249	3.32144
mcnalda01 Total	2399	885.699	3.32276
guidrro01 Total	2059.67	761.57	3.32779
reussje01 Total	3012.67	1122.1	3.35216
bluevi01 Total	2921.67	1089.57	3.35635
lonboji01 Total	2052.33	765.817	3.3583

Using Equation (4), here are the top 100 with 1000+ IP in ERA relative to the league average, with the HR adjustment.

LahmanID	IP	REL ERA-HR
vanceda01 Total	2706.67	0.665345242
grovele01 Total	3697.33	0.689323262
martipe02 Total	1316.67	0.703892751
maddugr01 Total	3287	0.745535155
clemero02 Total	3295	0.746103136
hubbeca01 Total	3400.33	0.754682436
deandi01 Total	1728.33	0.759801975
clarkwa02 Total	1387	0.763251649
newhoha01 Total	2687.67	0.767893925
allenjo02 Total	1334.67	0.771761084
laniema01 Total	1093	0.780412042
brownke01 Total	2632.33	0.7827871
johnsra05 Total	2166.33	0.786670052
goodedw01 Total	2180.67	0.788805462
garcimi01 Total	2056	0.790648133
schilcu01 Total	1348.33	0.791775942
saberbr01 Total	1877.67	0.791805304
mussimi01 Total	1922	0.793317794
reynosh01 Total	1074.33	0.801089297
gomezle01 Total	2331	0.806140307
newcodo01 Total	1706	0.810707324
meltocl01 Total	1245.67	0.811355022
alexape01 Total	2083	0.811677942
blylebe01 Total	4473.33	0.814142876
matlajo01 Total	1915.67	0.816707899
pipgrge01 Total	1132.33	0.817275243
koufasa01 Total	2119.67	0.819092285
guidrro01 Total	2059.67	0.820049692
rijojo01 Total	1397.67	0.820793282
chandsp01 Total	1218.67	0.822003531
passecl01 Total	2470.67	0.824515775
perryga01 Total	4872.67	0.825821189
troutdi01 Total	2404.67	0.825865091
brechha01 Total	1412.67	0.827089015
coopemo01 Total	1632	0.828932921
fellebo01 Total	3263.33	0.829934298
appieke01 Total	1839	0.831145417
reuscri01 Total	3002.33	0.832483115
higuete01 Total	1119.67	0.833840151
derripa01 Total	3628	0.834814662
smoltjo01 Total	2215.67	0.835193771
hoytwa01 Total	2746.33	0.835407172
jansela01 Total	1690.33	0.835759886
tewksbo01 Total	1168.67	0.837486213
laryfr01 Total	1799.67	0.837879027
mungova01 Total	1811	0.841105986
quinnja01 Total	1718.33	0.841754617
wellsda01 Total	1692.33	0.844209435
truckvi01 Total	2241	0.844978352
bunniji01 Total	3489.67	0.845047258
wyattwh01 Total	1131.33	0.84509761
pennohe01 Total	2658.67	0.84548198
maglisa01 Total	1129.33	0.845921945
drysddo01 Total	3270.33	0.848007215
maysca01 Total	1395.67	0.848448199
rowesc01 Total	1514.67	0.848693287
haddiha01 Total	1834.67	0.848736033
chancde01 Total	1949	0.848790999
seaveto01 Total	4399	0.849146705
johnssy01 Total	1071.67	0.849480648
parneme01 Total	1432.33	0.851352089
otooji01 Total	1155	0.851430313
hansoer01 Total	1213.67	0.852344705
gibsobo01 Total	3613	0.852408211
shockur01 Total	2146.67	0.853276501
roepr01 Total	1634.67	0.853339308
hughste01 Total	1217.67	0.854855458
blantcy01 Total	1069	0.855138706
leeth01 Total	1622.33	0.85515606
covelst01 Total	1861.33	0.856090043
rixeyep01 Total	2842.33	0.857128427
hutchfr01 Total	1256.33	0.857831989
leonadu02 Total	2688.67	0.858204583
johnto01 Total	4199.67	0.858590845
pascuca02 Total	2479.33	0.85919959
bridgto01 Total	2608.67	0.859982203
fordwh01 Total	2812	0.860265156
maricju01 Total	3362.67	0.860582053
donohpe01 Total	1843.67	0.8616605
roberro01 Total	4122.33	0.861984568
galehde01 Total	1140.33	0.862073094
kralija01 Total	1023.67	0.863125731
herbera01 Total	1072.67	0.863183516
bosioch01 Total	1357	0.864349666
uhlege01 Total	2657	0.865901364
peterfr01 Total	2002.33	0.86845914
malonpa02 Total	1632	0.868958873
pettian01 Total	1249	0.869759131
hardeme01 Total	2907.33	0.869826258
carltst01 Total	4710.33	0.869853175
keyji01 Total	2288.67	0.869902504
coneda01 Total	2268.67	0.870193876
sullifr01 Total	1639	0.870892801
smilejo01 Total	1411.67	0.872149374
lolicmi01 Total	3410	0.87267724
rogerst01 Total	2665.67	0.87294424
rushbo01 Total	1999.33	0.873012793
rootch01 Total	2727.33	0.874278906
wittmi01 Total	1816	0.874450669
jenkife01 Total	4380	0.874532848

Now the top 50 with 2000+ IP

LahmanID	IP	REL ERA-HR
vanceda01 Total	2706.67	0.665345242
grovele01 Total	3697.33	0.689323262
maddugr01 Total	3287	0.745535155
clemero02 Total	3295	0.746103136
hubbeca01 Total	3400.33	0.754682436
newhoha01 Total	2687.67	0.767893925
brownke01 Total	2632.33	0.7827871
johnsra05 Total	2166.33	0.786670052
goodedw01 Total	2180.67	0.788805462
garcimi01 Total	2056	0.790648133
gomezle01 Total	2331	0.806140307
alexape01 Total	2083	0.811677942
blylebe01 Total	4473.33	0.814142876
koufasa01 Total	2119.67	0.819092285
guidrro01 Total	2059.67	0.820049692
passecl01 Total	2470.67	0.824515775
perryga01 Total	4872.67	0.825821189
troutdi01 Total	2404.67	0.825865091
fellebo01 Total	3263.33	0.829934298
reuscri01 Total	3002.33	0.832483115
derripa01 Total	3628	0.834814662
smoltjo01 Total	2215.67	0.835193771
hoytwa01 Total	2746.33	0.835407172
truckvi01 Total	2241	0.844978352
bunniji01 Total	3489.67	0.845047258
pennohe01 Total	2658.67	0.84548198
drysddo01 Total	3270.33	0.848007215
seaveto01 Total	4399	0.849146705
gibsobo01 Total	3613	0.852408211
shockur01 Total	2146.67	0.853276501
rixeyep01 Total	2842.33	0.857128427
leonadu02 Total	2688.67	0.858204583
johnto01 Total	4199.67	0.858590845
pascuca02 Total	2479.33	0.85919959
bridgto01 Total	2608.67	0.859982203
fordwh01 Total	2812	0.860265156
maricju01 Total	3362.67	0.860582053
roberro01 Total	4122.33	0.861984568
uhlege01 Total	2657	0.865901364
peterfr01 Total	2002.33	0.86845914
hardeme01 Total	2907.33	0.869826258
carltst01 Total	4710.33	0.869853175
keyji01 Total	2288.67	0.869902504
coneda01 Total	2268.67	0.870193876
lolicmi01 Total	3410	0.87267724
rogerst01 Total	2665.67	0.87294424
rootch01 Total	2727.33	0.874278906
jenkife01 Total	4380	0.874532848
eckerde01 Total	2431.33	0.874964986
mcdowsa01 Total	2115	0.87531437

Then I ran a regression in which the dependent variable was how many standard deviations below the mean a pitcher’s ERA was (I used the simple average of the ERA in each league/year from the pitchers with 150+IP and the unweighted standard deviation of those pitchers). The independent variables were HRs, BBs and Ks, all based on how many standard deviations from the mean they were. The regression equation was

ERA = .44*HR + .4*BB - .3*K

The intercept was less than .0001. The r-squared was .422 and the standard erro was .75.

The top 25 were

LahmanID	Year	Pred
martipe02	1999	-3.35437
martipe02	2000	-2.65545
maddugr01	1995	-2.16896
johnsra05	1995	-2.16674
clemero02	1997	-2.0648
vanceda01	1925	-2.05565
brechha01	1948	-2.0336
maddugr01	1997	-1.94831
grovele01	1930	-1.9401
reuscri01	1987	-1.93368
brownke01	1998	-1.88591
clemero02	1998	-1.84268
johnsra05	1998	-1.80771
eichhma01	1986	-1.78689
clemero02	1990	-1.77346
clemero02	1988	-1.74888
hubbeca01	1933	-1.7473
goodedw01	1984	-1.74292
maddugr01	1994	-1.73444
guidrro01	1978	-1.71607
vanceda01	1924	-1.70731
blackew01	1947	-1.70027
fellebo01	1940	-1.68727
blylebe01	1973	-1.66407
johnsra05	1999	-1.66122

Then I adjusted HRs for park effects and the top 25 were

LahmanID	Pred-HR	Year
martipe02	-3.30068	1999
martipe02	-2.47364	2000
maddugr01	-2.25652	1995
johnsra05	-2.20692	1995
grovele01	-2.03997	1930
vanceda01	-2.0269	1925
clemero02	-2.02065	1997
brechha01	-1.98894	1948
reuscri01	-1.95306	1987
hubbeca01	-1.93537	1933
maddugr01	-1.90693	1997
brownke01	-1.86134	1998
clemero02	-1.82948	1998
clemero02	-1.80514	1988
eichhma01	-1.804	1986
clemero02	-1.79949	1990
johnsra05	-1.79878	1998
guidrro01	-1.78004	1978
vanceda01	-1.76689	1930
goodedw01	-1.73141	1984
maddugr01	-1.72226	1994
blackew01	-1.67828	1947
maddugr01	-1.67622	1996
smoltjo01	-1.66071	1996
grovele01	-1.66	1932

Now using a 3 year average for the HR park adjustment

LahmanID	IP	Pred-HR3 YR	Year
martipe02	213.333	-3.297010678	1999
martipe02	217	-2.512702199	2000
maddugr01	209.667	-2.210504246	1995
johnsra05	214.333	-2.195381821	1995
clemero02	264	-2.053278414	1997
vanceda01	265.333	-2.045449511	1925
grovele01	291	-2.023691593	1930
brechha01	233.333	-1.985608034	1948
maddugr01	232.667	-1.950290751	1997
reuscri01	177	-1.932435075	1987
hubbeca01	308.667	-1.893580383	1933
brownke01	257	-1.874683653	1998
clemero02	234.667	-1.803828792	1998
clemero02	228.333	-1.793966522	1990
eichhma01	157	-1.793838578	1986
blackew01	273	-1.752915338	1947
goodedw01	218	-1.749419529	1984
maddugr01	202	-1.747868822	1994
clemero02	264	-1.745560937	1988
johnsra05	160	-1.743740794	1998
guidrro01	273.667	-1.718647294	1978
vanceda01	258.667	-1.703527009	1930
blylebe01	325	-1.693781338	1973
grovele01	288.667	-1.689469304	1931
maddugr01	245	-1.665155087	1996

The top 25 in wins over replacement, without HR adjustmets, were

LahmanID	Year	OVER REP
hubbeca01	1933	14.68417663
carltst01	1972	14.23979242
gibsobo01	1968	13.9996682
koufasa01	1963	13.55498617
blylebe01	1973	13.47036652
vanceda01	1924	12.77123083
martipe02	1999	12.56087388
koufasa01	1965	12.41876665
covelst01	1920	12.29804956
fellebo01	1946	12.27988974
fellebo01	1940	12.25059985
newhoha01	1945	12.09889273
richaj01	1979	12.06179474
bluevi01	1971	12.06168714
vanceda01	1925	11.89731774
grovele01	1930	11.87291911
blackew01	1947	11.85154206
koufasa01	1966	11.72249652
clemero02	1997	11.63060231
gibsobo01	1970	11.59787636
seaveto01	1971	11.58899201
luquedo01	1923	11.5613571
guidrro01	1978	11.5234248
coopewi01	1920	11.38720226
vanceda01	1928	11.32906205

Over average were

LahmanID	Year	OVER AVG
hubbeca01	1933	11.25454329
gibsobo01	1968	10.61447931
carltst01	1972	10.39164798
martipe02	1999	10.19050721
koufasa01	1963	10.09943062
blylebe01	1973	9.859255414
vanceda01	1924	9.345308612
vanceda01	1925	8.949173292
blackew01	1947	8.818208729
richaj01	1979	8.813650294
covelst01	1920	8.798049564
clemero02	1997	8.697268979
fellebo01	1940	8.691344292
koufasa01	1965	8.689133316
brechha01	1948	8.672575864
grovele01	1930	8.639585776
newhoha01	1945	8.617414956
bluevi01	1971	8.595020475
guidrro01	1978	8.482680352
seaveto01	1971	8.407514236
martipe02	2000	8.332588663
gibsobo01	1970	8.33120969
goodedw01	1985	8.221027245
vanceda01	1928	8.214250936
fellebo01	1946	8.153967516

Now the top 25 in wins over replacement with HR adjustments

LahmanID	Year	OVER REP
hubbeca01	1933	15.90999296
carltst01	1972	13.97092998
blylebe01	1973	13.42011804
gibsobo01	1968	13.1574499
perryga01	1972	12.90660814
newhoha01	1946	12.68016
bluevi01	1971	12.61718453
newhoha01	1945	12.50377247
martipe02	1999	12.42823186
grovele01	1930	12.35679723
koufasa01	1963	12.31735549
vanceda01	1924	12.26619184
guidrro01	1978	11.86511079
covelst01	1920	11.86054618
vanceda01	1925	11.76399494
blackew01	1947	11.72893074
seaveto01	1971	11.51998125
clemero02	1997	11.43130152
fellebo01	1946	11.25241173
clemero02	1988	11.17538817
gibsobo01	1970	11.17181325
jenkife01	1970	11.10374857
goodedw01	1985	11.08789313
brechha01	1948	11.06839614
blylebe01	1974	11.04687575

Over average

LahmanID	Year	OVER AVG
hubbeca01	1933	12.4803596
carltst01	1972	10.1227855
martipe02	1999	10.0578652
blylebe01	1973	9.80900693
gibsobo01	1968	9.77226101
newhoha01	1946	9.42830445
bluevi01	1971	9.15051786
grovele01	1930	9.12346389
perryga01	1972	9.09919702
newhoha01	1945	9.02229469
koufasa01	1963	8.86179994
vanceda01	1924	8.84026961
guidrro01	1978	8.82436635
vanceda01	1925	8.8158505
blackew01	1947	8.69559741
clemero02	1997	8.49796819
brechha01	1948	8.47580726
maddugr01	1995	8.40823856
covelst01	1920	8.36054618
seaveto01	1971	8.33850347
clemero02	1988	8.24205484
goodedw01	1985	8.01381535
blylebe01	1974	7.92465352
gibsobo01	1970	7.90514659
matlajo01	1974	7.89192235

Now the top 25 in wins over replacement with HR adjustments using a 3 year average

LahmanID	Year	OVER REP
hubbeca01	1933	15.64344718
carltst01	1972	15.23488913
blylebe01	1973	13.66151926
gibsobo01	1968	13.57539719
newhoha01	1945	12.734846
martipe02	1999	12.41903075
vanceda01	1924	12.40547534
perryga01	1972	12.3387127
grovele01	1930	12.27808302
newhoha01	1946	12.2266529
bluevi01	1971	12.2121073
blackew01	1947	12.14416325
koufasa01	1963	12.13689794
vanceda01	1925	11.85005433
fellebo01	1946	11.65981782
clemero02	1997	11.57865539
seaveto01	1971	11.54314164
guidrro01	1978	11.53720169
mcdowsa01	1969	11.52212278
fellebo01	1940	11.44564536
vanceda01	1928	11.43236328
blylebe01	1974	11.42374061
alexape01	1920	11.29973265
jenkife01	1971	11.29325397
covelst01	1920	11.21361861

Now over average

LahmanID	Year	OVER AVG
hubbeca01	1933	12.21381385
carltst01	1972	11.38674469
gibsobo01	1968	10.19020831
blylebe01	1973	10.05040815
martipe02	1999	10.04866408
newhoha01	1945	9.253368219
blackew01	1947	9.110829914
grovele01	1930	9.044749682
vanceda01	1924	8.979553116
newhoha01	1946	8.974797348
vanceda01	1925	8.901909886
bluevi01	1971	8.745440631
koufasa01	1963	8.681342385
clemero02	1997	8.645322053
perryga01	1972	8.531301593
guidrro01	1978	8.496457243
brechha01	1948	8.461055741
seaveto01	1971	8.361663858
mcdowsa01	1969	8.355456111
vanceda01	1928	8.317552168
blylebe01	1974	8.301518386
maddugr01	1995	8.23786331
goodedw01	1985	8.119562985
maddugr01	1997	8.013682733
matlajo01	1974	7.953571698

Now the top 50 in career wins above replacement using the Standard Deviation method, including park adjustments for HRs

LahmanID	OVER REP
perryga01 Total	115.046063
grovele01 Total	111.619502
blylebe01 Total	110.59042
maddugr01 Total	101.175626
clemero02 Total	98.7050527
seaveto01 Total	95.988102
hubbeca01 Total	92.9441907
suttodo01 Total	91.9131044
carltst01 Total	91.7485566
johnto01 Total	86.2732467
vanceda01 Total	86.0369081
gibsobo01 Total	83.9030059
ryanno01 Total	81.6947593
jenkife01 Total	77.8945504
niekrph01 Total	74.1168996
bunniji01 Total	73.9888232
spahnwa01 Total	73.0635158
newhoha01 Total	72.4375508
derripa01 Total	71.2939607
reuscri01 Total	70.9609676
kaatji01 Total	69.4723429
drysddo01 Total	68.3963313
brownke01 Total	67.0897748
roberro01 Total	65.6539947
maricju01 Total	65.3622498
lolicmi01 Total	64.9944808
koosmje01 Total	64.4722594
ruffire01 Total	63.0219481
fellebo01 Total	62.5449911
goodedw01 Total	60.317841
koufasa01 Total	56.1407731
jacksla01 Total	55.408124
johnsra05 Total	55.2631408
rixeyep01 Total	54.9860734
lyonste01 Total	54.7302092
fordwh01 Total	54.6832748
hoytwa01 Total	53.7949162
palmeji01 Total	53.2256286
leonadu02 Total	53.0450766
garcimi01 Total	52.7993944
pennohe01 Total	52.7250468
passecl01 Total	52.4348279
simmocu01 Total	51.7536922
rogerst01 Total	51.104925
frienbo01 Total	50.8854323
hardeme01 Total	50.7394445
grimebu01 Total	50.655399
pascuca02 Total	50.0636093
troutdi01 Total	49.9411406
piercbi02 Total	49.6254573

Now above average

LahmanID	OVER AVG
grovele01 Total	70.53802389
maddugr01 Total	64.65340344
clemero02 Total	62.0939305
perryga01 Total	60.90530691
blylebe01 Total	60.88672018
vanceda01 Total	55.96284143
hubbeca01 Total	55.16270179
seaveto01 Total	47.11032424
gibsobo01 Total	43.75856149
newhoha01 Total	42.5745841
johnto01 Total	39.61030221
carltst01 Total	39.41152327
brownke01 Total	37.84163031
reuscri01 Total	37.60170096
goodedw01 Total	36.08819651
bunniji01 Total	35.21475651
suttodo01 Total	35.15014887
koufasa01 Total	32.58891755
drysddo01 Total	32.05929801
johnsra05 Total	31.19277416
derripa01 Total	30.98283852
garcimi01 Total	29.95493888
martipe02 Total	29.74802405
jenkife01 Total	29.22790595
ryanno01 Total	28.22068153

Now the top 100 in career SDs below the mean for pitchers with 1000+ IP

LahmanID	IP	SD
martipe02 Total	1316.67	-1.5139
vanceda01 Total	2706.67	-1.2584
grovele01 Total	3697.33	-1.2113
clemero02 Total	3295	-1.1798
maddugr01 Total	3287	-1.1387
hubbeca01 Total	3400.33	-0.9416
johnsra05 Total	2166.33	-0.9164
clarkwa02 Total	1387	-0.9137
brownke01 Total	2632.33	-0.9087
goodedw01 Total	2180.67	-0.8905
deandi01 Total	1728.33	-0.8724
mussimi01 Total	1922	-0.866
schilcu01 Total	1348.33	-0.8478
garcimi01 Total	2056	-0.8435
saberbr01 Total	1877.67	-0.8306
newhoha01 Total	2687.67	-0.8223
koufasa01 Total	2119.67	-0.8083
matlajo01 Total	1915.67	-0.8052
allenjo02 Total	1334.67	-0.803
reynosh01 Total	1074.33	-0.7719
blylebe01 Total	4473.33	-0.7548
rijojo01 Total	1397.67	-0.7304
guidrro01 Total	2059.67	-0.7304
laniema01 Total	1093	-0.7148
reuscri01 Total	3002.33	-0.7084
alexape01 Total	2083	-0.6977
higuete01 Total	1119.67	-0.6944
perryga01 Total	4872.67	-0.6758
newcodo01 Total	1706	-0.661
shockur01 Total	2146.67	-0.6516
smoltjo01 Total	2215.67	-0.6505
meltocl01 Total	1245.67	-0.6501
gomezle01 Total	2331	-0.6495
appieke01 Total	1839	-0.637
chandsp01 Total	1218.67	-0.6341
otooji01 Total	1155	-0.6317
gibsobo01 Total	3613	-0.6238
quinnja01 Total	1718.33	-0.6086
chancde01 Total	1949	-0.5984
mcdowsa01 Total	2115	-0.5823
laryfr01 Total	1799.67	-0.5813
passecl01 Total	2470.67	-0.5744
seaveto01 Total	4399	-0.5644
bunniji01 Total	3489.67	-0.5617
maglisa01 Total	1129.33	-0.5597
troutdi01 Total	2404.67	-0.5595
pennohe01 Total	2658.67	-0.5563
parneme01 Total	1432.33	-0.5562
drysddo01 Total	3270.33	-0.5557
johnto01 Total	4199.67	-0.5541
johnssy01 Total	1071.67	-0.5484
covelst01 Total	1861.33	-0.5456
jansela01 Total	1690.33	-0.5393
hoytwa01 Total	2746.33	-0.538
wellsda01 Total	1692.33	-0.5321
hutchfr01 Total	1256.33	-0.532
coopemo01 Total	1632	-0.5292
leeth01 Total	1622.33	-0.5187
rowesc01 Total	1514.67	-0.5175
hughste01 Total	1217.67	-0.5168
leonadu02 Total	2688.67	-0.5165
pascuca02 Total	2479.33	-0.5056
brechha01 Total	1412.67	-0.5021
wyattwh01 Total	1131.33	-0.4952
wittmi01 Total	1816	-0.4948
maysca01 Total	1395.67	-0.4911
derripa01 Total	3628	-0.49
fellebo01 Total	3263.33	-0.4883
pettian01 Total	1249	-0.4877
truckvi01 Total	2241	-0.4875
fordwh01 Total	2812	-0.4757
pipgrge01 Total	1132.33	-0.4741
mungova01 Total	1811	-0.4703
hansoer01 Total	1213.67	-0.4611
rixeyep01 Total	2842.33	-0.4579
odelbi01 Total	1126.33	-0.4556
rogerst01 Total	2665.67	-0.4552
herbera01 Total	1072.67	-0.45
bosioch01 Total	1357	-0.4486
carltst01 Total	4710.33	-0.4465
shawkbo01 Total	1464.67	-0.4441
faberre01 Total	2606.33	-0.4338
keyji01 Total	2288.67	-0.4302
hardeme01 Total	2907.33	-0.4293
haddiha01 Total	1834.67	-0.4292
simmocu01 Total	2836.67	-0.4277
lolicmi01 Total	3410	-0.4264
montejo01 Total	1077.33	-0.4263
donohpe01 Total	1843.67	-0.4196
maricju01 Total	3362.67	-0.4179
peterfr01 Total	2002.33	-0.4155
coneda01 Total	2268.67	-0.4145
antonjo02 Total	1663.67	-0.4132
chrisla01 Total	1010.67	-0.4104
langsma01 Total	2329.33	-0.4076
sullifr01 Total	1639	-0.4065
blantcy01 Total	1069	-0.4006
galehde01 Total	1140.33	-0.3983
koosmje01 Total	3596.33	-0.398
rushbo01 Total	1999.33	-0.3946

Now the top 50 with 2000+ IP

LahmanID	IP	SD
vanceda01 Total	2706.67	-1.2584
grovele01 Total	3697.33	-1.2113
clemero02 Total	3295	-1.1798
maddugr01 Total	3287	-1.1387
hubbeca01 Total	3400.33	-0.9416
johnsra05 Total	2166.33	-0.9164
brownke01 Total	2632.33	-0.9087
goodedw01 Total	2180.67	-0.8905
garcimi01 Total	2056	-0.8435
newhoha01 Total	2687.67	-0.8223
koufasa01 Total	2119.67	-0.8083
blylebe01 Total	4473.33	-0.7548
guidrro01 Total	2059.67	-0.7304
reuscri01 Total	3002.33	-0.7084
alexape01 Total	2083	-0.6977
perryga01 Total	4872.67	-0.6758
shockur01 Total	2146.67	-0.6516
smoltjo01 Total	2215.67	-0.6505
gomezle01 Total	2331	-0.6495
gibsobo01 Total	3613	-0.6238
chancde01 Total	1949	-0.5984
mcdowsa01 Total	2115	-0.5823
passecl01 Total	2470.67	-0.5744
seaveto01 Total	4399	-0.5644
bunniji01 Total	3489.67	-0.5617
troutdi01 Total	2404.67	-0.5595
pennohe01 Total	2658.67	-0.5563
drysddo01 Total	3270.33	-0.5557
johnto01 Total	4199.67	-0.5541
hoytwa01 Total	2746.33	-0.538
leonadu02 Total	2688.67	-0.5165
pascuca02 Total	2479.33	-0.5056
derripa01 Total	3628	-0.49
fellebo01 Total	3263.33	-0.4883
truckvi01 Total	2241	-0.4875
fordwh01 Total	2812	-0.4757
rixeyep01 Total	2842.33	-0.4579
rogerst01 Total	2665.67	-0.4552
carltst01 Total	4710.33	-0.4465
faberre01 Total	2606.33	-0.4338
keyji01 Total	2288.67	-0.4302
hardeme01 Total	2907.33	-0.4293
simmocu01 Total	2836.67	-0.4277
lolicmi01 Total	3410	-0.4264
maricju01 Total	3362.67	-0.4179
peterfr01 Total	2002.33	-0.4155
coneda01 Total	2268.67	-0.4145
langsma01 Total	2329.33	-0.4076
koosmje01 Total	3596.33	-0.398
rushbo01 Total	1999.33	-0.3946

Another look at career data

The first thing I did here was to get all the pitchers from 1920-2004 who had 2000+ IP. Then I found their HRs, BBs, and Ks relative to the league average using the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia. I adjusted these numbers to give them HRs, BBs and Ks per 9 IP.

The averages over the time period were

HR = .774

BB = 3.34

K = 4.97

If a pitcher had 10% more Ks than average, he got 5.467 Ks. Once that was done for all pitchers, that data got plugged into

(1) DIPS ERA = Constant + 1.4*HR + .33*BB - .22*SO

(2) Constant = League ERA - (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP for the league and year in question.

I computed the constant over the time period and it was 2.85. Here are the top 100. In these cases, HRs are not adjusted for park effects.

Pitcher	DIPS
Dazzy Vance	2.372503
Pedro Martinez	2.559491
Lefty Grove	2.704256
Randy Johnson	2.859197
Roger Clemens	2.916254
Curt Schilling	3.042948
Greg Maddux	3.074931
Kevin Brown	3.108282
Bob Feller	3.141746
Bret Saberhagen	3.142198
Mike Mussina	3.154697
Hal Newhouser	3.172099
Sandy Koufax	3.178361
Paul Derringer	3.196414
Mike Garcia	3.219892
Ron Guidry	3.231293
Lefty Gomez	3.232594
Hoyt Wilhelm	3.251882
Nolan Ryan	3.264489
John Smoltz	3.264687
Pete Donohue	3.264993
Claude Passeau	3.289062
Jon Matlack	3.298568
Eppa Rixey	3.299449
Dutch Leonard	3.306653
Bert Blyleven	3.307012
Carl Hubbell	3.325814
Jack Quinn	3.333881
Don Drysdale	3.352197
Schoolboy Rowe	3.359094
Tommy Bridges	3.363097
Dean Chance	3.363795
Harvey Haddix	3.372087
Red Faber	3.375456
Van Lingle Mungo	3.378551
Dwight Gooden	3.38162
Dennis Eckersley	3.383096
Dizzy Trout	3.387514
Tom Seaver	3.402292
Bob Gibson	3.403582
David Cone	3.414485
Dolf Luque	3.420248
Whitey Ford	3.420432
Gaylord Perry	3.422983
Bob Rush	3.42478
Herb Pennock	3.42487
Kevin Appier	3.459189
Rick Reuschel	3.463194
Steve Rogers	3.467348
Jim Bunning	3.470949
George Uhle	3.476348
David Wells	3.48954
Bobo Newsom	3.505367
Mark Gubicza	3.507259
Sam McDowell	3.515019
Firpo Marberry	3.516307
Charlie Root	3.520584
Red Ruffing	3.523379
Lindy McDaniel	3.528059
Camilo Pascual	3.528149
Billy Pierce	3.53139
Brad Radke	3.531825
Juan Marichal	3.536564
Don Sutton	3.536792
Grover C Alexander	3.538225
Tommy John	3.543483
Bill Singer	3.544459
Robin Roberts	3.544576
Jerry Koosman	3.547825
Virgil Trucks	3.552197
John Burkett	3.557494
Allie Reynolds	3.562682
Mickey Lolich	3.56306
Warren Spahn	3.563972
Jimmy Key	3.568894
Bob Friend	3.569193
Steve Carlton	3.571106
Ron Reed	3.5715
Johnny Vander Meer	3.576364
Thornton Lee	3.576814
Denny Galehouse	3.57936
Orel Hershiser	3.590508
Dennis Leonard	3.592665
Chuck Finley	3.595976
Mel Harder	3.596744
Larry French	3.599819
Waite Hoyt	3.60317
Fritz Peterson	3.604184
Mike Witt	3.604903
Don Newcombe	3.607447
Kevin Tapani	3.608754
Burleigh Grimes	3.60946
Gary Peters	3.611783
Rudy May	3.620926
John Candelaria	3.626864
Greg Swindell	3.637315
Andy Messersmith	3.638328
Ferguson Jenkins	3.6384
Joe Horlen	3.648014
Jim Kaat	3.648685

Then I plugged each guy’s relative HRs, BBs, and Ks into

(4) RELERA = .656 + .236*REHR + .278*RELBB - .1956*RELSO.

This equation is above in an earlier section. Here are the top 100.

Pitcher	Pred-RELREG
Dazzy Vance	0.676316971
Pedro Martinez	0.688549185
Lefty Grove	0.720637026
Roger Clemens	0.764264611
Greg Maddux	0.767991775
Randy Johnson	0.770862296
Curt Schilling	0.777879641
Bret Saberhagen	0.782754376
Kevin Brown	0.784444731
Mike Mussina	0.793935659
Paul Derringer	0.802526767
Pete Donohue	0.807254618
Eppa Rixey	0.812630642
Mike Garcia	0.812741576
Dutch Leonard	0.815503592
Jack Quinn	0.821955624
Ron Guidry	0.823738785
Hal Newhouser	0.825824197
Claude Passeau	0.825885489
Bob Feller	0.827541498
Jon Matlack	0.830513087
Hoyt Wilhelm	0.831407625
John Smoltz	0.831533247
Schoolboy Rowe	0.83467765
Carl Hubbell	0.837643467
Bert Blyleven	0.837677922
Sandy Koufax	0.83849334
Red Faber	0.842622465
Don Drysdale	0.843460244
Lefty Gomez	0.844359333
Herb Pennock	0.846328159
Dennis Eckersley	0.849404515
Dean Chance	0.851177995
Harvey Haddix	0.851850677
Gaylord Perry	0.855908377
Dizzy Trout	0.856268296
David Wells	0.856971253
Rick Reuschel	0.857456047
Bob Rush	0.859129652
Brad Radke	0.859658681
Dwight Gooden	0.859663407
Whitey Ford	0.860022739
Grover C Alexander	0.860880524
Tom Seaver	0.860907762
Dolf Luque	0.861597224
Steve Rogers	0.864997803
Robin Roberts	0.86724241
Bob Gibson	0.868533736
Tommy John	0.86896673
George Uhle	0.870825994
Kevin Appier	0.871556333
Tommy Bridges	0.871584081
Juan Marichal	0.872062896
Fritz Peterson	0.872129551
Jim Bunning	0.872726127
Bob Friend	0.874901594
Mark Gubicza	0.875967773
David Cone	0.87633534
Jimmy Key	0.877170636
John Burkett	0.877600986
Nolan Ryan	0.877833043
Warren Spahn	0.879809156
Lindy McDaniel	0.880125468
Don Sutton	0.880556173
Ron Reed	0.88216063
Firpo Marberry	0.883455743
Kevin Tapani	0.885083907
Mel Harder	0.886424672
Billy Pierce	0.888303387
Don Newcombe	0.888351434
Van Lingle Mungo	0.888453961
Red Ruffing	0.888688198
Jerry Koosman	0.889184934
Waite Hoyt	0.889411284
Thornton Lee	0.889969091
Charlie Root	0.890483002
Orel Hershiser	0.890824909
Denny Galehouse	0.892798977
Jim Kaat	0.893031895
Larry French	0.893294161
Camilo Pascual	0.893353147
Joe Horlen	0.893648512
Greg Swindell	0.894281216
Bill Singer	0.894886141
Dennis Leonard	0.895458469
Mickey Lolich	0.896680725
John Candelaria	0.897050539
Ken Raffensberger	0.89735481
Larry Jackson	0.898515958
Frank Lary	0.898689509
Virgil Trucks	0.899603517
Bobo Newsom	0.900022433
Mike Witt	0.901912809
Ferguson Jenkins	0.902616274
Gary Peters	0.90279807
Wilbur Wood	0.904404444
Red Lucas	0.905021224
Steve Carlton	0.905976386
Burleigh Grimes	0.906141587
Charlie Leibrandt	0.906446272

Then I ran another regression in which a pitcher’s career ERA (relative to the league average) was the dependent variable and HRs, BBs, and Ks (relative to the league average) are the independent variables. The regression equation was

RELERA = .728 + .228*RELHR + .247*RELBB - .229*RELSO

The r-squared was .587 and the standard error was .056.

Then plugging each guy’s data into the formula, the top 100 were

Pitcher	Pred-REG
Dazzy Vance	0.643264
Pedro Martinez	0.679418
Lefty Grove	0.71057
Randy Johnson	0.746906
Roger Clemens	0.756355
Curt Schilling	0.779177
Greg Maddux	0.78484
Kevin Brown	0.794259
Bret Saberhagen	0.798099
Mike Mussina	0.802058
Bob Feller	0.807086
Paul Derringer	0.811578
Hal Newhouser	0.812352
Sandy Koufax	0.814878
Mike Garcia	0.818546
Ron Guidry	0.820731
Pete Donohue	0.825705
Lefty Gomez	0.82596
Hoyt Wilhelm	0.827894
John Smoltz	0.829216
Claude Passeau	0.832962
Eppa Rixey	0.833673
Dutch Leonard	0.83383
Jon Matlack	0.834727
Bert Blyleven	0.836587
Carl Hubbell	0.838902
Nolan Ryan	0.839148
Jack Quinn	0.839923
Schoolboy Rowe	0.845442
Don Drysdale	0.846202
Harvey Haddix	0.85028
Dennis Eckersley	0.850827
Red Faber	0.851409
Dean Chance	0.851802
Tommy Bridges	0.852943
Dwight Gooden	0.855192
Dizzy Trout	0.856293
Tom Seaver	0.857777
Herb Pennock	0.859471
Van Lingle Mungo	0.860624
Gaylord Perry	0.860855
Bob Gibson	0.860968
Whitey Ford	0.862331
Dolf Luque	0.862778
Bob Rush	0.862984
David Cone	0.863855
Rick Reuschel	0.868953
Kevin Appier	0.871246
Jim Bunning	0.87129
Steve Rogers	0.87184
David Wells	0.871866
George Uhle	0.87355
Brad Radke	0.879579
Grover C Alexander	0.880857
Mark Gubicza	0.881299
Firpo Marberry	0.88258
Juan Marichal	0.882593
Robin Roberts	0.882921
Charlie Root	0.883556
Bobo Newsom	0.884212
Lindy McDaniel	0.884276
Red Ruffing	0.884284
Don Sutton	0.884433
Billy Pierce	0.885593
Tommy John	0.885818
Camilo Pascual	0.886573
John Burkett	0.888638
Jerry Koosman	0.889073
Warren Spahn	0.890319
Jimmy Key	0.890349
Bob Friend	0.890735
Bill Singer	0.890767
Sam McDowell	0.891235
Virgil Trucks	0.891409
Ron Reed	0.89156
Mickey Lolich	0.891906
Thornton Lee	0.895009
Fritz Peterson	0.895374
Denny Galehouse	0.895823
Steve Carlton	0.895971
Allie Reynolds	0.89722
Dennis Leonard	0.897276
Don Newcombe	0.897533
Orel Hershiser	0.897827
Kevin Tapani	0.897961
Mel Harder	0.898102
Waite Hoyt	0.89899
Larry French	0.899023
Mike Witt	0.901983
Chuck Finley	0.902362
John Candelaria	0.902457
Gary Peters	0.903657
Greg Swindell	0.903902
Burleigh Grimes	0.904072
Johnny Vander Meer	0.904142
Ferguson Jenkins	0.90469
Rudy May	0.906586
Jim Kaat	0.906847
Joe Horlen	0.908261
Frank Lary	0.910096