I looked at all pitchers who had at least 150 IP from 1920-2000.
(1) DIPS ERA = Constant + 1.4*HR + .33*BB - .22*SO
(2) Constant = League ERA - (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP for the league and year in question. From
http://mb7.scout.com/fbaseballfrm8.showMessage?topicID=1060.topic
Strategy and Sabermetrics. Posted by PitchingWins.
The best 25 seasons by this method are
|
LahmanID |
Year |
DIPS |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
1.468835 |
|
goodedw01 |
1984 |
1.727534 |
|
tiantlu01 |
1968 |
1.908663 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
1.90991 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
1.934264 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
1.959322 |
|
johnsra05 |
1998 |
1.962719 |
|
chancde01 |
1968 |
2.01378 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
2.036904 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
2.047756 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1968 |
2.052816 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
2.069366 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
2.081573 |
|
siebeso01 |
1965 |
2.119666 |
|
johnsra05 |
1995 |
2.129544 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
2.129888 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
2.138823 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
2.151403 |
|
gullibi01 |
1981 |
2.15264 |
|
scottmi03 |
1986 |
2.153301 |
|
martipe02 |
2000 |
2.157238 |
|
clemero02 |
1990 |
2.162582 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
2.183184 |
|
richaj01 |
1979 |
2.185583 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
2.205397 |
If HRs are park adjusted (divided HRs by the park factor provided to me by Ron Selter, then used that value in the above formula-For example, if the factor was 120, I divided by 110 since a pitcher only pitches half his games at home).
|
LahmanID |
Year |
DIPS-HR |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
1.515058 |
|
goodedw01 |
1984 |
1.735791 |
|
tiantlu01 |
1968 |
1.86449 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
1.910105 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
1.949191 |
|
johnsra05 |
1998 |
1.97182 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
1.993378 |
|
chancde01 |
1968 |
1.997993 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1968 |
2.018349 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
2.044905 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
2.059276 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
2.069777 |
|
sutclri01 |
1984 |
2.091717 |
|
siebeso01 |
1965 |
2.096862 |
|
johnsra05 |
1995 |
2.099166 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
2.106241 |
|
clemero02 |
1990 |
2.140718 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
2.155977 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
2.156752 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
2.176439 |
|
gullibi01 |
1981 |
2.18386 |
|
clemero02 |
1988 |
2.18846 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
2.1888 |
|
maddugr01 |
1995 |
2.192309 |
|
chandsp01 |
1943 |
2.195147 |
I also caclulated a 3 year average for HR park effects and then recalculated the DIPS ERA. Here are the top 25
|
LahmanID |
Year |
DIPS-HR |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
1.518215 |
|
goodedw01 |
1984 |
1.722868 |
|
tiantlu01 |
1968 |
1.875058 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
1.945923 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
1.95534 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
1.964161 |
|
chancde01 |
1968 |
1.988885 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1968 |
2.026595 |
|
johnsra05 |
1998 |
2.027895 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
2.04222 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
2.063134 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
2.080971 |
|
siebeso01 |
1965 |
2.089506 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
2.093655 |
|
johnsra05 |
1995 |
2.107891 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
2.112031 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
2.113616 |
|
sutclri01 |
1984 |
2.142243 |
|
clemero02 |
1990 |
2.14536 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
2.16284 |
|
gullibi01 |
1981 |
2.170262 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
2.194914 |
|
chandsp01 |
1943 |
2.200026 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
2.203409 |
|
maddugr01 |
1995 |
2.231753 |
The leaders in value based on the above formulas. IP are divided by 9 to get games. That gets multiplied by .400 and .500 to get the number of wins by a replacement pitcher and an average pitcher. Then the Pythagorean winning percentage is calculated for each pitcher, assuming they allow an average number of runs (4, which is close to the historical average-this is the right way to do it since all of these seasons are adjusted to the league and yearly conditions through the constant term) and and give up their DIPS ERA. That gets multiplied by the number of games to get Pythagorean wins. Then the wins by a replacement pitcher and an average pitcher gets subtracted from Pythagorean wins to get each pitcher’s value. Here are the top 25 over replacement:
|
LahmanID |
Year |
Value
over Rep |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
15.00873388 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
14.5032789 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
14.31783273 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
14.25658384 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
13.8955398 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
13.23628528 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
13.14225534 |
|
chancde01 |
1968 |
12.90619545 |
|
koufasa01 |
1966 |
12.88992676 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
12.75839066 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
12.65320012 |
|
mclaide01 |
1968 |
12.62775984 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
12.53772556 |
|
alexape01 |
1920 |
12.42509725 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
12.33033375 |
|
richaj01 |
1979 |
12.0210835 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
11.95921044 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
11.95626 |
|
tiantlu01 |
1968 |
11.89880982 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
11.89361602 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1968 |
11.70235167 |
|
jenkife01 |
1971 |
11.69424681 |
|
lolicmi01 |
1971 |
11.68271621 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
11.6797677 |
|
woodwi01 |
1971 |
11.64025623 |
Now, over the average
|
LahmanID |
Year |
Value
over AVG |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
10.88281166 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
10.86227718 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
10.77364557 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
10.51035091 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
10.4084394 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
9.675588671 |
|
chancde01 |
1968 |
9.661751001 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
9.506535101 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
9.42887417 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
9.35624778 |
|
koufasa01 |
1966 |
9.301037874 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
9.297000415 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
9.042089013 |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
9.035356383 |
|
tiantlu01 |
1968 |
9.028443157 |
|
mclaide01 |
1968 |
8.894426505 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
8.819538242 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
8.792543772 |
|
richaj01 |
1979 |
8.77293906 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1968 |
8.713462779 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
8.526626665 |
|
scottmi03 |
1986 |
8.42266615 |
|
alexape01 |
1920 |
8.388063914 |
|
goodedw01 |
1984 |
8.303338617 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
8.198289927 |
Now the value over replacement and average with HRs adjusted for park factors:
|
Year |
LahmanID |
OVER REP |
|
1946 |
fellebo01 |
14.4600062 |
|
1972 |
perryga01 |
14.268621 |
|
1972 |
carltst01 |
14.1372959 |
|
1968 |
mclaide01 |
13.7524277 |
|
1968 |
gibsobo01 |
13.5766106 |
|
1963 |
koufasa01 |
13.4935882 |
|
1971 |
bluevi01 |
13.478401 |
|
1946 |
newhoha01 |
13.4728085 |
|
1968 |
chancde01 |
12.9881941 |
|
1965 |
koufasa01 |
12.6409844 |
|
1973 |
blylebe01 |
12.6164597 |
|
1971 |
seaveto01 |
12.4968439 |
|
1933 |
hubbeca01 |
12.4108195 |
|
1965 |
mcdowsa01 |
12.3792608 |
|
1920 |
alexape01 |
12.3597412 |
|
1971 |
jenkife01 |
12.34649 |
|
1966 |
koufasa01 |
12.2159219 |
|
1972 |
lolicmi01 |
12.1969486 |
|
1968 |
tiantlu01 |
12.0988896 |
|
1971 |
lolicmi01 |
12.0643535 |
|
1968 |
mcdowsa01 |
11.8677282 |
|
1945 |
newhoha01 |
11.8364237 |
|
1985 |
goodedw01 |
11.7713331 |
|
1978 |
niekrph01 |
11.7496946 |
|
1969 |
mcdowsa01 |
11.7030334 |
|
Year |
LahmanID |
OVER AVG |
|
1972 |
perryga01 |
10.4612099 |
|
1946 |
fellebo01 |
10.3340839 |
|
1972 |
carltst01 |
10.2891515 |
|
1946 |
newhoha01 |
10.2209529 |
|
1968 |
gibsobo01 |
10.1914217 |
|
1963 |
koufasa01 |
10.0380326 |
|
1968 |
mclaide01 |
10.0190943 |
|
1971 |
bluevi01 |
10.0117344 |
|
1968 |
chancde01 |
9.74374965 |
|
1965 |
mcdowsa01 |
9.34592745 |
|
1971 |
seaveto01 |
9.31536611 |
|
1968 |
tiantlu01 |
9.22852292 |
|
1973 |
blylebe01 |
9.00534856 |
|
1933 |
hubbeca01 |
8.98118617 |
|
1965 |
koufasa01 |
8.91135107 |
|
1968 |
mcdowsa01 |
8.87883932 |
|
1999 |
martipe02 |
8.87789337 |
|
1971 |
jenkife01 |
8.73537892 |
|
1985 |
goodedw01 |
8.69725527 |
|
1966 |
koufasa01 |
8.62703297 |
|
1972 |
lolicmi01 |
8.55991527 |
|
1969 |
mcdowsa01 |
8.53636676 |
|
1978 |
guidrro01 |
8.35853742 |
|
1945 |
newhoha01 |
8.35494591 |
|
1920 |
alexape01 |
8.3227079 |
Now the values if the three year average is used for HR park effects. First the value over replacement.
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER REP |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
14.6994452 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
14.6786405 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
14.0333038 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
13.7345079 |
|
mclaide01 |
1968 |
13.4566688 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
13.372906 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
13.239241 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
13.2333771 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
13.1952705 |
|
chancde01 |
1968 |
13.0354422 |
|
jenkife01 |
1971 |
12.859714 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
12.7930915 |
|
lolicmi01 |
1971 |
12.7122114 |
|
alexape01 |
1920 |
12.5271807 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
12.5105657 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
12.3950312 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
12.345854 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
12.309843 |
|
tiantlu01 |
1968 |
12.0511408 |
|
koufasa01 |
1966 |
11.9740345 |
|
woodwi01 |
1971 |
11.9578451 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
11.9259326 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
11.8337475 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1968 |
11.8282101 |
|
niekrph01 |
1978 |
11.5448284 |
Now, the value over average with the three year average for HR park effects.
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER AVG |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
10.8513008 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
10.5527183 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
10.349319 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
10.2258927 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
9.98738548 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
9.91735048 |
|
chancde01 |
1968 |
9.79099775 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
9.76671046 |
|
mclaide01 |
1968 |
9.72333548 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
9.46563717 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
9.36169785 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
9.32908789 |
|
jenkife01 |
1971 |
9.24860287 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
9.1819804 |
|
tiantlu01 |
1968 |
9.18077417 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
9.17918735 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
8.88020965 |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
8.86704781 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1968 |
8.83932126 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
8.75966969 |
|
lolicmi01 |
1971 |
8.53443364 |
|
alexape01 |
1920 |
8.4901474 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
8.44445478 |
|
koufasa01 |
1966 |
8.38514563 |
|
goodedw01 |
1984 |
8.32066473 |
Then I ran a regression in which a pitcher’s ERA minus the league average ERA was the dependent variable and his HRs, BBs, and Ks (all minus the league average) were the independent variables. The regression equation was
(3) ERADIFF = -.10 + 1.398*HRDIFF - .168*KDIFF + .329*BBDIFF
The r-squared was .445 and the standard error was .521
The pitchers who were predicted by this equation to be the most under the league aveage were
|
LahmanID |
DIFF |
Year |
|
martipe02 |
-3.09035 |
1999 |
|
martipe02 |
-2.52031 |
2000 |
|
johnsra05 |
-2.31383 |
1995 |
|
clemero02 |
-2.1885 |
1997 |
|
johnsra05 |
-2.04103 |
1998 |
|
brownke01 |
-2.02658 |
1998 |
|
maddugr01 |
-1.91459 |
1995 |
|
maddugr01 |
-1.90839 |
1994 |
|
johnsra05 |
-1.90135 |
2000 |
|
maddugr01 |
-1.84205 |
1997 |
|
eichhma01 |
-1.78088 |
1986 |
|
clemero02 |
-1.74567 |
1998 |
|
martipe02 |
-1.68795 |
1997 |
|
clemero02 |
-1.68607 |
1990 |
|
reuscri01 |
-1.67647 |
1987 |
|
johnsra05 |
-1.65905 |
1999 |
|
goodedw01 |
-1.63777 |
1984 |
|
brechha01 |
-1.62735 |
1948 |
|
brownke01 |
-1.61454 |
1996 |
|
maddugr01 |
-1.59239 |
1996 |
|
pettian01 |
-1.58477 |
1997 |
|
clemero02 |
-1.57739 |
1988 |
|
maddugr01 |
-1.55464 |
2000 |
|
clemero02 |
-1.53242 |
1987 |
|
brownke01 |
-1.52625 |
2000 |
Then I adjusted HRs for park effects and the pitchers the most below the league average were
|
LahmanID |
Year |
Pred |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
-3.04423 |
|
martipe02 |
2000 |
-2.37313 |
|
johnsra05 |
1995 |
-2.34414 |
|
clemero02 |
1997 |
-2.14869 |
|
johnsra05 |
1998 |
-2.03194 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
-2.00159 |
|
maddugr01 |
1995 |
-1.98948 |
|
maddugr01 |
1994 |
-1.89936 |
|
johnsra05 |
2000 |
-1.83366 |
|
maddugr01 |
1997 |
-1.80824 |
|
eichhma01 |
1986 |
-1.72137 |
|
clemero02 |
1990 |
-1.70789 |
|
reuscri01 |
1987 |
-1.69617 |
|
clemero02 |
1998 |
-1.69092 |
|
maddugr01 |
1996 |
-1.639 |
|
martipe02 |
1997 |
-1.63474 |
|
goodedw01 |
1984 |
-1.62953 |
|
clemero02 |
1988 |
-1.62322 |
|
johnsra05 |
1999 |
-1.59363 |
|
brechha01 |
1948 |
-1.59143 |
|
grovele01 |
1930 |
-1.57737 |
|
pettian01 |
1997 |
-1.57538 |
|
smoltjo01 |
1996 |
-1.57294 |
|
brownke01 |
1996 |
-1.56922 |
|
johnsra05 |
1997 |
-1.55096 |
Now, if a guy pitches in a high ERA season, it makes it easier to go far below the league ERA. So I calculated the win value over the replacement pitcher and average pitcher here, with and without HRs being adjusted for park factors. A pitcher got a predicted ERA based on how much they differed from the leauge average. That got used in the Pythagorean formula, as described above. First the value without HR adjustment
|
LahmanID |
OVER REP |
Year |
|
koufasa01 |
11.80012456 |
1965 |
|
fellebo01 |
11.79423457 |
1946 |
|
blylebe01 |
11.74082376 |
1973 |
|
carltst01 |
11.70095302 |
1972 |
|
koufasa01 |
11.43812655 |
1963 |
|
martipe02 |
11.42972416 |
1999 |
|
clemero02 |
11.33542675 |
1997 |
|
brownke01 |
11.02411794 |
1998 |
|
koufasa01 |
10.84460828 |
1966 |
|
bluevi01 |
10.63813565 |
1971 |
|
newhoha01 |
10.33995909 |
1946 |
|
richaj01 |
10.27881245 |
1979 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
10.23264092 |
1969 |
|
seaveto01 |
10.21293881 |
1971 |
|
goodedw01 |
10.17891245 |
1985 |
|
gibsobo01 |
10.14915607 |
1970 |
|
gibsobo01 |
10.07752187 |
1968 |
|
gibsobo01 |
9.955099659 |
1969 |
|
scottmi03 |
9.934808754 |
1986 |
|
guidrro01 |
9.873182031 |
1978 |
|
chancde01 |
9.846271891 |
1964 |
|
martipe02 |
9.833110674 |
2000 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
9.794380864 |
1965 |
|
clemero02 |
9.765470454 |
1988 |
|
woodwi01 |
9.706612082 |
1971 |
|
LahmanID |
OVER AVG |
Year |
|
martipe02 |
9.05935749 |
1999 |
|
clemero02 |
8.40209342 |
1997 |
|
brownke01 |
8.168562382 |
1998 |
|
blylebe01 |
8.129712649 |
1973 |
|
koufasa01 |
8.070491228 |
1965 |
|
koufasa01 |
7.982570993 |
1963 |
|
carltst01 |
7.852808576 |
1972 |
|
fellebo01 |
7.668312344 |
1946 |
|
martipe02 |
7.421999563 |
2000 |
|
koufasa01 |
7.255719392 |
1966 |
|
bluevi01 |
7.171468988 |
1971 |
|
goodedw01 |
7.104834673 |
1985 |
|
newhoha01 |
7.088103531 |
1946 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
7.065974258 |
1969 |
|
seaveto01 |
7.031461034 |
1971 |
|
richaj01 |
7.030668002 |
1979 |
|
johnsra05 |
6.995060613 |
1995 |
|
gibsobo01 |
6.882489403 |
1970 |
|
scottmi03 |
6.875553199 |
1986 |
|
guidrro01 |
6.832437586 |
1978 |
|
clemero02 |
6.832137121 |
1988 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
6.761047531 |
1965 |
|
chancde01 |
6.753683002 |
1964 |
|
maddugr01 |
6.7175698 |
1997 |
|
gibsobo01 |
6.69233298 |
1968 |
Now the values with the HR adjustment
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER REP |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
11.70256092 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
11.56445967 |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
11.30116959 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
11.18346355 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
11.16704497 |
|
clemero02 |
1997 |
11.14902633 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
11.02459727 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
10.91548829 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
10.56149662 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
10.42702178 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
10.1656077 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
10.13025138 |
|
koufasa01 |
1966 |
10.1107353 |
|
jenkife01 |
1970 |
10.06568414 |
|
jenkife01 |
1971 |
10.06332212 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
10.04264685 |
|
clemero02 |
1988 |
9.984642909 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
9.951478116 |
|
niekrph01 |
1978 |
9.931108344 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
9.893415675 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
9.851746563 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1970 |
9.828951928 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
9.735919535 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1969 |
9.69779467 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1968 |
9.650209987 |
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER AVG |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
8.93080292 |
|
clemero02 |
1997 |
8.21569299 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
8.09144981 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
8.05993274 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
7.91518941 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
7.71631522 |
|
bluevi01 |
1971 |
7.55793061 |
|
johnsra05 |
1995 |
7.09318887 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
7.08950694 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
7.05754132 |
|
clemero02 |
1988 |
7.05130958 |
|
seaveto01 |
1971 |
6.98412993 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
6.97146623 |
|
goodedw01 |
1985 |
6.96856908 |
|
martipe02 |
2000 |
6.95998961 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1965 |
6.81841323 |
|
mcdowsa01 |
1969 |
6.78481145 |
|
perryga01 |
1972 |
6.75408551 |
|
maddugr01 |
1995 |
6.62203217 |
|
jenkife01 |
1970 |
6.58790636 |
|
maddugr01 |
1997 |
6.58267537 |
|
gibsobo01 |
1970 |
6.56228526 |
|
clemero02 |
1990 |
6.5573807 |
|
goodedw01 |
1984 |
6.5411674 |
|
koufasa01 |
1966 |
6.52184641 |
Then I ran a regression in which a pitcher’s ERA relative to the league average was the dependent variable and his HRs, BBs, and Ks (all relative to the league average) were the independent variables. The regression equation was
(4) RELERA = .656 + .236*REHR + .278*RELBB - .1956*RELSO
The r-squared was .421 and the standard error was .135
Then I plugged the data for each pitcher into the above formual. Here are the top 25 in RELERA
|
LahmanID |
Pred |
Year |
|
martipe02 |
0.43480939 |
1999 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.47040295 |
1925 |
|
martipe02 |
0.525032427 |
2000 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.538979572 |
1924 |
|
grovele01 |
0.543423273 |
1930 |
|
johnsra05 |
0.567754344 |
1995 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.574332511 |
1928 |
|
brechha01 |
0.590017041 |
1948 |
|
maddugr01 |
0.594263364 |
1995 |
|
grovele01 |
0.599711662 |
1927 |
|
clemero02 |
0.603198483 |
1997 |
|
brownke01 |
0.603896307 |
1998 |
|
maddugr01 |
0.603973692 |
1994 |
|
maddugr01 |
0.608603497 |
1997 |
|
blantcy01 |
0.608823103 |
1935 |
|
hubbeca01 |
0.613965028 |
1933 |
|
grovele01 |
0.61499381 |
1926 |
|
allenjo02 |
0.615813551 |
1936 |
|
braxtga01 |
0.61618469 |
1927 |
|
adamsba01 |
0.616364775 |
1922 |
|
clemero02 |
0.62636164 |
1990 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.627736496 |
1930 |
|
johnsra05 |
0.62814774 |
1998 |
|
goodedw01 |
0.62821268 |
1984 |
|
luquedo01 |
0.628537826 |
1923 |
I adjusted each pitcher’s HRs for park effects and then plugged the data into the formula, the top 25 were
|
LahmanID |
Pred-HR |
Year |
|
martipe02 |
0.438826 |
1999 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.469198 |
1925 |
|
martipe02 |
0.521009 |
2000 |
|
grovele01 |
0.547239 |
1930 |
|
maddugr01 |
0.57703 |
1995 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.583102 |
1928 |
|
braxtga01 |
0.585036 |
1927 |
|
clemero02 |
0.590669 |
1997 |
|
brechha01 |
0.595487 |
1948 |
|
johnsra05 |
0.596057 |
1995 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.59757 |
1924 |
|
vanceda01 |
0.601476 |
1930 |
|
blantcy01 |
0.602471 |
1935 |
|
grovele01 |
0.603906 |
1927 |
|
maddugr01 |
0.604937 |
1997 |
|
allenjo02 |
0.608589 |
1936 |
|
brownke01 |
0.609251 |
1998 |
|
grovele01 |
0.615871 |
1932 |
|
maddugr01 |
0.623192 |
1994 |
|
adamsba01 |
0.623551 |
1922 |
|
johnsra05 |
0.625693 |
1998 |
|
goodedw01 |
0.628732 |
1984 |
|
gullibi01 |
0.629633 |
1981 |
|
hubbeca01 |
0.638055 |
1933 |
|
johnsra05 |
0.638854 |
2000 |
The win value
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER REP |
|
vanceda01 |
1924 |
12.84357908 |
|
vanceda01 |
1925 |
12.34723466 |
|
grovele01 |
1930 |
12.0285383 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
11.86223512 |
|
luquedo01 |
1923 |
11.33494206 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
11.18887597 |
|
vanceda01 |
1928 |
10.96289163 |
|
fellebo01 |
1940 |
10.66800224 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
10.66434942 |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
10.45334108 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
10.21789774 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
10.11516429 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
10.04197235 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
10.0364446 |
|
grovele01 |
1927 |
9.778643027 |
|
grovele01 |
1931 |
9.776033525 |
|
clemero02 |
1997 |
9.774433317 |
|
faberre01 |
1922 |
9.750227556 |
|
grovele01 |
1929 |
9.630831794 |
|
donohpe01 |
1925 |
9.592266757 |
|
grovele01 |
1932 |
9.563299404 |
|
rixeyep01 |
1923 |
9.554212152 |
|
koufasa01 |
1963 |
9.553396494 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
9.502339308 |
|
roberro01 |
1953 |
9.496274754 |
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER AVG |
|
vanceda01 |
1924 |
9.4176569 |
|
vanceda01 |
1925 |
9.3990902 |
|
grovele01 |
1930 |
8.795205 |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
8.0829744 |
|
vanceda01 |
1928 |
7.8480805 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
7.7592426 |
|
luquedo01 |
1923 |
7.7571643 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
7.7363129 |
|
fellebo01 |
1940 |
7.1087467 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
7.0532383 |
|
grovele01 |
1927 |
6.8638319 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
6.8633087 |
|
martipe02 |
2000 |
6.8453499 |
|
clemero02 |
1997 |
6.8411 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
6.73642 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
6.6467838 |
|
grovele01 |
1929 |
6.5715762 |
|
grovele01 |
1931 |
6.5686224 |
|
blantcy01 |
1935 |
6.4875422 |
|
grovele01 |
1926 |
6.4664817 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
6.3515167 |
|
grovele01 |
1932 |
6.322555 |
|
koufasa01 |
1965 |
6.3068113 |
|
gomezle01 |
1937 |
6.3008851 |
|
brechha01 |
1948 |
6.2681973 |
The win value with HR adjustment
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER REP |
|
grovele01 |
1930 |
12.43246432 |
|
vanceda01 |
1924 |
12.36012222 |
|
vanceda01 |
1925 |
12.22793184 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
12.00295878 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
11.18232483 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
11.03423 |
|
luquedo01 |
1923 |
10.84215077 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
10.63395814 |
|
vanceda01 |
1928 |
10.62952527 |
|
grovele01 |
1932 |
10.53264399 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
10.516926 |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
10.35632119 |
|
grovele01 |
1929 |
10.16055517 |
|
grovele01 |
1926 |
9.96421725 |
|
carltst01 |
1972 |
9.935442997 |
|
grovele01 |
1931 |
9.929943497 |
|
grovele01 |
1927 |
9.865400025 |
|
fellebo01 |
1940 |
9.769763845 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1936 |
9.695261661 |
|
clemero02 |
1997 |
9.642992795 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
9.610137563 |
|
vanceda01 |
1930 |
9.597871688 |
|
roberro01 |
1953 |
9.540441639 |
|
newhoha01 |
1944 |
9.490117679 |
|
mungova01 |
1936 |
9.43728698 |
|
LahmanID |
Year |
OVER AVG |
|
vanceda01 |
1925 |
9.2797874 |
|
grovele01 |
1930 |
9.19913098 |
|
vanceda01 |
1924 |
8.9342 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1933 |
8.57332545 |
|
martipe02 |
1999 |
7.98595453 |
|
newhoha01 |
1946 |
7.78237444 |
|
vanceda01 |
1928 |
7.51471416 |
|
grovele01 |
1932 |
7.29189955 |
|
luquedo01 |
1923 |
7.26437299 |
|
grovele01 |
1929 |
7.10129961 |
|
grovele01 |
1926 |
7.09755058 |
|
fellebo01 |
1946 |
7.05640261 |
|
newhoha01 |
1945 |
7.03544823 |
|
blylebe01 |
1973 |
7.02284703 |
|
grovele01 |
1927 |
6.95058891 |
|
vanceda01 |
1930 |
6.72379391 |
|
grovele01 |
1931 |
6.72253239 |
|
clemero02 |
1997 |
6.70965946 |
|
guidrro01 |
1978 |
6.56939312 |
|
brownke01 |
1998 |
6.56873348 |
|
martipe02 |
2000 |
6.52350629 |
|
blantcy01 |
1935 |
6.3990246 |
|
gomezle01 |
1937 |
6.33473756 |
|
hubbeca01 |
1936 |
6.31748388 |
|
grovele01 |
1928 |
6.30343554 |
Now the top 25 in career wins above replacement level using Equation (1) with park adjustments for HRs.
|
LahmanID |
OVER REP |
|
perryga01 Total |
134.8210117 |
|
ryanno01 Total |
130.1410162 |
|
carltst01 Total |
126.0350086 |
|
seaveto01 Total |
119.9717665 |
|
blylebe01 Total |
119.518118 |
|
suttodo01 Total |
115.0825686 |
|
jenkife01 Total |
105.1758182 |
|
gibsobo01 Total |
104.5010582 |
|
niekrph01 Total |
101.9524381 |
|
lolicmi01 Total |
95.84384907 |
|
johnto01 Total |
95.23393048 |
|
maddugr01 Total |
94.41481446 |
|
bunniji01 Total |
90.97957578 |
|
kaatji01 Total |
90.12162779 |
|
clemero02 Total |
89.29489174 |
|
drysddo01 Total |
85.63130028 |
|
spahnwa01 Total |
85.3964287 |
|
maricju01 Total |
85.02873448 |
|
koosmje01 Total |
82.3383086 |
|
derripa01 Total |
81.22763757 |
|
hubbeca01 Total |
79.75220371 |
|
reuscri01 Total |
77.67393236 |
|
grovele01 Total |
76.55978487 |
|
roberro01 Total |
76.52688924 |
|
palmeji01 Total |
72.75113681 |
Now the top 25 over average
|
LahmanID |
OVER AVG |
|
perryga01 Total |
80.68025619 |
|
ryanno01 Total |
76.6669384 |
|
carltst01 Total |
73.69797523 |
|
seaveto01 Total |
71.0939887 |
|
blylebe01 Total |
69.81441797 |
|
gibsobo01 Total |
64.35661376 |
|
suttodo01 Total |
58.31961304 |
|
lolicmi01 Total |
57.95493796 |
|
maddugr01 Total |
57.89259224 |
|
jenkife01 Total |
56.50917371 |
|
clemero02 Total |
52.68376952 |
|
bunniji01 Total |
52.20550911 |
|
drysddo01 Total |
49.29426694 |
|
johnto01 Total |
48.57098604 |
|
kaatji01 Total |
47.73275001 |
|
maricju01 Total |
47.66577893 |
|
mcdowsa01 Total |
47.34219959 |
|
niekrph01 Total |
46.54873806 |
|
reuscri01 Total |
44.31466569 |
|
koufasa01 Total |
43.83505335 |
|
koosmje01 Total |
42.37904193 |
|
hubbeca01 Total |
41.97071482 |
|
newhoha01 Total |
41.71843602 |
|
goodedw01 Total |
41.03012313 |
|
derripa01 Total |
40.91651535 |
Now the top 25 in career wins above replacement level using Equation (4)
|
LahmanID |
OVER REP |
|
grovele01 Total |
115.3920135 |
|
perryga01 Total |
105.7559539 |
|
blylebe01 Total |
101.009891 |
|
suttodo01 Total |
93.63306417 |
|
hubbeca01 Total |
90.19520829 |
|
carltst01 Total |
89.70796604 |
|
seaveto01 Total |
89.70686021 |
|
maddugr01 Total |
89.56131161 |
|
clemero02 Total |
89.37634343 |
|
vanceda01 Total |
88.56012151 |
|
ryanno01 Total |
86.52214465 |
|
spahnwa01 Total |
85.47992869 |
|
johnto01 Total |
82.28673287 |
|
jenkife01 Total |
82.12462409 |
|
roberro01 Total |
80.09242213 |
|
niekrph01 Total |
79.31001138 |
|
derripa01 Total |
76.73392609 |
|
ruffire01 Total |
73.66044866 |
|
gibsobo01 Total |
72.81534641 |
|
bunniji01 Total |
71.8324794 |
|
kaatji01 Total |
70.5664663 |
|
fellebo01 Total |
70.40256863 |
|
newhoha01 Total |
69.2389534 |
|
drysddo01 Total |
66.32378614 |
|
maricju01 Total |
65.85704968 |
Now over average
|
LahmanID |
OVER AVG |
|
grovele01
Total |
74.31053574 |
|
vanceda01
Total |
58.48605485 |
|
maddugr01
Total |
53.03908939 |
|
clemero02
Total |
52.7652212 |
|
hubbeca01
Total |
52.4137194 |
|
perryga01
Total |
51.61519834 |
|
blylebe01
Total |
51.30619103 |
|
seaveto01
Total |
40.82908244 |
|
newhoha01
Total |
39.37598674 |
|
carltst01
Total |
37.3709327 |
|
suttodo01
Total |
36.87010861 |
|
derripa01
Total |
36.42280387 |
|
brownke01
Total |
35.90936237 |
|
johnto01
Total |
35.62378843 |
|
roberro01
Total |
34.28872213 |
|
fellebo01
Total |
34.14330196 |
|
jenkife01
Total |
33.45797965 |
|
bunniji01
Total |
33.05841273 |
|
ryanno01
Total |
33.04806687 |
|
gibsobo01
Total |
32.67090196 |
|
spahnwa01
Total |
30.98361758 |
|
reuscri01
Total |
30.6702001 |
|
drysddo01
Total |
29.98675281 |
|
johnsra05
Total |
29.77289376 |
|
goodedw01
Total |
28.70034528 |
Now the top 100 ERAs with 1000+ IP using Equation (1) with HR adjustments
|
LahmanID |
IP |
ERA |
|
mcdowsa01 Total |
2115 |
2.6264 |
|
koufasa01 Total |
2119.67 |
2.73179 |
|
chancde01 Total |
1949 |
2.78879 |
|
martipe02 Total |
1316.67 |
2.80993 |
|
goodedw01 Total |
2180.67 |
2.8483 |
|
malonji01 Total |
1528.33 |
2.86968 |
|
gibsobo01 Total |
3613 |
2.88449 |
|
maddugr01 Total |
3287 |
2.89544 |
|
lolicmi01 Total |
3410 |
2.92647 |
|
hughste01 Total |
1217.67 |
2.93962 |
|
perryga01 Total |
4872.67 |
2.95095 |
|
matlajo01 Total |
1915.67 |
2.95332 |
|
seaveto01 Total |
4399 |
2.98495 |
|
johnsra05 Total |
2166.33 |
2.99725 |
|
laniema01 Total |
1093 |
2.99897 |
|
ryanno01 Total |
4812.67 |
3.00808 |
|
clemero02 Total |
3295 |
3.01186 |
|
rijojo01 Total |
1397.67 |
3.01238 |
|
carltst01 Total |
4710.33 |
3.01387 |
|
vealebo01 Total |
1690 |
3.02307 |
|
coopemo01 Total |
1632 |
3.02739 |
|
blylebe01 Total |
4473.33 |
3.0308 |
|
drysddo01 Total |
3270.33 |
3.0367 |
|
newhoha01 Total |
2687.67 |
3.04105 |
|
bunniji01 Total |
3489.67 |
3.04472 |
|
siebeso01 Total |
1794.67 |
3.04803 |
|
reuscri01 Total |
3002.33 |
3.05467 |
|
deandi01 Total |
1728.33 |
3.08485 |
|
peterfr01 Total |
2002.33 |
3.08932 |
|
richaj01 Total |
1328.67 |
3.09218 |
|
vanceda01 Total |
2706.67 |
3.10056 |
|
otooji01 Total |
1155 |
3.10755 |
|
maricju01 Total |
3362.67 |
3.10822 |
|
schilcu01 Total |
1348.33 |
3.1083 |
|
messean01 Total |
1962 |
3.11051 |
|
singebi01 Total |
1815.67 |
3.12043 |
|
fernasi01 Total |
1331 |
3.12176 |
|
shortch02 Total |
1829 |
3.12297 |
|
peterga01 Total |
1974.67 |
3.12351 |
|
pascuca02 Total |
2479.33 |
3.14208 |
|
smoltjo01 Total |
2215.67 |
3.14439 |
|
reedro01 Total |
1240 |
3.14896 |
|
garcimi01 Total |
2056 |
3.14939 |
|
montejo01 Total |
1077.33 |
3.15744 |
|
horlejo01 Total |
1530.33 |
3.16142 |
|
passecl01 Total |
2470.67 |
3.16686 |
|
meltocl01 Total |
1245.67 |
3.1796 |
|
jenkife01 Total |
4380 |
3.18696 |
|
downial01 Total |
1691.33 |
3.18839 |
|
nolanga01 Total |
1498 |
3.19436 |
|
johnske02 Total |
1244.67 |
3.19904 |
|
sotoma01 Total |
1390.67 |
3.19939 |
|
kaatji01 Total |
3815 |
3.20258 |
|
hubbeca01 Total |
3400.33 |
3.20754 |
|
handsbi01 Total |
1564 |
3.20919 |
|
rogerst01 Total |
2665.67 |
3.21077 |
|
culpra01 Total |
1497.33 |
3.2151 |
|
koosmje01 Total |
3596.33 |
3.23839 |
|
woodwi01 Total |
2008.67 |
3.24031 |
|
wyattwh01 Total |
1131.33 |
3.24919 |
|
mclaide01 Total |
1597.33 |
3.24937 |
|
troutdi01 Total |
2404.67 |
3.24955 |
|
johnto01 Total |
4199.67 |
3.25141 |
|
brechha01 Total |
1412.67 |
3.25282 |
|
fordwh01 Total |
2812 |
3.25364 |
|
truckvi01 Total |
2241 |
3.26011 |
|
laryfr01 Total |
1799.67 |
3.26058 |
|
derripa01 Total |
3628 |
3.26183 |
|
odelbi01 Total |
1126.33 |
3.26415 |
|
newcodo01 Total |
1706 |
3.26476 |
|
holtzke01 Total |
2264 |
3.27212 |
|
chrisla01 Total |
1010.67 |
3.27585 |
|
chandsp01 Total |
1218.67 |
3.27874 |
|
stottme01 Total |
2452.33 |
3.27898 |
|
ellisdo01 Total |
1558 |
3.27929 |
|
merriji01 Total |
1111 |
3.2811 |
|
brownke01 Total |
2632.33 |
3.28459 |
|
suttodo01 Total |
5108.67 |
3.2851 |
|
haefnmi01 Total |
1052.33 |
3.28668 |
|
tiantlu01 Total |
2971 |
3.29692 |
|
herbera01 Total |
1072.67 |
3.29995 |
|
maglisa01 Total |
1129.33 |
3.30058 |
|
wilsodo01 Total |
1742.33 |
3.30254 |
|
dobsopa01 Total |
1507.67 |
3.30482 |
|
cuellmi01 Total |
2565.67 |
3.31044 |
|
alexape01 Total |
2083 |
3.3112 |
|
hootobu01 Total |
2122.67 |
3.31518 |
|
jacksla01 Total |
3169.33 |
3.31652 |
|
leonadu02 Total |
2688.67 |
3.32144 |
|
mcnalda01 Total |
2399 |
3.32276 |
|
jarvipa01 Total |
1083.67 |
3.32373 |
|
guidrro01 Total |
2059.67 |
3.32779 |
|
mungova01 Total |
1811 |
3.34312 |
|
bonhabi01 Total |
1210.33 |
3.3449 |
|
saberbr01 Total |
1877.67 |
3.34563 |
|
kralija01 Total |
1023.67 |
3.34609 |
|
reussje01 Total |
3012.67 |
3.35216 |
|
brilene01 Total |
1405 |
3.35406 |
|
nuxhajo01 Total |
1346.33 |
3.35439 |
|
candejo01 Total |
1794.67 |
3.35628 |
Now the top 50 with 2000 IP
|
LahmanID |
IP |
DIPS ER |
ERA |
|
mcdowsa01 Total |
2115 |
617.205 |
2.6264 |
|
koufasa01 Total |
2119.67 |
643.386 |
2.73179 |
|
goodedw01 Total |
2180.67 |
690.133 |
2.8483 |
|
gibsobo01 Total |
3613 |
1157.96 |
2.88449 |
|
maddugr01 Total |
3287 |
1057.48 |
2.89544 |
|
lolicmi01 Total |
3410 |
1108.81 |
2.92647 |
|
perryga01 Total |
4872.67 |
1597.67 |
2.95095 |
|
seaveto01 Total |
4399 |
1458.98 |
2.98495 |
|
johnsra05 Total |
2166.33 |
721.45 |
2.99725 |
|
ryanno01 Total |
4812.67 |
1608.54 |
3.00808 |
|
clemero02 Total |
3295 |
1102.68 |
3.01186 |
|
carltst01 Total |
4710.33 |
1577.37 |
3.01387 |
|
blylebe01 Total |
4473.33 |
1506.42 |
3.0308 |
|
drysddo01 Total |
3270.33 |
1103.45 |
3.0367 |
|
newhoha01 Total |
2687.67 |
908.148 |
3.04105 |
|
bunniji01 Total |
3489.67 |
1180.56 |
3.04472 |
|
reuscri01 Total |
3002.33 |
1019.01 |
3.05467 |
|
peterfr01 Total |
2002.33 |
687.317 |
3.08932 |
|
vanceda01 Total |
2706.67 |
932.464 |
3.10056 |
|
maricju01 Total |
3362.67 |
1161.32 |
3.10822 |
|
pascuca02 Total |
2479.33 |
865.586 |
3.14208 |
|
smoltjo01 Total |
2215.67 |
774.103 |
3.14439 |
|
garcimi01 Total |
2056 |
719.462 |
3.14939 |
|
passecl01 Total |
2470.67 |
869.361 |
3.16686 |
|
jenkife01 Total |
4380 |
1550.98 |
3.18696 |
|
kaatji01 Total |
3815 |
1357.54 |
3.20258 |
|
hubbeca01 Total |
3400.33 |
1211.86 |
3.20754 |
|
rogerst01 Total |
2665.67 |
950.983 |
3.21077 |
|
koosmje01 Total |
3596.33 |
1294.04 |
3.23839 |
|
woodwi01 Total |
2008.67 |
723.19 |
3.24031 |
|
troutdi01 Total |
2404.67 |
868.233 |
3.24955 |
|
johnto01 Total |
4199.67 |
1517.2 |
3.25141 |
|
fordwh01 Total |
2812 |
1016.58 |
3.25364 |
|
truckvi01 Total |
2241 |
811.769 |
3.26011 |
|
derripa01 Total |
3628 |
1314.88 |
3.26183 |
|
holtzke01 Total |
2264 |
823.119 |
3.27212 |
|
stottme01 Total |
2452.33 |
893.461 |
3.27898 |
|
brownke01 Total |
2632.33 |
960.683 |
3.28459 |
|
suttodo01 Total |
5108.67 |
1864.72 |
3.2851 |
|
tiantlu01 Total |
2971 |
1088.35 |
3.29692 |
|
cuellmi01 Total |
2565.67 |
943.72 |
3.31044 |
|
alexape01 Total |
2083 |
766.36 |
3.3112 |
|
hootobu01 Total |
2122.67 |
781.893 |
3.31518 |
|
jacksla01 Total |
3169.33 |
1167.91 |
3.31652 |
|
leonadu02 Total |
2688.67 |
992.249 |
3.32144 |
|
mcnalda01 Total |
2399 |
885.699 |
3.32276 |
|
guidrro01 Total |
2059.67 |
761.57 |