Has Anyone Aged as Well As Barry Bonds?

 

by Cyril Morong

 

cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net


Click here to see my sabermetric blog called Cybermetrics

 

 

Just about every fan knows that Barry Bonds has set some great records recently. And many fans are aware that he did it at a relatively old age for baseball players. So Bonds has, of course, performed better from age 36 to age 39 than he did when he was younger. How unusual is this and has anyone else shown a similar kind of improvement?

 

To look into this, I consulted the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia. I found all the players who had at least 1000 or more plate appearances from ages 36-39 and also 4000 or more plate appearances before age 36 (there were 176 such players). Then I looked to see how each player’s stats at the older age compared to their stats at the younger age. Stats looked at were slugging percentage (SLG), isolated power (ISO), homerun percentage (HRs per 100 at-bats or HR%), and offensive winning percentage. The last stat is one invented by Bill James. From the Lee Sinins Sabermetric Encyclopedia “It's a Bill James stat that projects what a team's winning percentage would be if each offensive player was cloned to that player and the team had an average pitching staff.” So it is adjusted for the league average of a player’s era (and is park adjusted as well). Also, the first three stats, SLG, ISO and HR% were rated relative to the league average for each player’s era.

 

Let’s start with slugging percentage (SLG), which is total bases divided by at-bats. Each player’s SLG relative to the league average was found for before age 36 and from 36-39. SLG relative to the league average is referred to as “Rate” in the tables used. For example, in the table below, Bonds has a Rate of 139 under the age of 36. That means his SLG was 39% above the league average. The table below shows the top 25 players in terms of their improvement in Rate or SLG relative to the league average. From 36-39, Bonds had a Rate of 187. The Ratio column is the 187/139, which equals 1.35. This means that Bonds increased his rate by 35%, much more than any other player. The league column shows the league average. The average ratio is .93, meaning that the average drop off in relative SLG was 7%. So while the typical player who can even keep playing past 35 saw a 7% drop, Bonds saw a 35% gain.

 

PLAYER

Rate <36

SLG

LEAGUE

Rate 36-39

SLG

LEAGUE

Ratio

Barry Bonds

139

0.567

0.409

187

0.809

0.433

1.35

Dummy Hoy

95

0.362

0.382

109

0.405

0.372

1.15

Luke Appling

97

0.403

0.415

109

0.398

0.366

1.12

Eddie Joost

93

0.359

0.384

104

0.402

0.386

1.12

Cy Williams

120

0.447

0.371

132

0.535

0.406

1.10

Hank Aaron

140

0.563

0.402

154

0.599

0.390

1.10

Kid Gleason

85

0.322

0.379

93

0.316

0.340

1.09

Mickey Vernon

108

0.418

0.388

118

0.470

0.396

1.09

Andres Galarraga

121

0.486

0.402

132

0.571

0.431

1.09

Lou Whitaker

105

0.419

0.398

114

0.481

0.422

1.09

Darrell Evans

108

0.419

0.387

117

0.470

0.400

1.08

Marquis Grissom

98

0.410

0.420

106

0.460

0.434

1.08

Brian Downing

105

0.413

0.393

113

0.451

0.399

1.08

Mark McLemore

79

0.334

0.425

85

0.366

0.429

1.08

Bill Bruton

93

0.390

0.418

100

0.401

0.401

1.08

Ozzie Smith

83

0.321

0.389

88

0.354

0.401

1.06

Lave Cross

103

0.393

0.381

109

0.377

0.347

1.06

Doc Cramer

92

0.385

0.421

97

0.352

0.362

1.05

Tony Fernandez

97

0.392

0.403

102

0.445

0.436

1.05

Ron Fairly

104

0.405

0.389

109

0.427

0.391

1.05

Gary Gaetti

106

0.427

0.401

111

0.472

0.425

1.05

Steve Finley

106

0.440

0.415

111

0.481

0.433

1.05

Luis Aparicio

87

0.342

0.392

91

0.343

0.378

1.05

Patsy Donovan

94

0.361

0.383

98

0.338

0.345

1.04

Joe Adcock

118

0.487

0.414

122

0.473

0.389

1.03

 

 

Below are simply the top 10 relative SLGs for players aged 36-39, regardless of how much they improved.

 

PLAYER

Rate

SLG

LEAGUE

Barry Bonds

187

0.809

0.433

Ted Williams

163

0.654

0.400

Hank Aaron

154

0.599

0.390

Babe Ruth

152

0.628

0.412

Willie Stargell

135

0.527

0.390

Cy Williams

132

0.535

0.406

Andres Galarraga

132

0.571

0.431

Norm Cash

128

0.476

0.371

Bob Johnson

127

0.454

0.359

Stan Musial

126

0.524

0.415

 

Now let’s turn to isolated power (ISO). This is SLG minus batting average and gives a measure of extra base power. Below are the top 25 in terms of the percentage improvement in Rate. The average ratio here was .88, meaning that the average player lost 12% in terms of relative ISO.

 

PLAYER

Rate <36

ISO

LEAGUE

Rate 36-39

ISO

LEAGUE

Ratio

Dummy Hoy

79

0.080

0.101

117

0.103

0.088

1.48

Barry Bonds

194

0.278

0.143

279

0.460

0.165

1.44

Mark McLemore

49

0.076

0.155

64

0.104

0.162

1.31

Kid Gleason

59

0.056

0.095

77

0.059

0.077

1.31

Hank Aaron

181

0.250

0.138

234

0.301

0.128

1.29

Mickey Vernon

110

0.132

0.120

137

0.179

0.131

1.25

Eddie Joost

105

0.121

0.116

128

0.157

0.123

1.22

Brian Downing

112

0.147

0.131

134

0.184

0.137

1.20

Bill Bruton

78

0.117

0.150

92

0.132

0.143

1.18

Ron Fairly

108

0.139

0.128

126

0.160

0.127

1.17

Darrell Evans

137

0.168

0.123

159

0.220

0.138

1.16

Lou Whitaker

107

0.145

0.135

123

0.187

0.152

1.15

Sparky Adams

54

0.066

0.123

61

0.069

0.113

1.13

Doc Cramer

62

0.083

0.134

70

0.069

0.099

1.13

Ken GriffeySr.

102

0.130

0.128

115

0.157

0.136

1.13

Cy Williams

169

0.162

0.096

190

0.219

0.115

1.12

Norm Cash

161

0.218

0.135

181

0.212

0.118

1.12

Marquis Grissom

92

0.139

0.151

103

0.170

0.165

1.12

Andres Galarraga

146

0.201

0.138

163

0.262

0.160

1.12

Tony Gwynn

85

0.113

0.132

94

0.148

0.157

1.11

Jake Daubert

100

0.089

0.089

110

0.120

0.109

1.10

Joe Adcock

142

0.207

0.146

156

0.214

0.137

1.10

Steve Finley

112

0.165

0.147

122

0.201

0.165

1.09

Tony Phillips

81

0.112

0.138

88

0.141

0.160

1.09

Gary Gaetti

125

0.173

0.138

133

0.206

0.155

1.06

 

 

Now Bonds only comes in second place here. But he does come in first in ISO if we look at a player’s ISO minus the league average ISO instead of ratios. Here, Bonds is far ahead of anyone else. Under 36, Bonds’ ISO was .135 better than the league average. From 36-39, he was .295 better. So that is an improvement of .160, which is the DIFF column.

 

 

PLAYER

DIFF <36

ISO

LEAGUE

DIFF 36-39

ISO

LEAGUE

DIFF

Barry Bonds

0.135

0.278

0.143

0.295

0.460

0.165

0.160

Hank Aaron

0.112

0.250

0.138

0.173

0.301

0.128

0.061

Andres Galarraga

0.063

0.201

0.138

0.102

0.262

0.160

0.039

Cy Williams

0.066

0.162

0.096

0.104

0.219

0.115

0.038

Darrell Evans

0.045

0.168

0.123

0.082

0.220

0.138

0.037

Dummy Hoy

-0.021

0.080

0.101

0.015

0.103

0.088

0.036

Mickey Vernon

0.012

0.132

0.120

0.048

0.179

0.131

0.036

Brian Downing

0.016

0.147

0.131

0.047

0.184

0.137

0.031

Eddie Joost

0.005

0.121

0.116

0.034

0.157

0.123

0.029

Lou Whitaker

0.010

0.145

0.135

0.035

0.187

0.152

0.025

Bill Bruton

-0.033

0.117

0.150

-0.011

0.132

0.143

0.022

Ron Fairly

0.011

0.139

0.128

0.033

0.160

0.127

0.022

Doc Cramer

-0.051

0.083

0.134

-0.030

0.069

0.099

0.021

Kid Gleason

-0.039

0.056

0.095

-0.018

0.059

0.077

0.021

Mark McLemore

-0.079

0.076

0.155

-0.058

0.104

0.162

0.021

Ken GriffeySr.

0.002

0.130

0.128

0.021

0.157

0.136

0.019

Rafael Palmeiro

0.073

0.220

0.147

0.092

0.254

0.162

0.019

Steve Finley

0.018

0.165

0.147

0.036

0.201

0.165

0.018

Marquis Grissom

-0.012

0.139

0.151

0.005

0.170

0.165

0.017

Gary Gaetti

0.035

0.173

0.138

0.051

0.206

0.155

0.016

Joe Adcock

0.061

0.207

0.146

0.077

0.214

0.137

0.016

Sparky Adams

-0.057

0.066

0.123

-0.044

0.069

0.113

0.013

Edgar Martinez

0.056

0.203

0.147

0.068

0.232

0.164

0.012

Norm Cash

0.083

0.218

0.135

0.094

0.212

0.118

0.011

Luke Appling

-0.039

0.092

0.131

-0.028

0.078

0.106

0.011

 

Below are the top 10 ISOs relative to the league average for ages 36-39, regardless of improvement.

 

PLAYER

RATE

ISO

LEAGUE

Barry Bonds

279

0.460

0.165

Babe Ruth

235

0.298

0.127

Hank Aaron

234

0.301

0.128

Ted Williams

221

0.299

0.136

Willie Stargell

202

0.251

0.124

Cy Williams

190

0.219

0.115

Norm Cash

181

0.212

0.118

Frank Robinson

180

0.214

0.119

Willie McCovey

170

0.211

0.124

Bob Johnson

169

0.163

0.096

 

 

The story for HR% is similar. Bonds is not number 1 here, but he ranks very high. The average ratio here is .84, meaning the average player lost 16% of their relative HR%.

 

 

 

PLAYER

Rate <36

HR%

LEAGUE

Rate 36-39

HR%

LEAGUE

Ratio

Dummy Hoy

58

0.49

0.85

131

0.75

0.57

2.26

Maury Wills

9

0.23

2.48

16

0.37

2.40

1.78

Fred Tenney

49

0.26

0.52

87

0.45

0.52

1.78

Ken Griffey Sr.

79

1.77

2.26

135

3.44

2.55

1.71

Hank Aaron

222

5.87

2.65

355

8.59

2.42

1.60

Mark McLemore

24

0.76

3.10

38

1.23

3.22

1.58

Barry Bonds

245

6.63

2.71

384

12.73

3.31

1.57

Bill Bruton

47

1.39

2.94

72

2.10

2.93

1.53

Tony Gwynn

51

1.22

2.40

78

2.40

3.09

1.53

Doc Cramer

21

0.39

1.85

32

0.38

1.21

1.52

Mickey Vernon

88

1.62

1.84

129

3.10

2.41

1.47

Wally Schang

117

0.90

0.77

166

2.02

1.22

1.42

Eddie Joost

125

2.16

1.73

171

3.62

2.12

1.37

Ernie Lombardi

204

3.04

1.49

273

4.13

1.51

1.34

Ron Fairly

120

2.88

2.41

160

3.62

2.26

1.33

Steve Finley

106

2.97

2.82

137

4.52

3.31

1.29

Billy Shindle

67

0.54

0.81

84

0.50

0.59

1.25

Tony Phillips

67

1.76

2.63

84

2.72

3.23

1.25

Davey Lopes

99

2.15

2.16

124

2.99

2.42

1.25

Marquis Grissom

89

2.62

2.93

111

3.66

3.29

1.25

Brian Downing

130

3.19

2.46

161

4.26

2.65

1.24

Norm Cash

206

5.60

2.72

255

5.70

2.24

1.24

Andres Galarraga

177

4.51

2.55

216

6.85

3.17

1.22

Harry Hooper

124

0.75

0.60

151

1.74

1.16

1.22

Darrell Evans

186

3.98

2.14

224

5.94

2.65

1.20

 

 

If we use a player’s HR% minus the league average, Bonds jumps to first and is far ahead of everyone else. Under 36, Bonds’ HR% was 3.92 percentage points better than average. From 36-39, he was 9.42 percentage points better than average, for a gain of 5.50.

 

 

 

PLAYER

DIFF <36

HR%

LEAGUE

DIFF 36-39

HR%

LEAGUE

DIFF

Barry Bonds

3.92

6.63

2.71

9.42

12.73

3.31

5.50

Hank Aaron

3.22

5.87

2.65

6.17

8.59

2.42

2.95

Andres Galarraga

1.96

4.51

2.55

3.68

6.85

3.17

1.72

Darrell Evans

1.84

3.98

2.14

3.29

5.94

2.65

1.45

Cy Williams

2.30

3.13

0.83

3.73

5.00

1.27

1.43

Ken Griffey Sr.

-0.49

1.77

2.26

0.89

3.44

2.55

1.38

Rafael Palmeiro

2.25

5.10

2.85

3.46

6.69

3.23

1.21

Ernie Lombardi

1.55

3.04

1.49

2.62

4.13

1.51

1.07

Eddie Joost

0.43

2.16

1.73

1.50

3.62

2.12

1.07

Steve Finley

0.15

2.97

2.82

1.21

4.52

3.31

1.06

Mickey Vernon

-0.22

1.62

1.84

0.69

3.10

2.41

0.91

Edgar Martinez

1.11

3.98

2.87

2.01

5.33

3.32

0.90

Ron Fairly

0.47

2.88

2.41

1.36

3.62

2.26

0.89

Brian Downing

0.73

3.19

2.46

1.61

4.26

2.65

0.88

Bill Bruton

-1.55

1.39

2.94

-0.83

2.10

2.93

0.72

Willie Stargell

3.67

5.97

2.30

4.39

6.51

2.12

0.72

Marquis Grissom

-0.31

2.62

2.93

0.37

3.66

3.29

0.68

Wally Schang

0.13

0.90

0.77

0.80

2.02

1.22

0.67

Joe Adcock

2.16

5.00

2.84

2.82

5.60

2.78

0.66

Doc Cramer

-1.46

0.39

1.85

-0.83

0.38

1.21

0.63

Norm Cash

2.88

5.60

2.72

3.46

5.70

2.24

0.58

Davey Lopes

-0.01

2.15

2.16

0.57

2.99

2.42

0.58

Ellis Burks

1.88

4.72

2.84

2.44

5.64

3.20

0.56

Gary Gaetti

1.19

3.84

2.65

1.74

4.77

3.03

0.55

Carlton Fisk

1.76

4.05

2.29

2.30

5.24

2.94

0.54

 

 

Below are the top 10 HR%s relative to the league average for ages 36-39, regardless of improvement.

 

PLAYER

RATE

HR%

LEAGUE

Babe Ruth

500

7.88

1.57

Cy Williams

395

5.00

1.27

Barry Bonds

384

12.73

3.31

Hank Aaron

355

8.59

2.42

Willie Stargell

307

6.51

2.12

Ted Williams

286

7.48

2.61

Ken Williams

283

3.29

1.16

Ernie Lombardi

273

4.13

1.51

Norm Cash

255

5.70

2.24

Willie McCovey

253

5.48

2.16

 

 

Finally, we come to offensive winning percentage (OWP). Here are the top 25 in terms of the older OWP relative to the younger OWP.

 

Player

OWP <36

OWP 36-39

Ratio

Mark McLemore

0.381

0.522

1.37

Luke Appling

0.557

0.686

1.23

Andres Galarraga

0.537

0.653

1.22

Barry Bonds

0.763

0.924

1.21

Tony Fernandez

0.491

0.593

1.21

Cy Williams

0.546

0.648

1.19

Ozzie Smith

0.454

0.522

1.15

Gary Gaetti

0.440

0.505

1.15

Lave Cross

0.467

0.525

1.12

Dummy Hoy

0.554

0.608

1.10

Brian Downing

0.582

0.636

1.09

Mickey Vernon

0.563

0.615

1.09

Joe Adcock

0.571

0.616

1.08

Lou Whitaker

0.585

0.631

1.08

Eddie Joost

0.501

0.538

1.07

Bob Johnson

0.642

0.689

1.07

Gene Woodling

0.614

0.657

1.07

Doc Cramer

0.417

0.446

1.07

Darrell Evans

0.589

0.629

1.07

Joe Kuhel

0.523

0.558

1.07

Hal McRae

0.591

0.629

1.06

Gabby Hartnett

0.605

0.641

1.06

Zack Wheat

0.639

0.677

1.06

Kid Gleason

0.375

0.396

1.06

Tim Wallach

0.479

0.504

1.05

 

If we go with the difference between the older age and the younger age, Bonds jumps to first place.

 

Player

OWP <36

OWP 36-39

DIFF

Barry Bonds

0.763

0.924

0.161

Mark McLemore

0.381

0.522

0.141

Luke Appling

0.557

0.686

0.129

Andres Galarraga

0.537

0.653

0.116

Tony Fernandez

0.491

0.593

0.102

Cy Williams

0.546

0.648

0.102

Ozzie Smith

0.454

0.522

0.068

Gary Gaetti

0.440

0.505

0.065

Lave Cross

0.467

0.525

0.058

Brian Downing

0.582

0.636

0.054

Dummy Hoy

0.554

0.608

0.054

Mickey Vernon

0.563

0.615

0.052

Bob Johnson

0.642

0.689

0.047

Lou Whitaker

0.585

0.631

0.046

Joe Adcock

0.571

0.616

0.045

Gene Woodling

0.614

0.657

0.043

Darrell Evans

0.589

0.629

0.040

Hal McRae

0.591

0.629

0.038

Zack Wheat

0.639

0.677

0.038

Eddie Joost

0.501

0.538

0.037

Gabby Hartnett

0.605

0.641

0.036

Joe Kuhel

0.523

0.558

0.035

Harold Baines

0.582

0.612

0.030

Doc Cramer

0.417

0.446

0.029

Tim Wallach

0.479

0.504

0.025

 

 

Below are the top OWPs for ages 36-39, regardless of improvement.

 

Player

OWP

Barry Bonds

0.924

Ted Williams

0.834

Babe Ruth

0.832

Edgar Martinez

0.743

Hank Aaron

0.736

Bob Johnson

0.689

Ty Cobb

0.689

Honus Wagner

0.688

Luke Appling

0.686

Cap Anson

0.686

 

Below are the top 15 OWPs of all time, regardless of age. Before 2001, no player had reached .924, Bonds’ OWP for the whole period that covers ages 36-39. Notice how unusual it is for someone aged 36-39 to have such a great OWP. It appears that no one has aged as well as Bonds.

 

 

Rank

Player

YEAR

OWP

AGE

1

Barry Bonds

2002

0.942

37

2

Barry Bonds

2004

0.929

39

3

Barry Bonds

2001

0.922

36

4

Mickey Mantle

1957

0.915

25

5

Babe Ruth

1920

0.913

25

6

Fred Dunlap

1884

0.909

25

7

Ted Williams

1941

0.908

22

8

Barry Bonds

2003

0.897

38

9

Babe Ruth

1923

0.896

28

10

Babe Ruth

1921

0.891

26

11

Ted Williams

1957

0.891

38

12

Babe Ruth

1926

0.883

31

13

Ted Williams

1942

0.881

23

14

Pete Browning

1882

0.88

21

15

Babe Ruth

1924

0.879

29

   

 

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